What if an 16-20 week abortion ban was passed by amendment in the 1980s

[OSR stands with Israel]

How would our politics look today if that amendment was passed in the 1980s and the issue was mostly settled due to that.


What social/cultural issue would dominate politics and how would this change politics and trends that have happened since 1992

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Females dont need abortions, they have condoms,  birth control pills and adoption,  it's no big deal. But, Thomas probably doesnt get nominated by Bush Sr

Biden does the right thing and blocks Thomas and another Kennedy is appointed

[Roronoa D. Law]

Homosexuality likely would have been a bigger issue than it is now. Not sure if Democrats will be as adamant about it though as Republicans will likely raise the issue in a graphic and inappropriate manner in an attempt to disgust the public. They will still likely be on the losing side though when more Matt Shepard inevitable happens in schools or even worse inside homes and the media will likely raise the issue. Not to mention the Catholic church scandal will still come to light hurt the Christian Right and put Republicans in an awkward situation.   

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... that would be early enough that social issue polarization may just never happen. 

Average 2020 Republican in that world = Hogan/Baker

Average 2020 Democrat = JBE

[😥]

Hmmm... that would be early enough that social issue polarization may just never happen. 

Average 2020 Republican in that world = Hogan/Baker

Average 2020 Democrat = JBE

Generally agree with this. And this would be great. Socially conservative, economically progressive Democrats like JBE, Ike Skelton, Bob Casey Jr., Solomon Ortiz vs socially progressive, economically moderate Republicans like Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan and Phil Scott. It would be amazing!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

How would our politics look today if that amendment was passed in the 1980s and the issue was mostly settled due to that.


What social/cultural issue would dominate politics and how would this change politics and trends that have happened since 1992

It’d reduce the cultural divide between urban and rural areas a bit because the public would break slightly more in favour of allowing constitutionally permissible abortions, but not by much (I think). Many of the same old soldiers would be fighting the same war in different battlegrounds: the level of resources dedicated to enforcement of the ban, whether the ban should be extended to any abortion after 10 weeks, etc. It’s not as if the fights now over heartbeat bills and “partial birth’ get to the crux of the issues the pro-life/pro-choice crowds have.

The Democrats would do slightly better out of this electorally, but not by much.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... that would be early enough that social issue polarization may just never happen. 

Average 2020 Republican in that world = Hogan/Baker

Average 2020 Democrat = JBE

Generally agree with this. And this would be great. Socially conservative, economically progressive Democrats like JBE, Ike Skelton, Bob Casey Jr., Solomon Ortiz vs socially progressive, economically moderate Republicans like Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan and Phil Scott. It would be amazing!

I basically think this would lock in the Carter map coalitions for a generation. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hmmm... that would be early enough that social issue polarization may just never happen. 

Average 2020 Republican in that world = Hogan/Baker

Average 2020 Democrat = JBE

Generally agree with this. And this would be great. Socially conservative, economically progressive Democrats like JBE, Ike Skelton, Bob Casey Jr., Solomon Ortiz vs socially progressive, economically moderate Republicans like Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan and Phil Scott. It would be amazing!

I basically think this would lock in the Carter map coalitions for a generation. 

No it wouldnt , maybe more the Bill Clinton map but much of the reason the South shifted was due to the rise of the suburbs and then later Baby Boomers replacing GI Gen as the largest voting block.

Also states such as WV would still shift as Climate Change would still be a huge issue and Republicans being the more pro business party would less likely to be in favor of more regulations than the democrats so WV would still become republican.

[darklordoftech]

Hmmm... that would be early enough that social issue polarization may just never happen.  

Average 2020 Republican in that world = Hogan/Baker

Average 2020 Democrat = JBE

Generally agree with this. And this would be great. Socially conservative, economically progressive Democrats like JBE, Ike Skelton, Bob Casey Jr., Solomon Ortiz vs socially progressive, economically moderate Republicans like Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan and Phil Scott. It would be amazing!

I basically think this would lock in the Carter map coalitions for a generation.  

No it wouldnt , maybe more the Bill Clinton map but much of the reason the South shifted was due to the rise of the suburbs and then later Baby Boomers replacing GI Gen as the largest voting block.

I’m sure a good portion of those suburban and Boomer voters vote based on their hatred of abortion.

[freepcrusher]

I'm at the point where the dems should think about something like that. 95% of abortions are in the first trimester so something like that would be a win while handing the republicans a symbolic victory.