Brad Henry vs. Tom Coburn in a McCain midterm

[Left Wing]

I know Coburn got 70% of the vote but let's say this is in a scenario where McCain wins due to a delayed recession and then his approvals drop hard. If 2010 was a Democratic wave year could Henry beat Coburn?

[Elcaspar]

In a scenario like that i see the race becoming a complete toss-up with it coming down to turnout on both sides, although Coburn's incumbency might just see him scrape by.

[NewYorkExpress]

Even in a McCain midterm, I think Coburn wins. That said, it would be a close race.

Henry's best bet would be to not nationalize the race, and not accept spending from the DSCC and other outside groups, but it might not be enough.

Tom Coburn (R) 50.6%
Brad Henry (D) 49.4%