WI-Marquette: Biden +3

[tagimaucia]

ooof incumbent president only at 43 in a swing state that demographically should be very good to him...those senior numbers are very bad for trends in other states

Yeah, intuitively I'd have to think that Trump as an incumbent losing 46-49 here would bode a little bit better for him than 43-46. But I'm not sure if empirically I'm right about that or not.

[ElectionsGuy]

Some of these crosstabs are downright bizarre. The poll overall looks okay, but no way this huge Biden lead with seniors holds like it is now. The numbers with whites and independents would suggest something more along the lines of Baldwin's victory rather than Ever's too, so I'm surprised the poll is as Trump-friendly as it is.

[wbrocks67]

Is there a likely explanation for the massive swing in 30-44 year-olds other than undecideds? It just seems like too huge of a swing to be accounted for purely by an unfortunately inaccurate sampling of voters.

I think it's just a bad sample. Clinton and Evers both won this group pretty handily (+10%)

[Devils30]

The WI-7 results are pretty consistent with this poll. Slight improvement by the Ds but not much...enough to gain a super tiny amount of votes in rural WI where along with improvement in Milwaukee burbs seems like Biden +3 is plausible.

[jamestroll]

Not good enough.

Biden has various national leads between 4 and 10. It is not unreasonable to believe that 1) Biden is leading by a small margin in Wisconsin and 2) that Wisconsin will be to the right of the nation.

Polling is not perfect now but it does seem to have improved since the 2016 cycle when we had many voters on the verge of switching sides. Now people often do forget that national polls were not that off in 2016 cycle at the end but state polls were often wildly off.

But now that people are more sorted and comfortable with their side I do buy that Biden has a small lead in Wisconsin.

[wbrocks67]

State polls weren't necessarily that bad in 2016, but they had a LOT of undecideds, which made the races very unsure - and those undecideds largely went for Trump

[Wiz in Wis]

Looks like Madison and Milwaukee have the most DK/NA Refused NOTA votes... suggesting that Biden has more upside here.

[MT Treasurer]

I know I’m an irrational smug overconfident Biden hack for believing this, but I think Trump trailing in WI + PA + MI + AZ + NE-02 + FL + NC, tied with Biden in GA in two Republican internals, and only narrowly ahead in OH/IA/TX is probably a sign that he’s an underdog in this election, but 2016 and polarization I guess.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In spite of the large number of undecideds, Trump can't even seem to poll beyond 43% or so in important battleground states too.

[Badger]

The supporters of known serial rapist Donald Trump must be most upset at this result.