Should Thaksin Shinawatra resign?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

link

Protests have been continuing regularly for quite some time. Thaksin has agreed to early elections (April 2) but has said he will not resign.

But I say yes. Time for the bastard to go. He's like the worst parts of Berlusconi and Bush put together.

oh, and here's another interesting development.

[opebo]

Thanks for the updated link, BRTD, I haven't been keeping up with the situation since I returned to the Bad Place.

I would love to see that corrupt ass ousted, but I'm always nervous about how upheaval will effect the industry.  On the one hand this sort of thing distracts the authorities from crackdowns, but on the other hand if he thought the industry was supporting the opposition he might be even more motivated to attack it.  We'll see.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What do you think will happen in the April 2 elections? Could they bring him down or just be more of the same due to massive fraud? I read that international observers think as that possibly as much as 10% of Thaksin's votes were fraudulent.

The opposition parties are considering boycotting the election too. Might be a good strategy if it makes Thaksin appear less legimiate, that increases the chances of a coup or the King sacking him in some way.

[Colin]

I have to agree with you BRTD he has to resign for the sake of democracy in Thailand. If he doesn't resign and the party's still boycott the election then the protesters have said they might resort to more violent actions and if large widespread violence occurs that might bring the King to call upon the army to restore order and set up a new government which would not be a pretty sight. All in all either the opposition needs to back down and not boycott the new election, which is incredibly unlikely, or Sinawatra needs to figure out that he is in a bad situation that he cannot escape except through resignation.

[opebo]

What do you think will happen in the April 2 elections? Could they bring him down or just be more of the same due to massive fraud? I read that international observers think as that possibly as much as 10% of Thaksin's votes were fraudulent.

I'm sure 10% is a reasonable estimate of the fraud.  I also agree that it will be difficult to oust  him on April 2 due to fraud and the political machines in the Northeast and North, which Thai Rak Thai basically owns.  Which is why the opposition is boycotting the election. 

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Yes, this is the key - the King.  Basically everything is (or has been) up to him in the end, partly because he only ever intervenes when everyone knows there is no alternative (ie. there is about to be civil war).  If the protesters get Thaksin to start killing them, it is pretty likely the King will have the Army impose order, and Thaksin will be called on the carpet and exiled - this happened, as you know in 1992 and 1972. 

The kings prestige has never been higher, and I doubt there are any elements in the army that would consider siding with Thaksin if the King (through the generals) orders Thaksin's ouster.  The liberals know the king is basically on their side - historically he has always sided with the middle class moderate liberal segment of society.  I hope he lives a few more years!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

what's the crown prince like then?

[opebo]

what's the crown prince like then?

Oh he is greatly disliked by the people.. he is viewed as an irresponsible playboy and a shamefully stupid embarrassment.  Also he is reputedly anti-foreigner.  I only hope that he becomes more liberal and responsible when he becomes King, but of course the real worry is the loss of the stabilizing influence.


The eldest daughter, Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn is much loved by the people (who are completely unconcerned by the rumour that she is a lesbian) for her brilliance, public service, and good grace, but alas a woman has never been monarch.  Her nickname is Phra Thep, and she is considered her father's intellectual successor.

[WMS]

What precisely are the grounds for Shinawatra to resign? That wasn't clear from the links...

And...as much as I hate to say it...opebo's analysis of the Crown Prince and Princess exactly matches what I learned in a Southeast Asian Politics class back in graduate school - the Prince is unqualified and unpopular and the Princess is, well, qualified and popular.

[opebo]

What precisely are the grounds for Shinawatra to resign? That wasn't clear from the links...

Basically the only 'real' charges are that he is monumentally corrupt, both in terms of stealing money and in rigging elections.  What the protests amount to is the educated middle class saying they won't put up with it anymore.

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Yes, she's a rather appealing character.  I believe she is unmarried, which is incredibly cool.

[Yates]

Yes.  Opebo, I was unaware of the fact that you resided in Thailand.  In which part of the country do you live?

[opebo]

Yes.  Opebo, I was unaware of the fact that you resided in Thailand.  In which part of the country do you live?

I have lived in Thailand for about half of each of last 4 years.  Or is it five.. I forget.  Anyway, I usually go in about October and come back around April, but I have been there in every month from August to June. 

Anyway, I have lived in Hua Hin and in Pattaya, but I have of course spent a lot of time in Bankok and visited Chiang Mai and Isaan several times, as well as Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

Pattaya, btw, Yates, is the center of the universe.  Every moment I am away from Pattaya I think of nothing else but the dream of my return.

[WMS]

What precisely are the grounds for Shinawatra to resign? That wasn't clear from the links...

Basically the only 'real' charges are that he is monumentally corrupt, both in terms of stealing money and in rigging elections.  What the protests amount to is the educated middle class saying they won't put up with it anymore.

Ah, OK, got it.

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Yes, she's a rather appealing character.  I believe she is unmarried, which is incredibly cool.
[/quote]

It's her competence that might finally get that succession tradition broken...