Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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Posts: 4,719
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« on: May 27, 2020, 12:08:21 AM » |
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Sure, why not make myself look like a total fool years from now?
Not to be taken seriously.
Starting Assumptions:
Present trends mostly continue to 2030
My belief about a Republican ceiling in Minnesota proves correct, causing the state to take much longer to flip than most expect
Georgia and North Carolina remain extremely inelastic
Age demographics keep Florida Republican, but just barely - it almost flips in virtually every election.
270towin maps because I'm lazy.
2020:
D victory, Arizona saves us from having to watch Wisconsin become the next Florida 2000. Trump throws a huge fit over the mail-in ballots. Several recounts occur, but the results do not substantially change. Wisconsin is never conclusively called, but it ends up not mattering.
2024 (using old electoral vote counts, but shouldn't affect it too much):
D victory by Biden's VP, by a slightly smaller PV margin but with more EVs thanks to different states. If Biden's VP is not progressive herself, she chooses a progressive running mate. This administration is effectively a continuation of the Biden one. Georgia and North Carolina form a pair akin to Indiana and Missouri in 2008, and Texas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are also extremely close. The Republicans also successfully flip Maine's statewide vote, but struggle to make further advances in New England.
2028 (still using old numbers oops):
An unremarkable Democrat (like, Tim Kaine-level unremarkable) wins, thanks almost entirely to an extremely Dem-favoring map, clinging on to Minnesota and the new inelastic Democratic southern states by tiny margins. If the candidate loses the popular vote, the Republicans immediately do a total 180 on the Electoral College. The Democrats continue to be far too forgiving of Republican hypocrisy and agree to abolish it, and the president is mostly a status quo maintainer, preventing a 2010-style Republican wave.
2032:
No map because no EC. A Republican victory by a comfortable, but not huge, margin. Maybe around 3.5%. After repeated failures running Trumpian candidates, the candidate is moderate, maybe between Hogan and Romney, and regains some suburban territory that the party had previously lost. Though it no longer matters, the Republicans finally narrowly win Minnesota, breaking a streak of 14 consecutive Dem wins in the state and making it officially a swing state, while Democrats have a strong showing in Utah and Montana, heralding possible future flips.
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