WI-Marquette: Biden +3

[wbrocks67]

Trump virus approval: 44/51 (-7)
Trump job approval: 47/49 (-2)

31% strongly approve, 42% strongly disapprove

Joe Biden fav: 42/46 (-4)
Bernie Sanders fav: 40/48 (-8)
Trump fav: 44/51 (-7)

[wbrocks67]

Wow, the Biden seniors thing is real. The subsample of 60+ was nearly 300 voters, so it's a pretty good sample actually.

For favorability - though, I think it's underselling him a bit for 30-59 (18-29 is understandable since most are probably Bernie ppl still upset)

18-29: 38/48
30-44: 35/54
45-59: 34/51
60+: 55/37

[wbrocks67]

Comparing with the exits in 2016, it looks like this would be like Biden +5 judging by the shifts. Biden winning Whites by 2 when Trump won them by 11 would signal to me more of a 3-4 pt shift? Meanwhile, the samples for 60+ are more reliable than the 30-44 sample so I'm gonna say that the 30-44 sample here, that has Trump +12 (Clinton +18 in 2016) is likely underselling Biden.

Judging from the crosstabs, it would appear Biden has a lot more upside.

Males: Trump +18 (Trump +14 in 2016)
Females: Biden +22 (Clinton +10 in 2016)

18-29: Biden +10 (Clinton +3 in 2016)
30-44: Trump +12 (Clinton +18 in 2016)
45-59: Trump +7 (Trump +15 in 2016)
60+: Biden +18 (Trump +1 in 2016)

Indies: Biden +10 (Trump +10 in 2016)

Whites: Trump +2 (Trump +11 in 2016)
Blacks: Biden +87 (Clinton +86 in 2016)

[wbrocks67]

Is there a likely explanation for the massive swing in 30-44 year-olds other than undecideds? It just seems like too huge of a swing to be accounted for purely by an unfortunately inaccurate sampling of voters.

I think it's just a bad sample. Clinton and Evers both won this group pretty handily (+10%)

[wbrocks67]

State polls weren't necessarily that bad in 2016, but they had a LOT of undecideds, which made the races very unsure - and those undecideds largely went for Trump