Predictions: Winner and margin of victory in each lean/swing state
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Author Topic: Predictions: Winner and margin of victory in each lean/swing state  (Read 1396 times)
DabbingSanta
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« on: May 16, 2020, 04:53:22 PM »
Didn't see a thread so figured I should start one. Will be interesting to look back in six months to see who was right, who was wrong, and what we all missed.

Colorado: +10 Biden
Minnesota: +8 Biden
Virginia: +8 Biden
Michigan: +6 Biden
Nevada: +6 Biden
New Hampshire: +6 Biden
Pennsylvania: +4 Biden
Arizona: +2 Biden
Wisconsin: +1 Biden
Florida: +0.5 Biden
Nebraska-02: +0.5 Trump
North Carolina: +0.5 Trump
Maine-02: +4 Trump
Georgia: +6 Trump
Ohio: +6 Trump
Texas: +7 Trump
Iowa: +9 Trump
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2020, 05:04:29 PM »
New Mexico: Biden + 11
Colorado: Biden + 7
Virginia: Biden + 7
Michigan: Biden + 5
Minnesota Biden + 5
Pennsylvania: Biden + 4
Arizona: Biden + 2
Nebraska Version 2: Biden + 3
Wisconsin: Biden + 2
Florida: Biden +1
NC: Biden -1
Ohia: Biden -4
Texas: Biden -5
Georgia: Biden -2
Rural Maine: Biden -8
Maine United: Biden + 3
New Hamster: Biden + 1
Iawa: Biden -8
Montana: Biden -11
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2020, 05:07:09 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2020, 05:11:39 PM by Cory Booker »
Arizona Trump 51/49
Cali Biden 60/40
Colo Biden 51/47
FL Trump 51/49
ME Biden 51/49
MI Biden 51/49
MN  Biden 51/49
NV Biden 51/49
NH Biden 51/49
NM Biden 53/47
NC Trump 51/47
PA Biden 51/47
VA Biden 51/47
WI Biden 51/48

278 to 260

HOUSE narrow D majority
SENATE 51/50 AL,AZ, CO, ME, NC flip

Power sharing agreement goes into effect back to 2000, need unanimous consent 100-0 to get any Bill's or nominations to floor

No IN or WVA arent flipping per MSN polls and Biden plus 6 in FL was a University poll, but Amash helps Biden in MI and WI

Perception 413 landslide v reality 278 EC map
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2020, 05:09:34 PM »
New Mexico Biden +12
Colorado: +10 Biden
Virginia: +10 Biden
Minnesota: +5 Biden
Nevada: +5 Biden
Michigan: +4.5 Biden
New Hampshire: +3 Biden
Pennsylvania: +2 Biden
Wisconsin: +2 Biden
Arizona: +1 Biden
Florida: +0.1 Trump
Nebraska-02: +1 Trump
North Carolina: +1 Trump
Maine-02: +2 Trump
Georgia: +2 Trump
Ohio: +3 Trump
Texas: +4.5 Trump
Iowa: +5 Trump
Montana Trump+10
Kansas Trump +11
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2020, 07:55:39 PM »
Arizona: Biden +0.5

