Biden's campaign strongest since Obama 08?

[SN2903]

Too early to say. There really hasn't been a campaign yet. I think when things really heat up in Aug and Sept he is going to collapse. Not collapse, as in Trump wins in a landslide ,collapse as in his slight lead will turn into a comfortable small lead for Trump (5-7 pt swing).  There are already warning signs since he has been fumbing on online zoom podcasts even with all this time to prepare at home. I think once the campaigning starts again he is not goign to be able to handle the criticism.  Hillary is a lot tougher than Biden and I do think Biden is the weakest democratic nominee since Dukakis in '88 (yes weaker than Kerry). I don't think he is going to be able to handle the attacks the RNC and Trump are going to throw at him. It's going to get nasty very soon.

I agree with a previous poster that Trump's campaign has not been as strong as 2016 so far. That is obvious, but it doesn't need to be. That was a masterful campaign. Obama's 2012 campaign while good was nowhere near as good as 2008 and he still won. Trump just has to get over the finish line which I believe he will do.

Huh? Obama's 2012 Campaign was much better then his 2008, they successfully painted Romney as an out of touch plutocrat early and it stuck. What does the RNC/Trump attack Biden on? China, they've already spent millions on ads to attach him to Biden and they haven't been effective, while Biden/Biden allied PACs have been hammering Trump on everything from Healthcare to China very effectively.

Dude. People aren't focused on politics yet. Wait till Aug and Sept and wait till the economy starts coming back this summer. By the RNC Trump will have a slight lead. Trust me.

Trumps own Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell just said yesterday that he thinks the US economy will not recover until late 2021.....

Full recovery. It can't get worse than now. Business is gradually re-opening.

[roxas11]

Too early to say. There really hasn't been a campaign yet. I think when things really heat up in Aug and Sept he is going to collapse. Not collapse, as in Trump wins in a landslide ,collapse as in his slight lead will turn into a comfortable small lead for Trump (5-7 pt swing).  There are already warning signs since he has been fumbing on online zoom podcasts even with all this time to prepare at home. I think once the campaigning starts again he is not goign to be able to handle the criticism.  Hillary is a lot tougher than Biden and I do think Biden is the weakest democratic nominee since Dukakis in '88 (yes weaker than Kerry). I don't think he is going to be able to handle the attacks the RNC and Trump are going to throw at him. It's going to get nasty very soon.

I agree with a previous poster that Trump's campaign has not been as strong as 2016 so far. That is obvious, but it doesn't need to be. That was a masterful campaign. Obama's 2012 campaign while good was nowhere near as good as 2008 and he still won. Trump just has to get over the finish line which I believe he will do.

Huh? Obama's 2012 Campaign was much better then his 2008, they successfully painted Romney as an out of touch plutocrat early and it stuck. What does the RNC/Trump attack Biden on? China, they've already spent millions on ads to attach him to Biden and they haven't been effective, while Biden/Biden allied PACs have been hammering Trump on everything from Healthcare to China very effectively.

Dude. People aren't focused on politics yet. Wait till Aug and Sept and wait till the economy starts coming back this summer. By the RNC Trump will have a slight lead. Trust me.

Trumps own Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell just said yesterday that he thinks the US economy will not recover until late 2021.....

Full recovery. It can't get worse than now. Business is gradually re-opening.

you are right It cant get worse but CBO is projecting it to be a while before things truly get better

this is what CBO is currently projecting for 2020 and 2021



so even if Business gradually re-open as you say
Unemployment will still be over 11 percent by the end of the year

[Orwell]

Too early to say. There really hasn't been a campaign yet. I think when things really heat up in Aug and Sept he is going to collapse. Not collapse, as in Trump wins in a landslide ,collapse as in his slight lead will turn into a comfortable small lead for Trump (5-7 pt swing).  There are already warning signs since he has been fumbing on online zoom podcasts even with all this time to prepare at home. I think once the campaigning starts again he is not goign to be able to handle the criticism.  Hillary is a lot tougher than Biden and I do think Biden is the weakest democratic nominee since Dukakis in '88 (yes weaker than Kerry). I don't think he is going to be able to handle the attacks the RNC and Trump are going to throw at him. It's going to get nasty very soon.

I agree with a previous poster that Trump's campaign has not been as strong as 2016 so far. That is obvious, but it doesn't need to be. That was a masterful campaign. Obama's 2012 campaign while good was nowhere near as good as 2008 and he still won. Trump just has to get over the finish line which I believe he will do.

