CBS final 1980 election battleground map

[OSR stands with Israel]

CBS did not separate out lean or likely , just on states they thought would go to Reagan , Carter and were battlegrounds

Reagan/Bush 187
Carter/Mondale 91
Battlegrounds 260

[OSR stands with Israel]

So CBS was extremely conservative in their predictions and seemed to only basically count states that we would call Likely and Safe into each candidate column . Lean states they didn’t put in either candidate column

[Podgy the Bear]

This was probably the accurate reading of the country--probably one week before the election.  Carter and Reagan were running rather close during this period, and John Anderson was in descent by this time.

Then came the debate and the so-called "October Surprise", and the undecided vote broke rapidly for Reagan.

Time and Newsweek had similar statewide polls--and they tended to be somewhat more aggressive in their calling--like having Carter ahead in New York, Tennessee, South Carolina, and even Pennsylvania (all of which Carter lost).  And they weren't polling at the frequency we see today.   This tended to make the 1980 election seem closer than it actually was and the feeling was that the election was too close to call.   

The Reagan and Carter campaigns had daily tracking polls and were aware of the growing landslide, but without cable and the Internet, this was never known to the general public until after the fact.   And that's why for a lot of people, Election Night turned out to be a shock.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This was probably the accurate reading of the country--probably one week before the election.  Carter and Reagan were running rather close during this period, and John Anderson was in descent by this time.

Then came the debate and the so-called "October Surprise", and the undecided vote broke rapidly for Reagan.

Time and Newsweek had similar statewide polls--and they tended to be somewhat more aggressive in their calling--like having Carter ahead in New York, Tennessee, South Carolina, and even Pennsylvania (all of which Carter lost).  And they weren't polling at the frequency we see today.   This tended to make the 1980 election seem closer than it actually was and the feeling was that the election was too close to call.  

The Reagan and Carter campaigns had daily tracking polls and were aware of the growing landslide, but without cable and the Internet, this was never known to the general public until after the fact.   And that's why for a lot of people, Election Night turned out to be a shock.

Though even from this map it shows really how much trouble Carter was in and given that TX, the PNW , and OH were considered more or less a reach at that point he pretty much needed to pull an inside straight to have a chance to win .

What happened instead was Reagan pulled an inside straight turning a semi close victory into a landslide

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Carter almost did worse in NC than DE. Oops there.

[Podgy the Bear]

The CBS pre-election broadcast from November 3, 1980 is remarkable to watch--especially from the standpoint that you already know how it turned out but want to see what everyone was saying the day before.

Overall, the CBS group (Cronkite, Rather, Reasoner, Schieffer, Stahl) did a very good job in their prognostications.   It was clear that Carter was in considerable trouble.  Even in the too close to call states, he was behind in states like Ohio by 4, Michigan by 9--and they made mention that he was not going to do as well in the East and South as he did in 1976.  They did not know how the hostage crisis was going to play out--but Cronkite was probably right when he said that if the hostages had been released the weekend before the election, that may have changed everything.  The implication was that because the hostages were not released, it would hurt Carter (and it did--big time).

Today's world seems to resemble what happened in 1980.  Trump is in serious trouble for re-election, and like Carter's handling of the hostage crisis, the current COVID-19 crisis will be the determining factor of whether Trump wins or loses in November.  

It's not looking good for Trump to this point, and as a result, he has to go negative on Biden to have a chance.  Carter attempted to do that to Reagan (but not nearly to the ferocity that Trump will).   I suspect that this will further alienate Trump from several blocs (he is already falling behind in the over 65 vote), and the undecided and unaffiliated vote will break heavily to Biden.

[Epaminondas]

Funny how Reagan's 1980 win gets dubbed a landslide because of bright colours on a map, when he actually won a smaller share of the US population than Obama did in both his wins.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Funny how Reagan's 1980 win gets dubbed a landslide because of bright colours on a map, when he actually won a smaller share of the US population than Obama did in both his wins.

Reagan won by a large % margin than Obama did either time and Anderson i believe they concluded while it did hurt Carter more not by much.

The CBS pre-election broadcast from November 3, 1980 is remarkable to watch--especially from the standpoint that you already know how it turned out but want to see what everyone was saying the day before.

Overall, the CBS group (Cronkite, Rather, Reasoner, Schieffer, Stahl) did a very good job in their prognostications.   It was clear that Carter was in considerable trouble.  Even in the too close to call states, he was behind in states like Ohio by 4, Michigan by 9--and they made mention that he was not going to do as well in the East and South as he did in 1976.  They did not know how the hostage crisis was going to play out--but Cronkite was probably right when he said that if the hostages had been released the weekend before the election, that may have changed everything.  The implication was that because the hostages were not released, it would hurt Carter (and it did--big time).

Today's world seems to resemble what happened in 1980.  Trump is in serious trouble for re-election, and like Carter's handling of the hostage crisis, the current COVID-19 crisis will be the determining factor of whether Trump wins or loses in November.  

It's not looking good for Trump to this point, and as a result, he has to go negative on Biden to have a chance.  Carter attempted to do that to Reagan (but not nearly to the ferocity that Trump will).   I suspect that this will further alienate Trump from several blocs (he is already falling behind in the over 65 vote), and the undecided and unaffiliated vote will break heavily to Biden.

He also posted the post election analysis and they basically concluded that the Senate results where the Republicans gained 12 seats (and effectively 13 as Javits was replaced by D'Amato) were even more stunning that the electoral vote and were talking a potential of that meaning it not being another change election but a chance election like 1932.

But yah  even before hand it seems like they are basically saying Carter needs an inside straight to even have a chance of winning

 

[brucejoel99]

Carter almost did worse in NC than DE. Oops there.

NC was a lot more Democratic & DE a lot more Republican than they are today.

[Orser67]

It's interesting to see that except for Hawaii and a couple close states in the Pacific Northwest, almost every Western state was regarded as Safe Republican here.

I've always wondered how/why the West became so Republican in presidential elections from the 1950s to the 1980s. Truman did pretty well in the West in 1948 and Clinton won several states in 1992, but in between only a handful of Western states voted for Democrats (with two major exceptions: Hawaii usually voted Dem, and LBJ won several Western states in his 1964 landslide).

[Skye]

What we suspect, right now, is one of the closest races ever.

This quote is absolutely amazing.

[Wikipedia delenda est]

It's interesting to see that except for Hawaii and a couple close states in the Pacific Northwest, almost every Western state was regarded as Safe Republican here.

I've always wondered how/why the West became so Republican in presidential elections from the 1950s to the 1980s. Truman did pretty well in the West in 1948 and Clinton won several states in 1992, but in between only a handful of Western states voted for Democrats (with two major exceptions: Hawaii usually voted Dem, and LBJ won several Western states in his 1964 landslide).

I'm not quite sure how it happened either. But I think it has something to do with the emergence of the New Right, as the Western states seem to have been perceived as very libertarian in that period, while Democrats and liberals were associated with the "Eastern establishment." I haven't read it all yet, but this contemporaneous article from a libertarian magazine seems to be a good source for how the east/west divide was perceived at the time. I think it's also important to remember that many of the major Republican nominees of the time like Goldwater, Nixon, and Reagan were all from western states.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Carter almost did worse in NC than DE. Oops there.

NC was a lot more Democratic & DE a lot more Republican than they are today.

The point is that safe opposite way states aren't supposed to vote that similiarly.