Wisconsin: Trump +0.05

Michigan: Biden+3

Pennsylvania: Biden+6

Florida: Biden+1

North Carolina: Trump+1

Maine CD-2: Trump+3

Nebraska CD-2: Biden+0.1

Minnesota: Biden +13

Colorado: Biden+9

Virginia: Biden+9

Nevada: Biden+4

New Hampshire: Biden+4

Georgia: Trump+4

Ohio: Trump+1.5

Texas: Trump+3.5

Iowa: Trump+6.5
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2020, 08:18:20 PM »
Maine (All):Biden+4.7
New Hampshire: Biden+1.8
Pennsylvania: Biden+1.6
Virginia:Biden+7.8
North Carolina: Trump+0.4
Georgia: Biden+0.2
Florida: Biden+1.0
Ohio: Trump+5.6
Michigan: Biden+1.6
Wisconsin: Biden+0.8
Minnesota: Biden+5.9
Iowa: Trump+10.5
Texas: Trump+4.9
New Mexico: Biden+10.6
Colorado: Biden+9.1
Nevada:Biden+2.4
Arizona:Biden+0.5
ME-2: Trump+8.7
NE-2: Biden+0.6
Montana: Trump+12.9
Indiana: Trump+16.9
West Virginia: Trump+39.1
California: Biden+25.7
Kansas: Trump+17.8
Alaska: Trump+8.7
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EJ24
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2020, 08:22:16 PM »
Colorado: +11 Biden
Minnesota: +11 Biden
Virginia: +13 Biden
Michigan: +9 Biden
Nevada: +9 Biden
New Hampshire: +5 Biden
Pennsylvania: +3.5 Biden
Arizona: +1 Trump
Wisconsin: +1 Trump
Florida: +0.2 Biden
Nebraska-02: +1 Trump
North Carolina: +2 Trump
Maine-02: +3 Trump
Georgia: +2.5 Trump
Ohio: +8.5 Trump
Texas: +3 Trump
Iowa: +9 Trump
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2020, 08:40:29 PM »
Quote from: Forumlurker on May 16, 2020, 08:18:20 PM
Maine (All):Biden+4.7
New Hampshire: Biden+1.8
Pennsylvania: Biden+1.6
Virginia:Biden+7.8
North Carolina: Trump+0.4
Georgia: Biden+0.2
Florida: Biden+1.0
Ohio: Trump+5.6
Michigan: Biden+1.6
Wisconsin: Biden+0.8
Minnesota: Biden+5.9
Iowa: Trump+10.5
Texas: Trump+4.9
New Mexico: Biden+10.6
Colorado: Biden+9.1
Nevada:Biden+2.4
Arizona:Biden+0.5
ME-2: Trump+8.7
NE-2: Biden+0.6
Montana: Trump+12.9
Indiana: Trump+16.9
West Virginia: Trump+39.1
California: Biden+25.7
Kansas: Trump+17.8
Alaska: Trump+8.7



This is closest to my view so far.  I would give Trump Wisconsin and Georgia narrowly though.
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here2view
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2020, 08:43:55 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2020, 08:49:41 PM by here2view »
Virginia: +9 Biden
Colorado: +8 Biden
Nevada: +6 Biden
Minnesota: +5 Biden
New Hampshire: +4 Biden
Michigan: +3 Biden
Pennsylvania: +2 Biden
Wisconsin: +1 Biden
Arizona: +1 Biden
Nebraska-02: +0.5 Trump
Florida: +1 Trump
North Carolina: +2 Trump
Georgia: +2 Trump
Maine-02: +5 Trump
Texas: +5 Trump
Ohio: +6 Trump
Iowa: +7 Trump

Senate: 52-48 Republican (Democrats gain AZ and CO, GOP gains AL)

House: 230-205 Democrats
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2020, 08:44:35 PM »
Colorado - Biden by 10
Minnesota - Biden by 10
Virginia - Biden by 8
Maine at-Large - Biden by 7.5
Michigan - Biden by 7
Nevada - Biden by 6
Pennsylvania - Biden by 5
New Hampshire - Biden by 4
Wisconsin - Biden by 3
Arizona - Biden by 2
Nebraska CD-2 - Biden by 1.5
Florida - Biden by 1
Maine CD-2 - Biden by 1
North Carolina - Biden by 0.5
Iowa - Trump by 2
Georgia - Trump by 2
Texas - Trump by 2
Ohio - Trump by 2.5
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Mail-order President
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« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2020, 09:02:07 PM »
NM - Biden +9
VA - Biden +8
CO - Biden +7
NV - Biden +4
ME - Biden +3
NPV - Biden +3
NH - Biden +0
MN - Trump +0
PA - Trump +0.5
AZ - Trump +1
MI - Trump +1 (Tipping Point)
FL - Trump +1.5
NE02 - Trump +2
GA - Trump +2
WI - Trump +2
NC - Trump +3.5
TX - Trump +5.5
OH - Trump +9
IA - Trump +10
ME02 - Trump +10
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2020, 09:55:42 PM »
Virginia: +13 Biden
Maine-01: +12 Biden
Colorado: +11 Biden
New Mexico: +10 Biden
Minnesota: +7 Biden
Nevada: +5 Biden
Arizona: +4 Biden
New Hampshire: +4 Biden
Pennsylvania: +4 Biden
Michigan: +3 Biden
Nebraska-02: +2 Biden
Maine-AL: +1 Biden
North Carolina: +1 Biden
Wisconsin: +1 Biden
Florida: +1 Trump
Georgia: +1 Trump
Texas: +2 Trump
Ohio: +7 Trump
Iowa: +8 Trump
Maine-02: +10 Trump
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Bomster
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« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2020, 12:03:51 AM »
Warning, I used my own election calculator for this, so it may be a little wonky.