Huh? Obama's 2012 Campaign was much better then his 2008, they successfully painted Romney as an out of touch plutocrat early and it stuck. What does the RNC/Trump attack Biden on? China, they've already spent millions on ads to attach him to Biden and they haven't been effective, while Biden/Biden allied PACs have been hammering Trump on everything from Healthcare to China very effectively.

Dude. People aren't focused on politics yet. Wait till Aug and Sept and wait till the economy starts coming back this summer. By the RNC Trump will have a slight lead. Trust me.

Trumps own Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell just said yesterday that he thinks the US economy will not recover until late 2021.....

Full recovery. It can't get worse than now. Business is gradually re-opening.

you are right It cant get worse but CBO is projecting it be a while before things truly get better

this is what CBO is currently projecting for 2020 and 2021



so even if Business gradually re-opening as you say Unemployment will still be over 11 percent by the end of the year

Biden is running a good ad campaign and has the full might of the DNC and Democratic donors behind him, so I don't think we'll see your Trump surge in 2020.

[SN2903]

Too early to say. There really hasn't been a campaign yet. I think when things really heat up in Aug and Sept he is going to collapse. Not collapse, as in Trump wins in a landslide ,collapse as in his slight lead will turn into a comfortable small lead for Trump (5-7 pt swing).  There are already warning signs since he has been fumbing on online zoom podcasts even with all this time to prepare at home. I think once the campaigning starts again he is not goign to be able to handle the criticism.  Hillary is a lot tougher than Biden and I do think Biden is the weakest democratic nominee since Dukakis in '88 (yes weaker than Kerry). I don't think he is going to be able to handle the attacks the RNC and Trump are going to throw at him. It's going to get nasty very soon.

I agree with a previous poster that Trump's campaign has not been as strong as 2016 so far. That is obvious, but it doesn't need to be. That was a masterful campaign. Obama's 2012 campaign while good was nowhere near as good as 2008 and he still won. Trump just has to get over the finish line which I believe he will do.

Huh? Obama's 2012 Campaign was much better then his 2008, they successfully painted Romney as an out of touch plutocrat early and it stuck. What does the RNC/Trump attack Biden on? China, they've already spent millions on ads to attach him to Biden and they haven't been effective, while Biden/Biden allied PACs have been hammering Trump on everything from Healthcare to China very effectively.

Dude. People aren't focused on politics yet. Wait till Aug and Sept and wait till the economy starts coming back this summer. By the RNC Trump will have a slight lead. Trust me.

Trumps own Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell just said yesterday that he thinks the US economy will not recover until late 2021.....

Full recovery. It can't get worse than now. Business is gradually re-opening.

you are right It cant get worse but CBO is projecting it be a while before things truly get better

this is what CBO is currently projecting for 2020 and 2021



so even if Business gradually re-opening as you say Unemployment will still be over 11 percent by the end of the year

Biden is running a good ad campaign and has the full might of the DNC and Democratic donors behind him, so I don't think we'll see your Trump surge in 2020.

There's going to be a Trump surge. The question is when.

[Orwell]

Too early to say. There really hasn't been a campaign yet. I think when things really heat up in Aug and Sept he is going to collapse. Not collapse, as in Trump wins in a landslide ,collapse as in his slight lead will turn into a comfortable small lead for Trump (5-7 pt swing).  There are already warning signs since he has been fumbing on online zoom podcasts even with all this time to prepare at home. I think once the campaigning starts again he is not goign to be able to handle the criticism.  Hillary is a lot tougher than Biden and I do think Biden is the weakest democratic nominee since Dukakis in '88 (yes weaker than Kerry). I don't think he is going to be able to handle the attacks the RNC and Trump are going to throw at him. It's going to get nasty very soon.

I agree with a previous poster that Trump's campaign has not been as strong as 2016 so far. That is obvious, but it doesn't need to be. That was a masterful campaign. Obama's 2012 campaign while good was nowhere near as good as 2008 and he still won. Trump just has to get over the finish line which I believe he will do.

Huh? Obama's 2012 Campaign was much better then his 2008, they successfully painted Romney as an out of touch plutocrat early and it stuck. What does the RNC/Trump attack Biden on? China, they've already spent millions on ads to attach him to Biden and they haven't been effective, while Biden/Biden allied PACs have been hammering Trump on everything from Healthcare to China very effectively.

