Predict the Vote Shares/Margins in battleground states
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  Predict the Vote Shares/Margins in battleground states		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Predict the Vote Shares/Margins in battleground states  (Read 1269 times)
Joe Boden
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« on: May 15, 2020, 04:07:58 AM »
these include

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
Maine
Minnesota
Nevada
Texas
New Hampshire
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2020, 05:11:49 AM »
AZ, MI, PA, and WI are battlegrounds for Biden

TX, IA, GA, NC, OH, FL are going to Trump, just like Emerson polls has it
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Joe Boden
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2020, 09:13:04 AM »
Heres mine

Virginia Biden +10
Colorado Biden +9
New Mexico Biden +9
Nevada Biden +5
Minnesota Biden +5
Maine Biden +4
New Hampshire Biden +3
Michigan Biden +3
Pennsylvania Biden +2
Arizona Biden +1
Wisconsin Trump +0
Florida Trump +1
North Carolina Trump +1
Georgia Trump +3
Texas Trump +5
Ohio Trump +5
Iowa Trump +6
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2020, 09:20:13 AM »
Colorado Biden +10
Virginia: Biden +9
New Mexico Biden +8
Maine Biden +6
Nevada Biden +5
Minnesota Biden +3
Michigan Biden +2
Pennsylvania Biden +2
Arizona Trump +2
Georgia Trump +2
Wisconsin Trump +3
North Carolina Trump +3
Florida Trump +5
Texas Trump +5
Ohio Trump +5
Iowa Trump +7
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andjey
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2020, 09:35:34 AM »
My list of battleground states

Maine: Biden +10
Michigan: Biden +8
Minnesota: Biden +7
Pennsylvania: Biden +6
Nevada: Biden +5
Arizona: Biden +5
Wisconsin: Biden +4
New Hampshire: Biden +4
North Carolina: Biden +2
Florida: Biden +1
Ohio: Biden +0
Georgia: Trump +2
Texas: Trump +3
Iowa: Trump +7

Bonus:
Virginia: Biden +11
Colorado: Biden +11
New Mexico: Biden +9
Montana: Trump +5
Kansas: Trump +9
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Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2020, 11:14:44 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2020, 11:17:59 AM by Arizona Iced Tea »
Michigan Biden +3
Pennsylvania Biden +1
Wisconsin Trump+2
Arizona Trump+2
Florida Trump+2
North Carolina Trump+2
Georgia Trump+3
Maine Biden +5
Minnesota Biden+4
Nevada Biden+4
Texas Trump+6
New Hampshire Biden+4
Virginia Biden+7
Ohio Trump+5
Iowa Trump+6
New Mexico Biden+9
Colorado Biden+7
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2020, 11:27:38 AM »
If current favourable environment lasts. I just have trouble finding out if it will really do.

Michigan: D+3
Pennsylvania D+3
Wisconsin: R+0
Arizona: D+6
Florida D+0
North Carolina R+1
Georgia D+1
Maine D+5
Minnesota D+2
Nevada D+7
Texas R+5
New Hampshire D+5
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2020, 11:33:50 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2020, 02:19:03 PM by Roll Roons »
Minnesota: D+7
Michigan: D+5
Maine: D+5
New Hampshire: D+3
Pennsylvania: D+3
Wisconsin: D+2
Arizona: D+2
Nebraska 2nd: D+1
Florida: D+0.5

North Carolina: R+0.7
Georgia: R+2
Ohio: R+4
Texas: R+5
Iowa: R+5.5
Maine 2nd: R+6
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538Electoral
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2020, 11:40:34 AM »
Michigan: Trump+3
Pennsylvania: Trump+3
Wisconsin: Trump+3
Arizona: Trump+6
Florida: Trump+4
North Carolina: Trump+4
Georgia: Trump+8
Maine: Trump+0.5
Minnesota: Trump+2
Nevada: Biden+1
Texas: Trump+14
New Hampshire: Trump+2
Virginia: Trump+1
Colorado: Biden+3
New Mexico: Biden+4
Ohio: Trump+12
Iowa: Trump+13
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SN2903
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2020, 11:49:45 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2020, 11:58:00 AM by SN2903 »