Arizona: +0.2 Trump
Colorado: +7.5 Biden
Florida: +1.6 Trump
Georgia: +6.7 Trump
Iowa: +4.4 Trump
ME-02: +5.6 Trump
Michigan: +3.4 Biden
Minnesota: +7.4 Biden
NE-02: +3.1 Trump
Nevada: +3.4 Biden
New Hampster: +4.3 Biden
North Carolina: +3.2 Trump
Ohio: +4.0 Trump
Pennsylvania: +4.4 Biden
Texas: +6.0 Trump
Virginia: +7.8 Biden
Wisconsin: +2.2 Biden
National Popular Vote: +4.0 Biden
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Libertas Vel Mors
Haley/Ryan
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« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2020, 01:14:46 AM »
Colorado: +9 Biden
Virginia: +8 Biden
Nebraska-02: +3 Biden
Nevada: +2 Biden
New Hampshire: +2 Biden
Minnesota: +1 Biden
Michigan: +1 Biden
Pennsylvania: +0 Trump
Arizona: +1 Trump
Florida: +2 Trump
Wisconsin: +2 Trump
Georgia: +2 Trump
North Carolina: +3 Trump
Texas: +4 Trump
Ohio: +10 Trump
Iowa: +11 Trump
Maine-02: +15 Trump
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2020, 05:37:09 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2020, 05:40:33 PM by MT Treasurer »
As of today (predicting a Biden win). Some of this will probably change:

Virginia: Biden +13 (stop pretending that this state is even remotely winnable for any Republican)
Colorado: Biden +12 (not a lean/swing state)
New Mexico: Biden +9
Nevada: Biden +5
Minnesota: Biden +5
NE-02: Biden +4 (FLIP)
New Hamster: Biden +4
Maine-AL: Biden +4
Pennsylvania: Biden +3 (FLIP)
Michigan:  Biden +3 (FLIP)
Arizona: Biden +3 (FLIP)
Florida: Biden +1 (FLIP)
Wisconsin: Biden +1 (FLIP)
Georgia: Trump +<0.5
North Carolina: Trump +<1
Texas: Trump +2.5
Ohio: Trump +4.5
Iowa: Trump +7
ME-02: Trump +10

Popular Vote: Biden +6
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2020, 05:53:00 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2020, 05:56:58 PM by Laki »
Not sure but too early. I think polls are way off currently, and Biden's approvals will sink, while COVID-19 will dominate less the news in november.

New Mexico: Biden +12
Colorado: Biden +13
Virginia: Biden +8
Michigan: Trump +0
Minnesota Trump +0
Pennsylvania: Biden +2
Arizona: Biden +3
NE-2: Biden +2
Wisconsin: Trump +7
Florida: Trump +1
NC: Trump +2
Ohio: Trump +11
Texas: Trump +5
Georgia: Trump +1
Rural Maine: Trump +15
Maine United: Trump +2
New Hampshire: Biden +2
Iowa: Trump +17
Montana: Trump +15

Popular Vote: Biden +4

I just can't see Biden getting the turn-out which is needed, but i'm assuming the elderly will vote Trump despite what polls indicate now. And that youth turn-out is down.