Dude. People aren't focused on politics yet. Wait till Aug and Sept and wait till the economy starts coming back this summer. By the RNC Trump will have a slight lead. Trust me.

Trumps own Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell just said yesterday that he thinks the US economy will not recover until late 2021.....

Full recovery. It can't get worse than now. Business is gradually re-opening.

you are right It cant get worse but CBO is projecting it be a while before things truly get better

this is what CBO is currently projecting for 2020 and 2021



so even if Business gradually re-opening as you say Unemployment will still be over 11 percent by the end of the year

Biden is running a good ad campaign and has the full might of the DNC and Democratic donors behind him, so I don't think we'll see your Trump surge in 2020.

There's going to be a Trump surge. The question is when.

Just like the Hoover surge in 1932?

[Adam Griffin]

No. Obama's 2012 campaign structurally was the strongest campaign since Bill Clinton at minimum, with a combination of powerful, consistent messaging and mass mobilization. Even his 2008 campaign doesn't compare to the sheer power his re-election campaign brought to the table given real-world circumstances and the overcoming of very strong trends that historically would have led to his defeat; his '08 campaign did in fact have greater mobilization of voters and a better electoral performance, but was fueled mostly by the collapse of the GOP and an abstract "change" narrative.

Biden is - as he has been throughout all of this - riding on his name alone and the fact that he's currently immune from being immersed in many of the unscripted, uncontrollable events that highlight his gaffe-prone nature, his alleged mental health and other negative characteristics. His campaign is still hollow, bare-bones and minimalist in terms of any of the traditional metrics by which campaigns are judged at this point in the cycle. And before anybody wants to yell "corona!", remember that all of these factors were present in his campaign well before this pandemic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It is and it isn't.

I doubt that Biden will come close to replicating the excitement Obama had for his candidacy, but Biden could potentially come close to winning by Obama's margins due to the somewhat similar environment sweeping him to victory. Like in 2008 we have a Republican administration who failed at addressing and/or preventing a major crisis that has affected every American's life. The only difference is that this time the Democrat is running against that administration itself.

That's for now though, of course. It overall might still be too early to say, as always.

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

I’d say stronger. Probably the best since John Kerry

[Bidenworth2020]

No. Obama's 2012 campaign structurally was the strongest campaign since Bill Clinton at minimum, with a combination of powerful, consistent messaging and mass mobilization. Even his 2008 campaign doesn't compare to the sheer power his re-election campaign brought to the table given real-world circumstances and the overcoming of very strong trends that historically would have led to his defeat; his '08 campaign did in fact have greater mobilization of voters and a better electoral performance, but was fueled mostly by the collapse of the GOP and an abstract "change" narrative.

Biden is - as he has been throughout all of this - riding on his name alone and the fact that he's currently immune from being immersed in many of the unscripted, uncontrollable events that highlight his gaffe-prone nature, his alleged mental health and other negative characteristics. His campaign is still hollow, bare-bones and minimalist in terms of any of the traditional metrics by which campaigns are judged at this point in the cycle. And before anybody wants to yell "corona!", remember that all of these factors were present in his campaign well before this pandemic.

I don't know how you can really say that he is only "immune" to this because of limited exposure due to the pandemic when he won the primary easily (at least post-SC) with these "negative characteristics" still very much on display.

[Adam Griffin]

No. Obama's 2012 campaign structurally was the strongest campaign since Bill Clinton at minimum, with a combination of powerful, consistent messaging and mass mobilization. Even his 2008 campaign doesn't compare to the sheer power his re-election campaign brought to the table given real-world circumstances and the overcoming of very strong trends that historically would have led to his defeat; his '08 campaign did in fact have greater mobilization of voters and a better electoral performance, but was fueled mostly by the collapse of the GOP and an abstract "change" narrative.

Biden is - as he has been throughout all of this - riding on his name alone and the fact that he's currently immune from being immersed in many of the unscripted, uncontrollable events that highlight his gaffe-prone nature, his alleged mental health and other negative characteristics. His campaign is still hollow, bare-bones and minimalist in terms of any of the traditional metrics by which campaigns are judged at this point in the cycle. And before anybody wants to yell "corona!", remember that all of these factors were present in his campaign well before this pandemic.

I don't know how you can really say that he is only "immune" to this because of limited exposure due to the pandemic when he won the primary easily (at least post-SC) with these "negative characteristics" still very much on display.