New Mexico Biden +8
Colorado - Biden +6
Virginia - Biden +6
Nevada - Biden +1
New Hampshire - Trump +0
Minnesota - Trump +1
Pennsylvania - Trump +1
Georgia - Trump +1
Michigan - Trump +2
Maine - Trump +2
Arizona - Trump +2
Florida - Trump +3
North Carolina - Trump +5
Wisconsin - Trump +6
Texas -  Trump +7
Ohio - Trump +10
Iowa - Trump +15
Maine 2 - Trump +20
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2020, 11:50:34 AM »
MN wont vote Trump
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2020, 11:53:21 AM »
Yes it will
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538Electoral
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2020, 11:56:05 AM »

It very well could. I suspect most people around the state aren't happy with the protests going on in Minneapolis. It's a crazy situation going on there and it's not that hard to imagine Trump could pull out a win in the state.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2020, 11:58:24 AM »
Quote from: 538Electoral on May 28, 2020, 11:56:05 AM

It very well could. I suspect most people around the state aren't happy with the protests going on in Minneapolis. It's a crazy situation going on there and it's not that hard to imagine Trump could pull out a win in the state.
Trump has even more room to grow in the rural areas in MN than MI.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2020, 12:00:43 PM »

Michigan: Biden+5
Pennsylvania: Biden+5
Wisconsin: Biden+0.5
Arizona: Biden+2
Florida: Biden+1
Maine at-large: Biden+8
Minnesota: Biden+8
Nevada: Biden+6
New Hampshire: Biden+7
Nebraska CD-2: Biden+0.1

North Carolina: Trump+0.25
Georgia: Trump+2
Ohio: Trump+3
Maine CD-2: Trump+4
Texas: Trump+4
Iowa: Trump+8
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2020, 12:03:32 PM »
Trump will not win Minnesota. Republicans have hit their ceiling. For now.

Virginia Biden +8
Colorado Biden +8
New Mexico Biden +8
Nevada Biden +4
Minnesota Biden +4
Maine Biden +4
New Hampshire Biden +4
Michigan Biden +2
Pennsylvania Biden +1
Arizona Biden +3
Wisconsin tossup, eventually decided by less than 0.5%
Florida Trump +1
North Carolina Trump +2
Georgia Trump +1
Texas Trump +4
Ohio Trump +6
Iowa Trump +4
Maine (overall): Biden +3

NE-02: Biden +1
ME-02: Trump +6
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Gracile
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« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2020, 12:16:29 PM »
Michigan: Biden +3
Pennsylvania: Biden +3
Wisconsin: Biden +1
Arizona: Biden +2
Florida: Trump +<1
North Carolina: Trump +2
Georgia: Biden +<1
Maine: Biden +4
Minnesota: Biden +4
Nevada: Biden +7
Texas: Trump +3
New Hampshire: Biden +6

Colorado: Biden +10
New Mexico: Biden +10
Virginia: Biden +12
Iowa: Trump +7
Ohio: Trump +5

NE-02: Biden +2
ME-02: Trump +9
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2020, 02:00:22 PM »
« Edited: May 28, 2020, 02:08:58 PM by MT Treasurer »
Mine are very similar to Gracile's.

NE-02: Biden +5
Michigan: Biden +3
Pennsylvania: Biden +3
Wisconsin: Biden +1
Arizona: Biden +4
Florida: Biden +1
North Carolina: Trump +<1
Georgia: Biden +<1
Maine: Biden +4
Minnesota: Biden +4
Nevada: Biden +5
Texas: Trump +2
New Hampshire: Biden +4
Ohio: Trump +4

Other, less competitive/non-competitive states:

New Mexico: Biden +9
Colorado: Biden +11
Virginia: Biden +12
Iowa: Trump +7
Utah: Trump +14
Kansas: Trump +10
Montana: Trump +9
South Carolina: Trump +9
Alaska: Trump +8
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Skye
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« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2020, 02:17:05 PM »
MN D+7
ME D+7
NV D+5
NH D+4
MI D+3
PA D+3
AZ D+2
WI D+2
FL D+0
NC R+0
GA R+1
TX R+4
OH R+5
IA R+6
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2020, 04:02:10 PM »
Michigan - Biden +5
Pennsylvania - Biden +5
Wisconsin - Tie
Arizona - Biden +3
Florida - Biden +2
North Carolina - Tie
Georgia - Trump +2
Maine - Biden +7
Minnesota - Biden +7
Nevada - Biden +2
Texas - Trump +4
New Hampshire - Biden +4
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progressive85
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« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2020, 04:17:50 PM »
as of right now I can see:

OHIO 53-46 Trump
MICHIGAN 53-46 Biden
PENNSYLVANIA 52-47 Biden
WISCONSIN 50-49 Biden
ARIZONA 51-48 Biden
GEORGIA 50-49 Trump
TEXAS 53-46 Trump
NORTH CAROLINA 50-49 Trump
IOWA 52-47 Trump
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2020, 05:35:21 PM »
Maine - Biden +19
Michigan - Biden +18
Washington - Biden +14
Pennsylvania - Biden +13
Minnesota - Biden +12
ME-02 - Biden +11
Iowa - Biden +11
North Carolina - Biden +9
Arizona - Biden +8
NPV - Biden +8
Colorado - Biden +6
Kansas - Biden +5
Oregon - Biden +3
New Mexico - Biden +2
Virginia - Biden +1
New Hampshire - Biden +<0.1
Nevada - Trump +<0.1
Florida - Trump +<0.1
NE-02 - Trump +<1
Missouri - Trump +3
Indiana - Trump +4
NE-01 - Trump +5
Georgia - Trump +6
Mississippi - Trump +7
Alaska - Trump +7
Ohio - Trump +8
South Carolina - Trump +9
Texas - Trump +10
Wisconsin - Trump +12
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2020, 05:40:26 PM »
Quote from: Xing on May 28, 2020, 05:35:21 PM
Maine - Biden +19
Michigan - Biden +18
Washington - Biden +14
Pennsylvania - Biden +13
Minnesota - Biden +12
ME-02 - Biden +11
Iowa - Biden +11
North Carolina - Biden +9
Arizona - Biden +8
NPV - Biden +8
Colorado - Biden +6
Kansas - Biden +5
Oregon - Biden +3
New Mexico - Biden +2
Virginia - Biden +1
New Hampshire - Biden +<0.1
Nevada - Trump +<0.1
Florida - Trump +<0.1
NE-02 - Trump +<1
Missouri - Trump +3
Indiana - Trump +4
NE-01 - Trump +5
Georgia - Trump +6
Mississippi - Trump +7
Alaska - Trump +7
Ohio - Trump +8
South Carolina - Trump +9
Texas - Trump +10
Wisconsin - Trump +12

Wow this list is wild lol

Trump wins Wisconsin by 12 points? Biden wins Michigan by 18? Virginia is only Biden+1? Biden wins Iowa by 11?

I'd love to see you expand on these, because I don't see how any of these are compatible.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #23 on: May 28, 2020, 06:46:53 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on May 28, 2020, 05:40:26 PM
Quote from: Xing on May 28, 2020, 05:35:21 PM
Maine - Biden +19
Michigan - Biden +18
Washington - Biden +14
Pennsylvania - Biden +13
Minnesota - Biden +12
ME-02 - Biden +11
Iowa - Biden +11
North Carolina - Biden +9
Arizona - Biden +8
NPV - Biden +8
Colorado - Biden +6
Kansas - Biden +5
Oregon - Biden +3
New Mexico - Biden +2
Virginia - Biden +1
New Hampshire - Biden +<0.1
Nevada - Trump +<0.1
Florida - Trump +<0.1
NE-02 - Trump +<1
Missouri - Trump +3
Indiana - Trump +4
NE-01 - Trump +5
Georgia - Trump +6
Mississippi - Trump +7
Alaska - Trump +7
Ohio - Trump +8
South Carolina - Trump +9
Texas - Trump +10
Wisconsin - Trump +12

Wow this list is wild lol

Trump wins Wisconsin by 12 points? Biden wins Michigan by 18? Virginia is only Biden+1? Biden wins Iowa by 11?

I'd love to see you expand on these, because I don't see how any of these are compatible.

I was joking, just exaggerating some forum memes. Here’s my actual prediction, subject to regular change:

New Mexico - Biden +11
Virginia - Biden +9
Colorado - Biden +8
Nevada - Biden +7
Maine - Biden +5
NPV - Biden +4
Minnesota - Biden +4
New Hampshire - Biden +3
NE-02 - Biden +2
Pennsylvania - Biden +2
Michigan - Biden +1
Wisconsin - Biden +1
Arizona - Biden +<1
Florida - Trump +<1
Georgia - Trump +1
North Carolina - Trump +2
Texas - Trump +4
Ohio - Trump +6
Iowa - Trump +7
ME-02 - Trump +9
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Bomster
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« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2020, 08:03:01 PM »
Michigan D+3
Pennsylvania D+4
Wisconsin D+2
Arizona D+2
Florida D+1
North Carolina R+1
Georgia R+3
Maine D+10
Minnesota D+7
Nevada D+5
Texas R+6
New Hampshire D+4
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