WI-Marquette: Biden +3
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  WI-Marquette: Biden +3
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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Biden +3  (Read 2526 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« on: May 12, 2020, 12:26:11 PM »

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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2020, 12:29:30 PM »

Shows Biden has a good but narrow lead.(as expected right around now)

Marquette really deserves a lot of credit for actively fixing their errors from 2016(overpolling educated) and then nailing 2 races in 2018 with an almost exact margin for each one.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2020, 12:38:08 PM »

WI is going to be close all the way through the end I think - no matter who comes out on top.
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Devils30
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2020, 12:41:23 PM »

Arizona is just a better target for Biden, more urban, less white.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2020, 12:42:39 PM »

11% undecided makes it a bit too hard to take too much away from this other than "close state is close."

Arizona is just a better target for Biden, more urban, less white.

This is a false choice. He can and will target both.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2020, 12:44:19 PM »

Trump virus approval: 44/51 (-7)
Trump job approval: 47/49 (-2)

31% strongly approve, 42% strongly disapprove

Joe Biden fav: 42/46 (-4)
Bernie Sanders fav: 40/48 (-8)
Trump fav: 44/51 (-7)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2020, 12:47:23 PM »

Wow, the Biden seniors thing is real. The subsample of 60+ was nearly 300 voters, so it's a pretty good sample actually.

For favorability - though, I think it's underselling him a bit for 30-59 (18-29 is understandable since most are probably Bernie ppl still upset)

18-29: 38/48
30-44: 35/54
45-59: 34/51
60+: 55/37
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2020, 12:50:19 PM »

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Marquette Law School on 2020-05-07

Summary: D: 46%, R: 43%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Devils30
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« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2020, 12:50:49 PM »

Biden can win both...I'm just saying AZ is probably going to have better numbers for Biden. Considering his numbers with seniors, FL very likely could as well.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2020, 12:53:05 PM »

Comparing with the exits in 2016, it looks like this would be like Biden +5 judging by the shifts. Biden winning Whites by 2 when Trump won them by 11 would signal to me more of a 3-4 pt shift? Meanwhile, the samples for 60+ are more reliable than the 30-44 sample so I'm gonna say that the 30-44 sample here, that has Trump +12 (Clinton +18 in 2016) is likely underselling Biden.

Judging from the crosstabs, it would appear Biden has a lot more upside.

Males: Trump +18 (Trump +14 in 2016)
Females: Biden +22 (Clinton +10 in 2016)

18-29: Biden +10 (Clinton +3 in 2016)
30-44: Trump +12 (Clinton +18 in 2016)
45-59: Trump +7 (Trump +15 in 2016)
60+: Biden +18 (Trump +1 in 2016)

Indies: Biden +10 (Trump +10 in 2016)

Whites: Trump +2 (Trump +11 in 2016)
Blacks: Biden +87 (Clinton +86 in 2016)
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #10 on: May 12, 2020, 12:58:57 PM »

Yeah, this state is going to be tight.
Biden and team need to put time and effort here. Maybe previous Dem candidates can help by making repeated stops in WI (if rallies are allowed in Sept/Oct).
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Devils30
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« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2020, 01:01:00 PM »

It is ominous to Trump that the undecideds are younger and unlikely to break last minute like 2016s did.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2020, 01:06:17 PM »

Another awful poll for the President.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #13 on: May 12, 2020, 01:17:23 PM »

Beet told me that Biden was going to collapse though.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: May 12, 2020, 01:21:01 PM »

Beet told me that Biden was going to collapse though.

His lead is narrowing from his high at 10 pts in April in the height of COVID 19. TARA READE and more testing is containing the virus and it's likely to go back to a close race.

That's why we see more fight in Trump
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #15 on: May 12, 2020, 01:22:02 PM »

We need another VA poll and another NH poll and then the Atlas polling map will be correct.

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Crumpets
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« Reply #16 on: May 12, 2020, 01:23:08 PM »

Not good enough.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2020, 01:25:33 PM »

Meh, not great. If the election is close, I could actually see Wisconsin going for Trump, while at least one of Arizona, Florida or North Carolina put Biden over the top. Pennsylvania and Michigan obviously flip back here.
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Devils30
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« Reply #18 on: May 12, 2020, 01:33:03 PM »

Largest metro areas:

7) Miami
8 Philadelphia
10) Phoenix
14) Detroit
18) Tampa
23) Orlando
27) Pittsburgh
39) Milwaukee

That explains a lot of the trends we see
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2020, 01:35:12 PM »

Beet told me that Biden was going to collapse though.

His lead is narrowing from his high at 10 pts in April in the height of COVID 19. TARA READE and more testing is containing the virus and it's likely to go back to a close race.

That's why we see more fight in Trump
Biden's lead hasn't narrowed lol
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2020, 01:35:38 PM »

Is there a likely explanation for the massive swing in 30-44 year-olds other than undecideds? It just seems like too huge of a swing to be accounted for purely by an unfortunately inaccurate sampling of voters.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2020, 02:11:12 PM »

ooof incumbent president only at 43 in a swing state that demographically should be very good to him...those senior numbers are very bad for trends in other states
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President Johnson
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« Reply #22 on: May 12, 2020, 02:12:26 PM »

Largest metro areas:

7) Miami
8 Philadelphia
10) Phoenix
14) Detroit
18) Tampa
23) Orlando
27) Pittsburgh
39) Milwaukee

That explains a lot of the trends we see

I agree. That's also a major reason Iowa is pretty hard to win for Biden.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #23 on: May 12, 2020, 02:23:55 PM »

Pretty much in line with expectations, given most polling nationally and in other states.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #24 on: May 12, 2020, 03:07:26 PM »

As deaths mount among the elderly from COVID-19, the young adults will be furious at the President. Millennial adults may have disagreed with their grandparents on politics, but they are not going to forgive pointless deaths resulting from neglectful, callous leadership.
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