The Democratic primary electorate and the American GE electorate aren't anywhere close to being identical; a majority of the party is now fundamentally conditioned to support whomever's "turn" it's considered to be and/or defer to whomever's name they recognize most (in contrast to the country, which loves "change"). Biden won in spite of his problems (like Clinton), but what allowed him to win the nomination is not indicative of having a strong GE campaign.

[Orwell]

No. Obama's 2012 campaign structurally was the strongest campaign since Bill Clinton at minimum, with a combination of powerful, consistent messaging and mass mobilization. Even his 2008 campaign doesn't compare to the sheer power his re-election campaign brought to the table given real-world circumstances and the overcoming of very strong trends that historically would have led to his defeat; his '08 campaign did in fact have greater mobilization of voters and a better electoral performance, but was fueled mostly by the collapse of the GOP and an abstract "change" narrative.

Biden is - as he has been throughout all of this - riding on his name alone and the fact that he's currently immune from being immersed in many of the unscripted, uncontrollable events that highlight his gaffe-prone nature, his alleged mental health and other negative characteristics. His campaign is still hollow, bare-bones and minimalist in terms of any of the traditional metrics by which campaigns are judged at this point in the cycle. And before anybody wants to yell "corona!", remember that all of these factors were present in his campaign well before this pandemic.

I don't know how you can really say that he is only "immune" to this because of limited exposure due to the pandemic when he won the primary easily (at least post-SC) with these "negative characteristics" still very much on display.

The Democratic primary electorate and the American GE electorate aren't anywhere close to being identical; a majority of the party is now fundamentally conditioned to support whomever's "turn" it's considered to be and/or defer to whomever's name they recognize most (in contrast to the country, which loves "change"). Biden won in spite of his problems (like Clinton), but what allowed him to win the nomination is not indicative of having a strong GE campaign.

He basically won the primary the same way McCain did in 2008, he collapsed in polls (for McCain it was in the summer/fall of 2007) and then he put all his chips in one basket. If McCain lost in New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Florida in 2008 it would have given the nomination a-way more serious fight for Romney, the Huckster, among others. In 2008 McCain wasn't able to pivot to the general election, while we've seen the opposite from Biden so far, in that Biden is raising lots of money, he is running good ads.

[Ferguson97]

I think it's closer to Obama '12 than Obama '08

[EJ24]

I've been reading through this thread, and I want to make something clear about 2008.

Republicans were TOAST that year. They were pretty toast since 2006 (look at the midterms), but everybody was sick of Bush by 08. Bill Richardson would've been President had he won the Dem nomination. Not saying Obama was not a masterful politician (he was), but there's no circumstance that could've saved McCain that year. None.

There's a reason Obama used "Change" as his campaign motto, because people were sick of the direction of the country under Republican leadership, and wanted something entirely different.

[roxas11]

I've been reading through this thread, and I want to make something clear about 2008.

Republicans were TOAST that year. They were pretty toast since 2006 (look at the midterms), but everybody was sick of Bush by 08. Bill Richardson would've been President had he won the Dem nomination. Not saying Obama was not a masterful politician (he was), but there's no circumstance that could've saved McCain that year. None.

There's a reason Obama used "Change" as his campaign motto, because people were sick of the direction of the country under Republican leadership, and wanted something entirely different.

The Dems could have nominated Bill Cosby
Hired Harvey Weinstein to be his campaign manger and made R Kelly his VP
and they still would have won in 2008 lol

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Too early to say. There really hasn't been a campaign yet. I think when things really heat up in Aug and Sept he is going to collapse. Not collapse, as in Trump wins in a landslide ,collapse as in his slight lead will turn into a comfortable small lead for Trump (5-7 pt swing).  There are already warning signs since he has been fumbing on online zoom podcasts even with all this time to prepare at home. I think once the campaigning starts again he is not goign to be able to handle the criticism.  Hillary is a lot tougher than Biden and I do think Biden is the weakest democratic nominee since Dukakis in '88 (yes weaker than Kerry). I don't think he is going to be able to handle the attacks the RNC and Trump are going to throw at him. It's going to get nasty very soon.

I agree with a previous poster that Trump's campaign has not been as strong as 2016 so far. That is obvious, but it doesn't need to be. That was a masterful campaign. Obama's 2012 campaign while good was nowhere near as good as 2008 and he still won. Trump just has to get over the finish line which I believe he will do.

