2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

Heres a epiloge to the process which I think matters. In the past two days since the unveiling of the map and it's approval, the two (ex)state senators in tricker races have suspended their campaigns. Gaughran in the 1st cited the removal of many of the areas he once represented from the seat. And now Thomas is exiting from the 4th, even though it likely means he must retire from the senate under (the delayed once cause of master redistricting) the residency requirements. 

Of the two still in Mannion got what he wanted, seemingly cause everyone doesn't want Sarah Hood. And Kennedy in 26 may have similarly been ignored,  we won't know until his primary.

Overall,  it's a sign that the senate was expecting something more partisan and with their interests in mind. Then they got sidelined.

https://twitter.com/_rebeccaclewis/status/1763258094488805798?t=FcZhHLzWcZ6R047O...

[Yoda]

The national climate has also shifted from 2022. It genuinely looked like the GOP would have trifectas in Arizona and Wisconsin, and possibly even Pennsylvania, and a Senate majority that would block every Biden judicial nomination.

The midterms seem to have caused the fever to break with everyone. Yes North Carolina played hardball as both parties do in that state(the lame-duck D justices were retroactively invalidating referendums on the basis they were passed by legislatures elected on maps they had subsequently struck down but which had been upheld by the then-court) but even there they kept four Biden seats rather than going for 11-3 or 12-2 which would have been closer to the Hochulmander. Republicans in Ohio, with a Court majority in hand, could have gone hard for 12-3, but they chose to lock in what turned out to be a relatively soft gerrymander. Meanwhile, SCOTUS paved the way for D gains in Alabama and Louisiana, and it looks like Ds may get parity in Wisconsin.

In short, the Hochulmander is really a relic of a specific national climate in late 2021 and early 2022. One of relentless Republican advance and existential Democratic panic. It is, to put it simply, embarrassing in the same way that a 12-3 or 13-2 map would have been in Ohio. Or impeaching Justices would have been in WI.

This isn't a "deal" but the relative restraint of Republican actors in other states, by contributing to the lower temperature nationally, likely influenced NY Democrats. I suspect if the WI legislature had decided to trigger a constitutional crisis by impeaching the court and/or governor this may have gone differently.

The NY Courts are also part of the greater northeastern culture of soft merit selection which means they are very aware of climate. Rowen Wilson's December decision is much more conciliatory than his early 2022 dissent going out of his way to state that he is in no way reversing the findings of the previous majority on the merits, but merely demanding a legal process. At the end of which any product will need to comply with the constitution.

Just an FYI, this is not what happened at all. Democrats made a strategic decision and dropped their lawsuit against the current maps specifically b/c the new Ohio Supreme Court (with 4 hyper partisan republicans, as opposed to the last court with 3 hyper partisan republicans and 1 moderate justice) would have ruled against them, which would have allowed the republican legislature to do a more aggressive gerrymander. The new maps are also not "locked in", they are in place until Ohio passes real gerrymandering reform this November and we get new legislative and Congressional maps in '26.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I have decided I will not be voting for any Dems at the State Level in NY in 2024 unless individual candidates show they have the balls to stand up to nepotism and power structure that plagues the state party. There are quite a few people I will be working to primary out.

This is not specific to the maps - the maps are a culmination of disappointments from NY Dems from complete failure to address the issue of housing to wasting tend of millions of dollars on basic infrastructure projects. My money feels like it's going into a sinkhole with no accountability, and too many politicians in the state care more about political posturing and nepotism than making my quality of life better.

Still voting for Biden and federal Dems ofc.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One funfact I'm pretty surprised by is Schumer 2022 still carried the new NY-19 by nearly 1%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just spoke to someone who was in the loop about how and why the maps were drawn; friend of the main map-drawer and engaged in the legal world that surrounds it. Here were my takeaways:

1. Democrats were frankly scared, but also acknowledged the Cervas court map all in all was pretty good for them compared to most other "neutral" possibilities. Democrats knew if they drew a map which the court overturned again, chances are they would end up with a worse map than what they started with. While it is true the current court makeup is more favorable to Democrats than before, it still wasn't enough for them to feel confident.

