Election Odds
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Miamiu1027
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« on: May 23, 2004, 07:59:54 PM »
ODDS OF WINNING THE ATLAS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

May 23, 2004

Gustaf (UAC) SOS: 57.5%
Nym90 (D) President: 39.5%
Reaganfan (R) No Title: 1.9%
StevenNick99 (CP) Senator: 0.6%
StatesRights (SR) Senator: 0.5%
Other <.1%
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StevenNick
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« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2004, 08:04:09 PM »
Gustaf probably has better odds than that.

And I think I have at lease a 1% chance of winning.  Grin
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2004, 08:05:55 PM »
Quote from: Senator StevenNick on May 23, 2004, 08:04:09 PM
Gustaf probably has better odds than that.

I would ahve said the same thing an hour ago, but then I read that he lost the survey.
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StevenNick
StevenNick99
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« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2004, 08:08:42 PM »
Quote from: Boss Tweed on May 23, 2004, 08:05:55 PM
Quote from: Senator StevenNick on May 23, 2004, 08:04:09 PM
Gustaf probably has better odds than that.

I would ahve said the same thing an hour ago, but then I read that he lost the survey.

Yeah, but I'm not sure how accurate the survey really is.  I know my veep didn't fill out a survey because only one person identified me as their first choice (LOL).  I'm sure there were plenty of other voters who didn't fill out the survey.
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TheWildCard
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« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2004, 08:19:21 PM »
Quote from: Senator StevenNick on May 23, 2004, 08:08:42 PM
Quote from: Boss Tweed on May 23, 2004, 08:05:55 PM
Quote from: Senator StevenNick on May 23, 2004, 08:04:09 PM
Gustaf probably has better odds than that.

I would ahve said the same thing an hour ago, but then I read that he lost the survey.

Yeah, but I'm not sure how accurate the survey really is.  I know my veep didn't fill out a survey because only one person identified me as their first choice (LOL).  I'm sure there were plenty of other voters who didn't fill out the survey.

Yes and note I did say that the first 4 questions should be taken with a grain of salt.
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StevenNick
StevenNick99
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2004, 08:52:47 PM »
We'll see how the next survey turns out.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2004, 07:11:37 AM »
We should use ARG's MoE calculator to calculate the MoE of these surveys.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2004, 09:44:36 AM »
Quote from: Boss Tweed on May 23, 2004, 07:59:54 PM
ODDS OF WINNING THE ATLAS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

May 23, 2004

Gustaf (UAC) SOS: 57.5%
Nym90 (D) President: 39.5%
Reaganfan (R) No Title: 1.9%
StevenNick99 (CP) Senator: 0.6%
StatesRights (SR) Senator: 0.5%
Other <.1%

I feel confident.
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Gustaf
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E: 0.39, S: -0.70

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« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2004, 11:00:58 AM »
Back to the old 'call the election prematurely' trick? Wink

Nym has a better chance than that...all the UAC-hate might help him.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2004, 11:06:08 AM »
It's not clear at all who won that survey. Nym got more first preferences, but he'd have to secure lower preferences from three of the 8 Rep-er-CP, SRP and ANP voters to win.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2004, 11:11:10 AM »
Quote from: Lewis on May 24, 2004, 11:06:08 AM
It's not clear at all who won that survey. Nym got more first preferences, but he'd have to secure lower preferences from three of the 8 Rep-er-CP, SRP and ANP voters to win.

That's true, the first survey didn't really help much, since we need series of preferenences to make any sense out of it. Like the new one has.
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