NE-02 D Internal- Biden +11, Eastman +1

[NOVA Green]

I knew it!
I kept pointing to how Biden will win NE-02 (with the numbers we are seeing at this time).
But I didnt see that big of a lead in this district. That's huge.

This is an urban district. Omaha is much more like Denver or Chicago than like the farm-and-ranch country of central and western Nebraska. This may say more about Iowa than about Nebraska, as Iowa has urban areas that can swing hard against Trump.

Although roughly 70% of the population lives within the City Limits of Omaha, it is a bit of a sprawling City, so includes some areas that might be considered more "suburban" in other places.

It is also significant to note that you have some areas that might more properly be considered "exurban", with even some smattering of "rurals" in far NW Douglas County, and some parts of SW Sarpy County.

That being said, I agree with your fundamental point the compare & contrast regarding NE-02 vs the other two CDs within NE, as well as implications in Iowa.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Wow that Biden lead and the gap between him and Eastman are both shocking. Not that I'd be surprised if Biden won it, but by double digits is insane.

Soccer Mom's are back in force, just like they were in 1996.

[NOVA Green]

Good. In a close election, winning this 1 vote could be the difference between winning & losing.

I think if Biden takes NE-2, he has already won the election.

Not necessarily. Suburban areas are turning on Trump in a big way. And NE-02 was already closer than any state Trump won except MI, PA, WI, and FL. It's theoretically possible that the continued suburban trends against Trump are enough to deliver Biden this district but not the rust belt, or at least not all of it. Unlikely, but possible.

So I already responded regarding the urban/suburban/exurban nature of the district in my previous post.

*However* it should be noted that upper-middle-class (By Nebraska Standards) did not experience the same types of massive swings towards HRC in '16 that many other communities did...

IF these poll numbers end up holding up, I suspect that it will be as a result in swings between '16 and '20 "making up for lost ground" vs the '12 to '16 relative lack of swings within Sarpy County and similar parts of Douglas County....

So to quote from a post that I made on one of the '16 Election Result threads:

Pulled a few numbers from the wealthiest places in Nebraska...

1.) Waverly- (Lancaster County) MHI $77.7k-  Pop 3.4k

2012: (36 D- 62 R)        +26 R
2016: (25 D- 68 R)        +43 R     (+17% Rep Swing)

*** Note that Lancaster does not break down absentee ballots by Precinct for either '12 nor '16, which was roughly 25% of the County vote. Also, note that in the County absentee ballots were heavily Dem in both elections, so we have a potential significant distortion with any precinct level results here.

2.) Gretna-   (Sarpy County)--- MHI $73.7k-  Pop 5.1k

Precincts 59 & 60

2012: (32 D- 66 R)      +34 R
2016: (29 D- 62 R)      +33 R   (+1% D Swing)

3.) Papillion- (Sarpy County)--- MHI $ 72.4k- Pop 20.2k

Precincts 36,38,39,40, & 42).... There appears to be a few split precincts not included, but had to work with the best data available.

2012: (36 D- 62 R)       +26 R
2016: (33 D- 57 R)       +24 R   (+2% D Swing)

4.) Yankee Hill- (Lancaster County)- MHI $93.6- Pop 730

2012: (37 D- 62 R)        +25 R
2016: (32 D- 61 R)        +29 R   (+4% R Swing)

So again, insert caveat about absentee votes in Lancaster County....

Interestingly enough Nebraska appears to be one of the few states in the Country thus far where there does not appear to have been a swing towards Clinton of upper-income voters, based upon this limited data selection...

Some of this might be the imbalance inherent in solely looking at MHI by cities/places.... so for example it could well be that there are relatively wealthy precincts in Omaha and Lincoln for example where there were significant swings towards the Democratic Party in '16.... I mean even looking at uninc areas in West Houston Texas, this phenomenon was evident.

To what extent is there a "selection bias" and differences in relatively affluent voting patterns in places like Omaha and Lincoln where real estate is relatively cheap between those that would rather live in Exurban settings versus in nice leafy older neighborhoods within a "City"?


