Point Blank Political-FL: Biden +0.6/+4.6

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

2149 likely voters
Margin of error 3.5%
Survey period May 14-17

With "Green Party nominee", "Libertarian Party nominee", and "another candidate" as options:
Biden 44.5%
Trump 43.9%
Another candidate 2.3%
Libertarian 1.2%
Green 0.4%
Undecided 7.6%

With only Trump and Biden:
Biden 52.3%
Trump 47.7%

It's Nader time.

[DaleCooper]

This really goes to show how much of a bullet Biden appears to have dodged with Amash dropping out and Ventura not following through on his threat.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ralph Nader's 86 years old.He isn't running.

Maybe an independent campaign from Mark Cuban, for example would get some traction.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Ralph Nader's 86 years old.He isn't running.

Maybe an independent campaign from Mark Cuban, for example would get some traction.

I wasn't expecting Nader specifically, but this poll suggests a third party is primed to fill his unfortunate role. However, I expect third party support to drop over the remaining course of this presidential cycle and reduce the risk of that.

[Bidenworth2020]

Where is the link to this poll's crosstabs?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Where is the link to this poll's crosstabs?

I forgot to post it. My apologies:

https://www.pointblankpolitical.com/may-2020-Florida-general-poll/

[ajc0918]

Skeptical of this poll but it's another point in the Florida average and it seems that Biden is leading that average

[Lisa's voting Biden]

C/D pollster per 538 but reasonable numbers.

[ProudModerate2]

Biden may actually have a shot at winning Florida. Wow.
But it's going to be close, guys. Really close (maybe even Gore-like close).

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Florida President by Other Source on 2020-05-17

Summary: D: 45%, R: 44%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

More realistic than the FL poll that showed +6

[krb08]

This really goes to show how much of a bullet Biden appears to have dodged with Amash dropping out and Ventura not following through on his threat.

And now Mark Cuban says he's considering running, too. Anyone who runs third party is fine with a second term of Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The other FL poll, from Biden +6 was a University poll

[DaleCooper]

Biden may actually have a shot at winning Florida. Wow.
But it's going to be close, guys. Really close (maybe even Gore-like close).

He always had a fair shot at Florida. Florida was always a tossup with a slight Trump lead. As it stands now, it's still a tossup but Biden appears to be favored based on the current polling averages. I find it interesting how it's assumed, perhaps rightly (I'm not sure), that it's a given that Trump will over perform his polling by equal or greater than he did in 2016.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Ralph Nader's 86 years old.He isn't running.

Maybe an independent campaign from Mark Cuban, for example would get some traction.

Would Mini Mike have run if Bernie had won the nomination?

[SN2903]

Green and Libertarian will do better than people think.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Now we're talking. This looks like the most accurate Florida poll yet when it comes to what the winner's margin will actually be, whether it's Biden or Trump.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ralph Nader's 86 years old.He isn't running.

Maybe an independent campaign from Mark Cuban, for example would get some traction.

Would Mini Mike have run if Bernie had won the nomination?

Some states have sore loser laws (though I'm not sure they are constitutional).

I think he would've run, but he wouldn't be on the ballot in several states, depending on how far he'd actually gotten in the primaries.

[Pericles]

Green and Libertarian will do better than people think.

The numbers right now for minor parties are their best-case scenario.