Huh? Obama's 2012 Campaign was much better then his 2008, they successfully painted Romney as an out of touch plutocrat early and it stuck. What does the RNC/Trump attack Biden on? China, they've already spent millions on ads to attach him to Biden and they haven't been effective, while Biden/Biden allied PACs have been hammering Trump on everything from Healthcare to China very effectively.

Dude. People aren't focused on politics yet. Wait till Aug and Sept and wait till the economy starts coming back this summer. By the RNC Trump will have a slight lead. Trust me.

Trumps own Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell just said yesterday that he thinks the US economy will not recover until late 2021.....

Full recovery. It can't get worse than now. Business is gradually re-opening.

you are right It cant get worse but CBO is projecting it be a while before things truly get better

this is what CBO is currently projecting for 2020 and 2021



so even if Business gradually re-opening as you say Unemployment will still be over 11 percent by the end of the year

Biden is running a good ad campaign and has the full might of the DNC and Democratic donors behind him, so I don't think we'll see your Trump surge in 2020.

There's going to be a Trump surge. The question is when.

There’s gonna be another SN ban. the question is when.

[Orwell]

I've been reading through this thread, and I want to make something clear about 2008.

Republicans were TOAST that year. They were pretty toast since 2006 (look at the midterms), but everybody was sick of Bush by 08. Bill Richardson would've been President had he won the Dem nomination. Not saying Obama was not a masterful politician (he was), but there's no circumstance that could've saved McCain that year. None.

There's a reason Obama used "Change" as his campaign motto, because people were sick of the direction of the country under Republican leadership, and wanted something entirely different.

The Dems could have nominated Bill Cosby
Hired Harvey Weinstein to be his campaign manger and made R Kelly his VP
and they still would have won in 2008 lol

I would like to say Cosby/R Kelly in 2008 would not be a super bad ticket, sure R Kelly had those legal issues, but he was acquitted in 2008 of the charges and he didn't even have the Sex Cult yet, and Weinstein running the campaign, heck he'll bring in tons of cash from Hollywood.

[Former President tack50]

No. Obama's 2012 campaign structurally was the strongest campaign since Bill Clinton at minimum, with a combination of powerful, consistent messaging and mass mobilization. Even his 2008 campaign doesn't compare to the sheer power his re-election campaign brought to the table given real-world circumstances and the overcoming of very strong trends that historically would have led to his defeat; his '08 campaign did in fact have greater mobilization of voters and a better electoral performance, but was fueled mostly by the collapse of the GOP and an abstract "change" narrative.

Biden is - as he has been throughout all of this - riding on his name alone and the fact that he's currently immune from being immersed in many of the unscripted, uncontrollable events that highlight his gaffe-prone nature, his alleged mental health and other negative characteristics. His campaign is still hollow, bare-bones and minimalist in terms of any of the traditional metrics by which campaigns are judged at this point in the cycle. And before anybody wants to yell "corona!", remember that all of these factors were present in his campaign well before this pandemic.

While I agree, how did Biden win the Democratic Primary? Like you would assume at least one of the 20+ candidates would manage to show biden as an empty suit running on name recognition?

[Adam Griffin]

No. Obama's 2012 campaign structurally was the strongest campaign since Bill Clinton at minimum, with a combination of powerful, consistent messaging and mass mobilization. Even his 2008 campaign doesn't compare to the sheer power his re-election campaign brought to the table given real-world circumstances and the overcoming of very strong trends that historically would have led to his defeat; his '08 campaign did in fact have greater mobilization of voters and a better electoral performance, but was fueled mostly by the collapse of the GOP and an abstract "change" narrative.

Biden is - as he has been throughout all of this - riding on his name alone and the fact that he's currently immune from being immersed in many of the unscripted, uncontrollable events that highlight his gaffe-prone nature, his alleged mental health and other negative characteristics. His campaign is still hollow, bare-bones and minimalist in terms of any of the traditional metrics by which campaigns are judged at this point in the cycle. And before anybody wants to yell "corona!", remember that all of these factors were present in his campaign well before this pandemic.

While I agree, how did Biden win the Democratic Primary? Like you would assume at least one of the 20+ candidates would manage to show biden as an empty suit running on name recognition?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=374174.msg7355953#msg7355953

Your assumption is based on the premise that enough people would care that he was running on name recognition alone. For quite some time, enjoying name recognition in the Democratic Party means being blessed with the establishment's support - which likewise means no rocking the boat in terms of economic reforms. Combine various non-white groups who defer to the best-known contender with white suburbanite defectors who spent the entirety of the Obama years voting for Republicans due to their own form of "economic anxiety" and you now have a majority in the Democratic Party who is in one way or another hostile to any change not expressed in meaningless platitudes. Hillary Clinton would have beaten Barack Obama by at least 20 points in 2008 had the 2020 Democratic electorate been its composition then - despite the party becoming "less racist" over the same time period.

