Rate TX 6

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely R, Wright wins 52-46.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Is Stephen Daniel particularly noteworthy? Any better than Jana Lynne Sanchez?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Safe R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Is Stephen Daniel particularly noteworthy? Any better than Jana Lynne Sanchez?

No. Personally called my dad and asked for donations today, that is what sparked this thread. He’s not raised much and he is pretty much a generic D.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Is Stephen Daniel particularly noteworthy? Any better than Jana Lynne Sanchez?

No. Personally called my dad and asked for donations today, that is what sparked this thread. He’s not raised much and he is pretty much a generic D.

Still think it's a Tossup, but Daniel is kind of a dud so Wright might outperform Trump. I wouldn't count this one out though.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Is Stephen Daniel particularly noteworthy? Any better than Jana Lynne Sanchez?

No. Personally called my dad and asked for donations today, that is what sparked this thread. He’s not raised much and he is pretty much a generic D.

Still think it's a Tossup, but Daniel is kind of a dud so Wright might outperform Trump. I wouldn't count this one out though.

How is it a tossup?

[The Mikado]

Is Stephen Daniel particularly noteworthy? Any better than Jana Lynne Sanchez?

No. Personally called my dad and asked for donations today, that is what sparked this thread. He’s not raised much and he is pretty much a generic D.

Still think it's a Tossup, but Daniel is kind of a dud so Wright might outperform Trump. I wouldn't count this one out though.

This race is not a Tossup. It's not absolutely completely Safe R, but it's closer to Safe than Likely.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

TX is a Tossup. If TX flips to Biden, he will win this district. It voted for Cruz 51-48, and given suburban trends, this on definitely votes D in a Biden midtern. And again, candidate quality is overrated. Yes, Daniel is a lousy recruit but given polarization it's possible it doesnt make a difference. I shouldnt have said tossup, it's more Lean R. And of course, we cant underestimate the incompetency of the dccc, which is wasting money trying to win ME-02 NY-22 instead

[Libertas Vel Mors]

TX is a Tossup. If TX flips to Biden, he will win this district. It voted for Cruz 51-48, and given suburban trends, this on definitely votes D in a Biden midtern. And again, candidate quality is overrated. Yes, Daniel is a lousy recruit but given polarization it's possible it doesnt make a difference. I shouldnt have said tossup, it's more Lean R. And of course, we cant underestimate the incompetency of the dccc, which is wasting money trying to win ME-02 NY-22 instead

It voted for Trump 54.2-42. If you think this district is "tossup to lean r," what do you think TX-24 is? Safe D?

[Politician]

Safe R (sane)

[We Live in Black and White]

For a second, I got Wright and Roy confused as to who barely won against an absolute nobody in 2018.

Likely R.

[Gracile]

Likely R. It is heading in the Democrats' direction slightly, but I think 2020 would have to be a pretty sizable landslide for them to win it.

[Yellowhammer]

Safe R

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

TX is a Tossup. If TX flips to Biden, he will win this district. It voted for Cruz 51-48, and given suburban trends, this on definitely votes D in a Biden midtern. And again, candidate quality is overrated. Yes, Daniel is a lousy recruit but given polarization it's possible it doesnt make a difference. I shouldnt have said tossup, it's more Lean R. And of course, we cant underestimate the incompetency of the dccc, which is wasting money trying to win ME-02 NY-22 instead

It voted for Trump 54.2-42. If you think this district is "tossup to lean r," what do you think TX-24 is? Safe D?

It voted for Cruz by 3 pts even though he had a 51-39 approval rating
And I dont want to hear about "muh D+9 year" You had GOP turnout through the roof and yet Cruz still had still had the weakest performance of any republican in recent TX history.
Trump is toxic in areas like these, and no, incumbency will not help. But fine, write this off af safe R. Just dont be surprised if he loses.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Safe R (sane)

Right, because a district that voted for Cruz by 3 pts(his statewide margin) is totally Safe R.

[Xing]

Likely R, close to Safe.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Safe R (sane)

Right, because a district that voted for Cruz by 3 pts(his statewide margin) is totally Safe R.

No, but the state as a whole is Lean R, turnout here was offset by Tarrant being a disproportionate % of the vote, and even if Trump loses here it's unlikely to flip (in a wave big enough for Trump to lose here, the district would probably pull a 2008 CA-25), meaning it's Safe R. Presidentially it is Likely R.

[MT Treasurer]

Right between Lean and Likely R, but voted Lean R because I do expect an underwhelming margin, Cruz only won by 3 points, and TX is likely to be fairly close in 2020 (especially in this environment). There are more promising targets for Democrats even with trends in mind, but TX-06 flipping by a point or so shouldn’t be that surprising either.

[Politician]

Safe R (sane)

Right, because a district that voted for Cruz by 3 pts(his statewide margin) is totally Safe R.

It's not just "trends". The Democrats don't have a good candidate, aren't targeting this race, and Wright is likely to outrun Trump by a significant margin.