Least sure about Wisconsin, Maine, Minnesota, Iowa and Montana. I could be very far off. Especially Maine, i have no idea what's going on in Maine. It could flip entirely to Biden, or it could just reject the Democratic Party in huge numbers.
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SN2903
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« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2020, 06:28:36 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2020, 06:38:07 PM by SN2903 »
New Mexico - Biden +8
Virginia - Biden +6.5
Colorado - Biden +4.5
Nevada - Biden +1.5
NPV: Biden +1
New Hampshire - Trump+.25
Minnesota - Trump +.5
Pennsylvania - Trump +1.5
Arizona - Trump +1.75
NE-2 - Trump +2
Maine - Trump +2
Florida - Trump +2.25
Michigan - Trump +2.75
North Carolina - Trump +4
Wisconsin - Trump +4.25
Georgia - Trump +4.75
Texas - Trump +6.5
Ohio - Trump +8.5
Iowa - Trump +12.5
Maine-2 - Trump +17
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« Reply #17 on: May 18, 2020, 05:43:59 AM »
Maine-AL Biden +5
New Hampshire Biden +6
Pennsylvania Biden +2
Virginia Biden +10
North Carolina Trump +3
Georgia Trump +2
Florida Trump +4
Texas Trump +5
Ohio Trump +6
Michigan Biden +2
Wisconsin Trump +2
Minnesota Biden +3
Iowa Trump +9
Nebraska-02 Biden +6
Colorado Biden +9
New Mexico Biden +8
Arizona Trump +2
Nevada Biden +4
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #18 on: May 18, 2020, 06:10:23 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2020, 10:44:17 AM by Fire and Fury »
Maine-01: Biden +14
Oregon: Biden +13
New Mexico: Biden +8
Colorado: Biden +7
Virginia: Biden +6
Maine AL: Biden +4
Minnesota: Biden +3.5
Michigan: Biden +3
Nevada: Biden +2.5
New Hampshire: Biden +1.5
Pennsylvania: Biden +1
Wisconsin: Trump +0.5
Arizona: Trump +1
Florida: Trump +1
Nebraska-02: Trump +1.5
North Carolina: Trump +2.5
Georgia: Trump +3
Texas: Trump +3.5
Ohio: Trump +6
Iowa: Trump +8
Maine-02: Trump +15
Missouri: Trump +17
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538Electoral
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« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2020, 10:37:16 PM »
New Mexico: Biden+4
Colorado: Biden+3
Maine: Biden+1
Nevada: Biden+0.3
Virginia: Trump+0.6
Minnesota: Trump+1
New Hampshire: Trump+1.5
Michigan: Trump+3
Pennsylvania: Trump+3.5
Wisconsin: Trump+3.5
Florida: Trump+4
North Carolina: Trump+5
Arizona: Trump+6
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #20 on: May 18, 2020, 10:48:12 PM »
Colorado: Biden by 10%
Minnesota:Biden by 8%
Virginia: Biden by 9% (replicates Northam's map)
Michigan: Biden by 7%
Nevada: Biden by 7%
New Hampshire: Biden by 5%
Pennsylvania: Biden by 6%
Arizona: Biden by 3%
Wisconsin:  Biden by 3%
Ohio: Biden by 1%
Florida: Biden by 2%
Nebraska-02: Biden by 0.5%
North Carolina: Biden by 1%
Maine-02: Biden by 0.1%
Georgia: Trump by 0.2%
Texas: Trump by 5%
Iowa: Trump by 3%
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #21 on: May 18, 2020, 11:00:52 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on May 17, 2020, 06:28:36 PM
New Mexico - Biden +8
Virginia - Biden +6.5
Colorado - Biden +4.5
Nevada - Biden +1.5
NPV: Biden +1
New Hampshire - Trump+.25
Minnesota - Trump +.5
Pennsylvania - Trump +1.5
Arizona - Trump +1.75
NE-2 - Trump +2
Maine - Trump +2
Florida - Trump +2.25
Michigan - Trump +2.75
North Carolina - Trump +4
Wisconsin - Trump +4.25
Georgia - Trump +4.75
Texas - Trump +6.5
Ohio - Trump +8.5
Iowa - Trump +12.5
Maine-2 - Trump +17





I truly cannot see Trump gaining states during a global pandemic with 20% unemployment
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Libertas Vel Mors
Haley/Ryan
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« Reply #22 on: May 18, 2020, 11:46:03 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on May 17, 2020, 05:37:09 PM
As of today (predicting a Biden win). Some of this will probably change:

Virginia: Biden +13 (stop pretending that this state is even remotely winnable for any Republican)
Colorado: Biden +12 (not a lean/swing state)
New Mexico: Biden +9
Nevada: Biden +5
Minnesota: Biden +5
NE-02: Biden +4 (FLIP)
New Hamster: Biden +4
Maine-AL: Biden +4
Pennsylvania: Biden +3 (FLIP)
Michigan:  Biden +3 (FLIP)
Arizona: Biden +3 (FLIP)
Florida: Biden +1 (FLIP)
Wisconsin: Biden +1 (FLIP)
Georgia: Trump +<0.5
North Carolina: Trump +<1
Texas: Trump +2.5
Ohio: Trump +4.5
Iowa: Trump +7
ME-02: Trump +10

Popular Vote: Biden +6

How is a state that even Northam pre blackface only won by 9 going to vote for Biden by 13? VA is Safe D because of inelasticity, but not big Dem margins
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: May 19, 2020, 12:38:35 AM »
What's the point, we have our user predictions on the main site
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #24 on: May 19, 2020, 06:28:14 AM »
« Edited: May 19, 2020, 06:43:02 AM by SunSt0rm »
Colorado: Biden +9
Virginia: Biden +8
Minnesota: Biden +5
Nevada: Biden +4
Maine: Biden +3.5
New Hampshire: Biden +3
Michigan: Biden +2.5
Pennsylvania: Biden +2
Nebraska 2nd: Biden +2
Arizona: Biden +1
Wisconsin Biden +0.5
Florida: Trump +0.5
NC: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +3
Texas: Trump +5
Ohio: Trump +7
Iowa: Trump +8
Maine 2nd: Trump +10
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