[Ferguson97]

I think it's probably closer to Obama 2012.

[Bidenworth2020]

No. Obama's 2012 campaign structurally was the strongest campaign since Bill Clinton at minimum, with a combination of powerful, consistent messaging and mass mobilization. Even his 2008 campaign doesn't compare to the sheer power his re-election campaign brought to the table given real-world circumstances and the overcoming of very strong trends that historically would have led to his defeat; his '08 campaign did in fact have greater mobilization of voters and a better electoral performance, but was fueled mostly by the collapse of the GOP and an abstract "change" narrative.

Biden is - as he has been throughout all of this - riding on his name alone and the fact that he's currently immune from being immersed in many of the unscripted, uncontrollable events that highlight his gaffe-prone nature, his alleged mental health and other negative characteristics. His campaign is still hollow, bare-bones and minimalist in terms of any of the traditional metrics by which campaigns are judged at this point in the cycle. And before anybody wants to yell "corona!", remember that all of these factors were present in his campaign well before this pandemic.

While I agree, how did Biden win the Democratic Primary? Like you would assume at least one of the 20+ candidates would manage to show biden as an empty suit running on name recognition?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=374174.msg7355953#msg7355953

Your assumption is based on the premise that enough people would care that he was running on name recognition alone. For quite some time, enjoying name recognition in the Democratic Party means being blessed with the establishment's support - which likewise means no rocking the boat in terms of economic reforms. Combine various non-white groups who defer to the best-known contender with white suburbanite defectors who spent the entirety of the Obama years voting for Republicans due to their own form of "economic anxiety" and you now have a majority in the Democratic Party who is in one way or another hostile to any change not expressed in meaningless platitudes. Hillary Clinton would have beaten Barack Obama by at least 20 points in 2008 had the 2020 Democratic electorate been its composition then - despite the party becoming "less racist" over the same time period.

Umm... Most of Hillary's base has left the party since 2008, either died off or became a republican. Additionally, I see little reason why Obama wouldn't be able to win over suburbanites (they probably would have voted for almost anyone against Biden besides the self-identified socialist, lol). I think you are (perhaps due to your previous support for Sanders) underestimating how weak he was/would be in a 1v1 with Biden and most others, and also underestimating the extent to which a once in a generation candidate like Obama could appeal to any number of demographics. That said, I think your point has some truth to it re democrats being risk-averse. Whether is this specifically related to their visceral desire to get Trump out or some underlying shift (or both) remains to be seen.

[Adam Griffin]

No. Obama's 2012 campaign structurally was the strongest campaign since Bill Clinton at minimum, with a combination of powerful, consistent messaging and mass mobilization. Even his 2008 campaign doesn't compare to the sheer power his re-election campaign brought to the table given real-world circumstances and the overcoming of very strong trends that historically would have led to his defeat; his '08 campaign did in fact have greater mobilization of voters and a better electoral performance, but was fueled mostly by the collapse of the GOP and an abstract "change" narrative.

Biden is - as he has been throughout all of this - riding on his name alone and the fact that he's currently immune from being immersed in many of the unscripted, uncontrollable events that highlight his gaffe-prone nature, his alleged mental health and other negative characteristics. His campaign is still hollow, bare-bones and minimalist in terms of any of the traditional metrics by which campaigns are judged at this point in the cycle. And before anybody wants to yell "corona!", remember that all of these factors were present in his campaign well before this pandemic.

While I agree, how did Biden win the Democratic Primary? Like you would assume at least one of the 20+ candidates would manage to show biden as an empty suit running on name recognition?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=374174.msg7355953#msg7355953

Your assumption is based on the premise that enough people would care that he was running on name recognition alone. For quite some time, enjoying name recognition in the Democratic Party means being blessed with the establishment's support - which likewise means no rocking the boat in terms of economic reforms. Combine various non-white groups who defer to the best-known contender with white suburbanite defectors who spent the entirety of the Obama years voting for Republicans due to their own form of "economic anxiety" and you now have a majority in the Democratic Party who is in one way or another hostile to any change not expressed in meaningless platitudes. Hillary Clinton would have beaten Barack Obama by at least 20 points in 2008 had the 2020 Democratic electorate been its composition then - despite the party becoming "less racist" over the same time period.

