Georgia (Civiqs): Biden +1

[wbrocks67]

Biden 48
Trump 47

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_GA_banner_book_2020_05_h79s1a.pdf

Women: Biden 54, Trump 41
Men: Trump 54, Biden 41
18-34: Biden 54, Trump 34
35-49: Biden 56, Trump 40
50-64: Trump 51, Biden 45
65+: Trump 62, Biden 36

Whites: Trump 68, Biden 25
Blacks: Biden 92, Trump 6
Hispanics: Biden 59, Trump 39

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Georgia President by Civiqs on 2020-05-18

Summary: D: 48%, R: 47%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Brittain33]

Seniors in GA not moving like they appear to be nationally or in Florida.

[Gracile]

Sorry, but it's still not a Toss Up because Amy Walter said it's just not there yet.

[Bidenworth2020]

Unfortunately, it looks like (as is usual in the south) that undecideds are overwhelmingly white people (7% undecided vs. 2% for blacks and Hispanics).

[Lief 🗽]

Very good senate numbers too, looks like basically every Perdue and Collins match-up is a toss-up, and if Loeffler somehow makes it to the run-off, Safe D.

[BudgieForce]

Seniors in GA not moving like they appear to be nationally or in Florida.

Makes sense. Old retired transplants who moved to Florida and Arizona from blue states are probably more flexible than elderly Georgians who have lived in the state the majority of their lives.

[Pollster]

Unfortunately, it looks like (as is usual in the south) that undecideds are overwhelmingly white people (7% undecided vs. 2% for blacks and Hispanics).

Both Trump and Kemp won white people about 75-25, if we give Trump 75% of the white vote in this poll and leave everything else the same, he hovers just around 50% overall. If he loses even a couple percentage points of the white vote, he's losing to Biden (in this poll's model).

[Pollster]

Also, very notable here that people with an unfavorable opinion of both candidates are going for Biden by a staggering 60-2(!!).

[MT Treasurer]

Maybe it flips before IA in 2036

[Bidenworth2020]

Seniors in GA not moving like they appear to be nationally or in Florida.

According to the 2016 exit polls, Trump won seniors in Georgia 67-31. That is a 10 point swing to Biden among seniors.

[wbrocks67]

Seniors in GA not moving like they appear to be nationally or in Florida.

According to the 2016 exit polls, Trump won seniors in Georgia 67-31. That is a 10 point swing to Biden among seniors.

Was just coming in to say this. 10% shift is pretty substantial.

[Person Man]

Seniors in GA not moving like they appear to be nationally or in Florida.

According to the 2016 exit polls, Trump won seniors in Georgia 67-31. That is a 10 point swing to Biden among seniors.

That's what happens when you alienate part of your base. Being weakened by 10 points with a group that is 20% of the electorate would be enough to swing the election in a vacuum from 2016.

Was just coming in to say this. 10% shift is pretty substantial.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Biden is going to win GA.

[Pollster]

Seniors in GA not moving like they appear to be nationally or in Florida.

According to the 2016 exit polls, Trump won seniors in Georgia 67-31. That is a 10 point swing to Biden among seniors.

That's what happens when you alienate part of your base. Being weakened by 10 points with a group that is 20% of the electorate would be enough to swing the election in a vacuum from 2016.

Was just coming in to say this. 10% shift is pretty substantial.

Not only that, but 50-64 year olds also swing 9 points towards Biden here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Voters must understand,  it's a runoff election in the Senate, it was close in 2016 too, but Trump probably wins it

[Podgy the Bear]

Of course, RCP won't place this in their averages.

Biden can't pull it off in Georgia by himself, but along with a solid slate of Senate and House candidates, there's a very good chance.

[President Johnson]

Also, very notable here that people with an unfavorable opinion of both candidates are going for Biden by a staggering 60-2(!!).

Confirms earlier polls we have seen nationally and in states. If my memory in correct, Trump on this group in 2016 by a margin of 8 to 2.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Maybe it flips before IA in 2036

And TX in 2072.

[SN2903]

Biden is going to win GA.

Keep dreaming.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Biden is going to win GA.

Keep dreaming.

Keep sleeping. (Seriously, I don't think Biden will win Georgia, but if Trump loses reelection, he can blame cocky dumb@$$e$ like you)

[Progressive Pessimist]

I guess it really is a tossup. Civiqs tends to be fairly bullish on Trump in my experience. Let's remember that a few weeks back they had that poll with Biden having similar unfavorable numbers to Trump.

[SN2903]

Biden is going to win GA.

Keep dreaming.

Keep sleeping. (Seriously, I don't think Biden will win Georgia, but if Trump loses reelection, he can blame cocky dumb@$$e$ like you)

How is it cocky to say that Trump will win a state that has gone R for decades?

[S019]

Biden is going to win GA.

Keep dreaming.

Keep sleeping. (Seriously, I don't think Biden will win Georgia, but if Trump loses reelection, he can blame cocky dumb@$$e$ like you)

How is it cocky to say that Trump McCain will win a state that has gone R for decades?

In 2008, states like NC and VA which hadn't gone D in decades flipped so...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Biden is going to win GA.

Keep dreaming.

Keep sleeping. (Seriously, I don't think Biden will win Georgia, but if Trump loses reelection, he can blame cocky dumb@$$e$ like you)

How is it cocky to say that Trump will win a state that has gone R for decades?

We both know this is bs and im not going down this rabbit hole with you, but since this is atlas, im sure within the next few minutes (like my friend above me already) you will get torn into again.