2. Even in the dreadful NY environment of 2022, they didn't lose seats like NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22 by much, and generally feel good about the longer term trajectories in the Hudson Valley. They didn't feel particular reason to make an effort to shore up seats like NY-17 and NY-19 for this reason; they see them as very winnable in their current configs, and expect them to possibly get bluer. The person didn't say this, but I will add the court map basically made NY-17, 18, and 19 all as blue as possible before starting to do blatant gerrymandering like cracking southern Westchester County between NY-16 and NY-17 or having NY-19 taking in parts of Albany.

3. Democrats feel more pessimistic about their longer term trajectories in Long Island. Even though NY-01 went from a narrow Biden seat to Trump seat on the new map, Democrats think NY-03 is more vulnerable for Dems than NY-01 is for Rs, meaning making NY-03 bluer at the expense of NY-01 was worth it. After that, it's pretty hard to make either one of NY-01 or NY-02 actually D-leaning without doing something that would be a liability in court. Also making NY-01 redder was a bone they were willing to throw to Rs to reduce the chances of a challenge suit.

4. Dems largely didn't touch NYC out of the fear that any change could bring up some sort of VRA suit; this is likely part of the reason NY-11 wasn't touched (touching NY-11 also risks another Republican-backed suit).

Person also admitted around the margins incumbents desires were "considered".

Overall, the person I was chatting with was quite progressive and seemed to share some of my frustrations, but came at it more through the lens of "Republicans put us in this place" than blaming Democrats for being cowardly

TLDR: Democrats did the maximum they felt they could do before risking another court challenge that could potentially end them up in a worse place than where they started.

[SilverStar]

Just spoke to someone who was in the loop about how and why the maps were drawn; friend of the main map-drawer and engaged in the legal world that surrounds it. Here were my takeaways:

1. Democrats were frankly scared, but also acknowledged the Cervas court map all in all was pretty good for them compared to most other "neutral" possibilities. Democrats knew if they drew a map which the court overturned again, chances are they would end up with a worse map than what they started with. While it is true the current court makeup is more favorable to Democrats than before, it still wasn't enough for them to feel confident.

2. Even in the dreadful NY environment of 2022, they didn't lose seats like NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22 by much, and generally feel good about the longer term trajectories in the Hudson Valley. They didn't feel particular reason to make an effort to shore up seats like NY-17 and NY-19 for this reason; they see them as very winnable in their current configs, and expect them to possibly get bluer. The person didn't say this, but I will add the court map basically made NY-17, 18, and 19 all as blue as possible before starting to do blatant gerrymandering like cracking southern Westchester County between NY-16 and NY-17 or having NY-19 taking in parts of Albany.

3. Democrats feel more pessimistic about their longer term trajectories in Long Island. Even though NY-01 went from a narrow Biden seat to Trump seat on the new map, Democrats think NY-03 is more vulnerable for Dems than NY-01 is for Rs, meaning making NY-03 bluer at the expense of NY-01 was worth it. After that, it's pretty hard to make either one of NY-01 or NY-02 actually D-leaning without doing something that would be a liability in court. Also making NY-01 redder was a bone they were willing to throw to Rs to reduce the chances of a challenge suit.

4. Dems largely didn't touch NYC out of the fear that any change could bring up some sort of VRA suit; this is likely part of the reason NY-11 wasn't touched (touching NY-11 also risks another Republican-backed suit).

Person also admitted around the margins incumbents desires were "considered".

Overall, the person I was chatting with was quite progressive and seemed to share some of my frustrations, but came at it more through the lens of "Republicans put us in this place" than blaming Democrats for being cowardly

TLDR: Democrats did the maximum they felt they could do before risking another court challenge that could potentially end them up in a worse place than where they started.

These are awkward excuses,the Court wouldn't throw out the map.
It's a 4-3 hack Court.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just spoke to someone who was in the loop about how and why the maps were drawn; friend of the main map-drawer and engaged in the legal world that surrounds it. Here were my takeaways:

1. Democrats were frankly scared, but also acknowledged the Cervas court map all in all was pretty good for them compared to most other "neutral" possibilities. Democrats knew if they drew a map which the court overturned again, chances are they would end up with a worse map than what they started with. While it is true the current court makeup is more favorable to Democrats than before, it still wasn't enough for them to feel confident.