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.75

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Good. In a close election, winning this 1 vote could be the difference between winning & losing.

I think if Biden takes NE-2, he has already won the election.

To the contrary I think Biden wins here even if he narrowly loses. He's a perfect fit and it's the type of area that's trending to the Dems at lightning speed.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The DCCC's hatred for Eastman is hilarious. With this poll they're basically saying "if she wins, it's because of Biden."

Um... are you implying the DCCC outright made up the results of this poll to make Eastman look bad and/or Biden look good?

K.

They wouldn't have had to manufacture anything - they could have just tilted the question somewhat by polling 'Trump vs Biden' and 'incumbent Bacon vs JD Kara Eastman'. Alternatively, they could have just chosen to release the worst of several surveys for Eastman. Though I doubt either of these to be the case, it's not entirely unheard of when it comes to internal polling in primaries, and it was during Eastman's primary that this particular survey was fielded. Whether the DCCC likes her or not, I highly doubt this sort of hostility will persist into the GE given that MI + PA + NE is an EC tie and a plausible scenario.

You ever consider that maybe, just maybe, Biden actually is doing better in this district than Eastman as the poll shows? Would that REALLY be so hard to believe when Eastman already blew this election in a blue wave year in 2018, losing along with every single other Justice Democrat nominee?

Perhaps this qualifies as pedantry, but 6 Justice Democrats won. None of these were in competitive districts, but with the exception of Eastman, none of the GE losers were in competitive districts, either (they endorsed a relatively small number of candidates who got the nomination, so 'all of the candidates did X or Y' isn't going to depend on a reliable sample size).

[Progressive Pessimist]

I always knew that this district was an underrated pickup possibility for the Democrats at both electoral levels. Sure, it's only one electoral vote, but it may suggest positive developments out of other Midwestern states.

[NOVA Green]

Amazing how we have all of these Atlas "Experts" regarding NE-02, but nobody commenting about the differences between Douglas and Sarpy Counties, let alone the compare and contrasts when it comes to the actual voters within these Counties by place...

Apparently nobody is interested in actually looking at the district in any level of detail, but rather Avatars of various stripes prefer to look at NE-02 simply based upon PVI with no intellectual interest nor questions regarding who the actual residents of the District are, where they live, etc...

Atlas 101 is once again a simplistic and reductionist argument, similar to discussions regarding ME-02 when it comes to 2020 Elections....

We do have some posters from Nebraska and regional areas who might be able to provide us with a greater level of detail, but at this point I am not particularly interested in the skin-deep commentary and "analysis" posted thus far.

[DaleCooper]

Sarpy county tends to vote about as Republican as the state at large in recent presidential elections and much more Republican than Douglas county votes Democrat (when it does), but Douglas county has about 400,000 more people in it than Sarpy and can sway the district on its own, especially if mobilized like in 2008. If Biden gets a majority of votes in Douglas county, he's the heavy favorite to win the district unless a massive, completely unrealistic swing towards Trump occurs in Sarpy county.

[Calthrina950]

Sarpy county tends to vote about as Republican as the state at large in recent presidential elections and much more Republican than Douglas county votes Democrat (when it does), but Douglas county has about 400,000 more people in it than Sarpy and can sway the district on its own, especially if mobilized like in 2008. If Biden gets a majority of votes in Douglas county, he's the heavy favorite to win the district unless a massive, completely unrealistic swing towards Trump occurs in Sarpy county.

This is somewhat unrelated, but how do you think Douglas and Lancaster Counties will vote in this year's Senatorial race? I would imagine that Ben Sasse will, thanks to polarization, do several points worse this year than in 2014. I know that in 2018, the opponents of both Fischer and Ricketts carried the two counties with majorities.

[Adam Griffin]

The DCCC's hatred for Eastman is hilarious. With this poll they're basically saying "if she wins, it's because of Biden."

Um... are you implying the DCCC outright made up the results of this poll to make Eastman look bad and/or Biden look good?

K.