Umm... Most of Hillary's base has left the party since 2008, either died off or became a republican. Additionally, I see little reason why Obama wouldn't be able to win over suburbanites (they probably would have voted for almost anyone against Biden besides the self-identified socialist, lol). I think you are (perhaps due to your previous support for Sanders) underestimating how weak he was/would be in a 1v1 with Biden and most others, and also underestimating the extent to which a once in a generation candidate like Obama could appeal to any number of demographics. That said, I think your point has some truth to it re democrats being risk-averse. Whether is this specifically related to their visceral desire to get Trump out or some underlying shift (or both) remains to be seen.

Well, thanks for grabbing onto the least meaningful point of what I wrote. Nevertheless, I stand by it: today's Democratic Party gravity is lodged somewhere in between "ineffectual incrementalism (because that's all that's possible!)" and "status quo preservation at all costs (don't tax me!)". Messages such as "hope" and "change" are not at all welcome - and if you think "Trump" is the reason behind this, then just wait another 12-16 years (which is presumably how long it'll be until we have another open Democratic primary, contingent upon Biden's VP pick - win or lose).

[Bidenworth2020]

No. Obama's 2012 campaign structurally was the strongest campaign since Bill Clinton at minimum, with a combination of powerful, consistent messaging and mass mobilization. Even his 2008 campaign doesn't compare to the sheer power his re-election campaign brought to the table given real-world circumstances and the overcoming of very strong trends that historically would have led to his defeat; his '08 campaign did in fact have greater mobilization of voters and a better electoral performance, but was fueled mostly by the collapse of the GOP and an abstract "change" narrative.

Biden is - as he has been throughout all of this - riding on his name alone and the fact that he's currently immune from being immersed in many of the unscripted, uncontrollable events that highlight his gaffe-prone nature, his alleged mental health and other negative characteristics. His campaign is still hollow, bare-bones and minimalist in terms of any of the traditional metrics by which campaigns are judged at this point in the cycle. And before anybody wants to yell "corona!", remember that all of these factors were present in his campaign well before this pandemic.

While I agree, how did Biden win the Democratic Primary? Like you would assume at least one of the 20+ candidates would manage to show biden as an empty suit running on name recognition?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=374174.msg7355953#msg7355953

Your assumption is based on the premise that enough people would care that he was running on name recognition alone. For quite some time, enjoying name recognition in the Democratic Party means being blessed with the establishment's support - which likewise means no rocking the boat in terms of economic reforms. Combine various non-white groups who defer to the best-known contender with white suburbanite defectors who spent the entirety of the Obama years voting for Republicans due to their own form of "economic anxiety" and you now have a majority in the Democratic Party who is in one way or another hostile to any change not expressed in meaningless platitudes. Hillary Clinton would have beaten Barack Obama by at least 20 points in 2008 had the 2020 Democratic electorate been its composition then - despite the party becoming "less racist" over the same time period.

Umm... Most of Hillary's base has left the party since 2008, either died off or became a republican. Additionally, I see little reason why Obama wouldn't be able to win over suburbanites (they probably would have voted for almost anyone against Biden besides the self-identified socialist, lol). I think you are (perhaps due to your previous support for Sanders) underestimating how weak he was/would be in a 1v1 with Biden and most others, and also underestimating the extent to which a once in a generation candidate like Obama could appeal to any number of demographics. That said, I think your point has some truth to it re democrats being risk-averse. Whether is this specifically related to their visceral desire to get Trump out or some underlying shift (or both) remains to be seen.

Well, thanks for grabbing onto the least meaningful point of what I wrote. Nevertheless, I stand by it: today's Democratic Party gravity is lodged somewhere in between "ineffectual incrementalism (because that's all that's possible!)" and "status quo preservation at all costs (don't tax me!)". Messages such as "hope" and "change" are not at all welcome - and if you think "Trump" is the reason behind this, then just wait another 12-16 years (which is presumably how long it'll be until we have another open Democratic primary, contingent upon Biden's VP pick - win or lose).

Biden's win is not this indictment on the state of democrat politics that you seem to be suggesting it is, though. There was no Obama in that field-- and likewise, if that was the field Hillary ran against in 2008 (or at least comparable), she too would have won. Bernie was considered intolerable to large swaths of the base and (apparently) didn't actually excite any new voters, Warren had sh**t political instincts, Bloomberg was Bloomberg, etc etc. That left us with Biden, and TBH I don't regret that choice for a second (especially considering how Biden has moved post-primary w/policy).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Biden's campaign is garbage. He will win because he's not the one bungling coronavirus.