2. Even in the dreadful NY environment of 2022, they didn't lose seats like NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22 by much, and generally feel good about the longer term trajectories in the Hudson Valley. They didn't feel particular reason to make an effort to shore up seats like NY-17 and NY-19 for this reason; they see them as very winnable in their current configs, and expect them to possibly get bluer. The person didn't say this, but I will add the court map basically made NY-17, 18, and 19 all as blue as possible before starting to do blatant gerrymandering like cracking southern Westchester County between NY-16 and NY-17 or having NY-19 taking in parts of Albany.

3. Democrats feel more pessimistic about their longer term trajectories in Long Island. Even though NY-01 went from a narrow Biden seat to Trump seat on the new map, Democrats think NY-03 is more vulnerable for Dems than NY-01 is for Rs, meaning making NY-03 bluer at the expense of NY-01 was worth it. After that, it's pretty hard to make either one of NY-01 or NY-02 actually D-leaning without doing something that would be a liability in court. Also making NY-01 redder was a bone they were willing to throw to Rs to reduce the chances of a challenge suit.

4. Dems largely didn't touch NYC out of the fear that any change could bring up some sort of VRA suit; this is likely part of the reason NY-11 wasn't touched (touching NY-11 also risks another Republican-backed suit).

Person also admitted around the margins incumbents desires were "considered".

Overall, the person I was chatting with was quite progressive and seemed to share some of my frustrations, but came at it more through the lens of "Republicans put us in this place" than blaming Democrats for being cowardly

TLDR: Democrats did the maximum they felt they could do before risking another court challenge that could potentially end them up in a worse place than where they started.

These are awkward excuses,the Court wouldn't throw out the map.
It's a 4-3 hack Court.

Most thought the original court would choose not to strike down and redraw the maps with a special master - Dems are probably still scarred from that. It also wasn't like in the original opinion all 3 liberal dissents were hard; justice Troutman agreed with the fact the map was illegal but just thought the remedy should be different (the legistlature should get a chance to redraw)

[SilverStar]

Just spoke to someone who was in the loop about how and why the maps were drawn; friend of the main map-drawer and engaged in the legal world that surrounds it. Here were my takeaways:

1. Democrats were frankly scared, but also acknowledged the Cervas court map all in all was pretty good for them compared to most other "neutral" possibilities. Democrats knew if they drew a map which the court overturned again, chances are they would end up with a worse map than what they started with. While it is true the current court makeup is more favorable to Democrats than before, it still wasn't enough for them to feel confident.

2. Even in the dreadful NY environment of 2022, they didn't lose seats like NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22 by much, and generally feel good about the longer term trajectories in the Hudson Valley. They didn't feel particular reason to make an effort to shore up seats like NY-17 and NY-19 for this reason; they see them as very winnable in their current configs, and expect them to possibly get bluer. The person didn't say this, but I will add the court map basically made NY-17, 18, and 19 all as blue as possible before starting to do blatant gerrymandering like cracking southern Westchester County between NY-16 and NY-17 or having NY-19 taking in parts of Albany.

3. Democrats feel more pessimistic about their longer term trajectories in Long Island. Even though NY-01 went from a narrow Biden seat to Trump seat on the new map, Democrats think NY-03 is more vulnerable for Dems than NY-01 is for Rs, meaning making NY-03 bluer at the expense of NY-01 was worth it. After that, it's pretty hard to make either one of NY-01 or NY-02 actually D-leaning without doing something that would be a liability in court. Also making NY-01 redder was a bone they were willing to throw to Rs to reduce the chances of a challenge suit.

4. Dems largely didn't touch NYC out of the fear that any change could bring up some sort of VRA suit; this is likely part of the reason NY-11 wasn't touched (touching NY-11 also risks another Republican-backed suit).

Person also admitted around the margins incumbents desires were "considered".

Overall, the person I was chatting with was quite progressive and seemed to share some of my frustrations, but came at it more through the lens of "Republicans put us in this place" than blaming Democrats for being cowardly

TLDR: Democrats did the maximum they felt they could do before risking another court challenge that could potentially end them up in a worse place than where they started.

These are awkward excuses,the Court wouldn't throw out the map.
It's a 4-3 hack Court.

justice Troutman agreed with the fact the map was illegal but just thought the remedy should be different (the legistlature should get a chance to redraw)

No,she said that Democrats broke the process but the map itself wasn't unconstitutional.

[wnwnwn]

I know its all said and done, but I will anyway share this map idea where reps are reduced to 3 districts and there are 4 majority black non-hispanic districts (including a New Rochelle - White Plains - Bronx - Harlmen district).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9d487553-aa43-4062-80e1-bd2af9980cb1

I don´t think there will be any VRA lawsuit in this state, but there is always a possibily, especially considering that Harlem was once the place of Clayton Powell's seat ad there could be some nostalgia on the old days where it was a center of black USA.

[Stuart98]

New York map as many county splits as the adopted map that went 23-3 in 2022 congress




Note that all three of the competitive long island seats on this map are bluer than on the adopted map, this business of "we can't make 1 bluer because then we'd make 3 redder" was a bunch of nonsense.

[Dan the Roman]

Just spoke to someone who was in the loop about how and why the maps were drawn; friend of the main map-drawer and engaged in the legal world that surrounds it. Here were my takeaways:

1. Democrats were frankly scared, but also acknowledged the Cervas court map all in all was pretty good for them compared to most other "neutral" possibilities. Democrats knew if they drew a map which the court overturned again, chances are they would end up with a worse map than what they started with. While it is true the current court makeup is more favorable to Democrats than before, it still wasn't enough for them to feel confident.

2. Even in the dreadful NY environment of 2022, they didn't lose seats like NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22 by much, and generally feel good about the longer term trajectories in the Hudson Valley. They didn't feel particular reason to make an effort to shore up seats like NY-17 and NY-19 for this reason; they see them as very winnable in their current configs, and expect them to possibly get bluer. The person didn't say this, but I will add the court map basically made NY-17, 18, and 19 all as blue as possible before starting to do blatant gerrymandering like cracking southern Westchester County between NY-16 and NY-17 or having NY-19 taking in parts of Albany.

3. Democrats feel more pessimistic about their longer term trajectories in Long Island. Even though NY-01 went from a narrow Biden seat to Trump seat on the new map, Democrats think NY-03 is more vulnerable for Dems than NY-01 is for Rs, meaning making NY-03 bluer at the expense of NY-01 was worth it. After that, it's pretty hard to make either one of NY-01 or NY-02 actually D-leaning without doing something that would be a liability in court. Also making NY-01 redder was a bone they were willing to throw to Rs to reduce the chances of a challenge suit.

4. Dems largely didn't touch NYC out of the fear that any change could bring up some sort of VRA suit; this is likely part of the reason NY-11 wasn't touched (touching NY-11 also risks another Republican-backed suit).

Person also admitted around the margins incumbents desires were "considered".

Overall, the person I was chatting with was quite progressive and seemed to share some of my frustrations, but came at it more through the lens of "Republicans put us in this place" than blaming Democrats for being cowardly

TLDR: Democrats did the maximum they felt they could do before risking another court challenge that could potentially end them up in a worse place than where they started.

These are awkward excuses,the Court wouldn't throw out the map.
It's a 4-3 hack Court.

justice Troutman agreed with the fact the map was illegal but just thought the remedy should be different (the legistlature should get a chance to redraw)

No,she said that Democrats broke the process but the map itself wasn't unconstitutional.

I actually went back and checked given the back and forth. At the time the minority does spend extensive time addressing each challenge(leaving a very glaring opening on the legislative record BTW which I suspect was the issue with repealing the 2% law) but Troutman very explicitly is silent on the issue.

It's closer to Barrett on the 14th Amendment case. She says she does not agree with the majority analysis of the substantive issue but then says that is because there is no need to go into it once the maps are established to be the product of an illegal process. The most she ventures is to suggest that the majority fails to fashion a workable standard.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Honestly, I was okay with the old map as well. If Dems cannot win +9 +7 +14 Biden seats, they don't deserve the house majority. They should campaign and work for their constituency instead of wasting resources to shore up congressional districts.