[dw93]

No. Obama's 2012 campaign structurally was the strongest campaign since Bill Clinton at minimum, with a combination of powerful, consistent messaging and mass mobilization. Even his 2008 campaign doesn't compare to the sheer power his re-election campaign brought to the table given real-world circumstances and the overcoming of very strong trends that historically would have led to his defeat; his '08 campaign did in fact have greater mobilization of voters and a better electoral performance, but was fueled mostly by the collapse of the GOP and an abstract "change" narrative.

Biden is - as he has been throughout all of this - riding on his name alone and the fact that he's currently immune from being immersed in many of the unscripted, uncontrollable events that highlight his gaffe-prone nature, his alleged mental health and other negative characteristics. His campaign is still hollow, bare-bones and minimalist in terms of any of the traditional metrics by which campaigns are judged at this point in the cycle. And before anybody wants to yell "corona!", remember that all of these factors were present in his campaign well before this pandemic.

I don't know how you can really say that he is only "immune" to this because of limited exposure due to the pandemic when he won the primary easily (at least post-SC) with these "negative characteristics" still very much on display.

The Democratic primary electorate and the American GE electorate aren't anywhere close to being identical; a majority of the party is now fundamentally conditioned to support whomever's "turn" it's considered to be and/or defer to whomever's name they recognize most (in contrast to the country, which loves "change"). Biden won in spite of his problems (like Clinton), but what allowed him to win the nomination is not indicative of having a strong GE campaign.

He basically won the primary the same way McCain did in 2008, he collapsed in polls (for McCain it was in the summer/fall of 2007) and then he put all his chips in one basket. If McCain lost in New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Florida in 2008 it would have given the nomination a-way more serious fight for Romney, the Huckster, among others. In 2008 McCain wasn't able to pivot to the general election, while we've seen the opposite from Biden so far, in that Biden is raising lots of money, he is running good ads.

I think Biden's primary victory was similar to Bill Clinton's in 1992 to be honest.

[Bomster]

On his own, Biden is not the strongest candidate. At best he is somewhere between Gore and Kerry, far above Hillary mind you, but nowhere near Obama. Obama was a perfect candidate. The perfect mix of youth and charisma and appeal. It's why the media has searched for candidates like him since, and they thought they found it in Rubio, in Beto, in Kamala, in Pete. But they didn't have what Obama did. Biden is nothing like Obama. He isn't young and new to the political scene. He isn't an excellent and inspiring orator (atleast like Obama was, he's actually pretty good sometimes). He doesn't have a diverse background or break any barriers. He is a career politician. He is a (barely) competent standard-bearer, not much more. Against a competent incumbent, I doubt he would last long.

However Trump is not a competent incumbent.

He may have atleast 40% of America marching lockstep behind him, but he also has atleast 50% of America marching lockstep against him. His approval right now on 538 is a dismal -10.7 points, while on RCP it is -8.1. Not since his first weeks in office has Donald Trump enjoyed more popularity than unpopularity. Never before has a President been so consistently unpopular. He faces the steepest path to re-election since Poppy Bush or Jimmy C, and unlike Dubya who rallied the nation around him in the wake of a crisis Trump has completely fumbled the ball and has failed to rally America around him. He barely even made an effort! He started acting presidential for like a week before reverting back to mudslinging and partisan attacks on the other side and that's not the behavior of a leader. "I take no responsibility". Whatever happened to "the buck stops here"? Utterly disgraceful. He spits on the sacred office of the presidency. He is a failed leader. And a lot of people know it. That's why Joe Biden, despite all of his flaws, is mopping the floor with him in statewide polling.

That's what makes Biden a good candidate against Donald Trump, he is the foil to Donald Trump. They share some similar qualities. Old age, questionable statements, baggage. However where Trump lacks in poise, Biden has it in spades. Where Trump lacks in decency, Biden has it in spades. Where Trump lacks in civility, Biden has it in spades. And most of all, where Trump lacks in basic human empathy, Biden has it in spades. Biden, for all of his faults, has the experience and fortitude to be President of the United States. In my eyes, and many other Americans' eyes, Donald Trump has blew it, and we'll never consider granting this pathetic excuse for a President a second term.