You ever consider that maybe, just maybe, Biden actually is doing better in this district than Eastman as the poll shows? Would that REALLY be so hard to believe when Eastman already blew this election in a blue wave year in 2018, losing along with every single other Justice Democrat nominee?

No. I simply noted that the DCCC's hatred (maybe the wrong word, let's go instead with clear apathy) for Eastman is hilarious, and that they're using this poll to send the message that she's a weak general election candidate who, if she wins, will probably do so on Biden's coattails. If I had to guess, they're setting themselves up to triage her again even though all signs point to the race being winnable.

The poll itself actually doesn't even make Eastman look that weak, it just makes Bacon look strong. There's a big obsession with margins in polling even though vote share matters significantly more - Eastman is within the MOE of Biden whereas Bacon is outperforming Trump by a statistically significant margin.

Also I'm no fan of Justice Dem candidates (they generally suck at both comms and turnout) but blaming Eastman for her loss in 2018 is dishonest at best. Among Bacon, Eastman, the NRCC, and the DCCC, only one of those four acted as though the race wasn't competitive.

Literally Eastman was the only non-DCCC progressive Democrat who won in a swing district in 2018, and the DCCC literally bailed on her district the morning after the primary (only to reverse that like a month before election day and say "oops!"). Given every single race since its new incarnation in 2012 has been within 5 points there (and 3 of the 4 have been within 2 points) and the general election was 6 months away at the time, it's hard to argue this was done for any reason other than disdain at having another loud-mouthed progressive in the mix ruining the party. Every congressional race is going to be decided by low single-digits here.

[Pollster]

The DCCC's hatred for Eastman is hilarious. With this poll they're basically saying "if she wins, it's because of Biden."

Um... are you implying the DCCC outright made up the results of this poll to make Eastman look bad and/or Biden look good?

K.

You ever consider that maybe, just maybe, Biden actually is doing better in this district than Eastman as the poll shows? Would that REALLY be so hard to believe when Eastman already blew this election in a blue wave year in 2018, losing along with every single other Justice Democrat nominee?

No. I simply noted that the DCCC's hatred (maybe the wrong word, let's go instead with clear apathy) for Eastman is hilarious, and that they're using this poll to send the message that she's a weak general election candidate who, if she wins, will probably do so on Biden's coattails. If I had to guess, they're setting themselves up to triage her again even though all signs point to the race being winnable.

The poll itself actually doesn't even make Eastman look that weak, it just makes Bacon look strong. There's a big obsession with margins in polling even though vote share matters significantly more - Eastman is within the MOE of Biden whereas Bacon is outperforming Trump by a statistically significant margin.

Also I'm no fan of Justice Dem candidates (they generally suck at both comms and turnout) but blaming Eastman for her loss in 2018 is dishonest at best. Among Bacon, Eastman, the NRCC, and the DCCC, only one of those four acted as though the race wasn't competitive.

Literally Eastman was the only non-DCCC progressive Democrat who won in a swing district in 2018, and the DCCC literally bailed on her district the morning after the primary (only to reverse that like a month before election day and say "oops!"). Given every single race since its new incarnation in 2012 has been within 5 points there (and 3 of the 4 have been within 2 points) and the general election was 6 months away at the time, it's hard to argue this was done for any reason other than disdain at having another loud-mouthed progressive in the mix ruining the party. Every congressional race is going to be decided by low single-digits here.

Did they even reverse that decision? I recall the last minute buy in the Omaha DMA being used to run ads for Axne.

[Adam Griffin]

The DCCC's hatred for Eastman is hilarious. With this poll they're basically saying "if she wins, it's because of Biden."

Um... are you implying the DCCC outright made up the results of this poll to make Eastman look bad and/or Biden look good?

K.

You ever consider that maybe, just maybe, Biden actually is doing better in this district than Eastman as the poll shows? Would that REALLY be so hard to believe when Eastman already blew this election in a blue wave year in 2018, losing along with every single other Justice Democrat nominee?

No. I simply noted that the DCCC's hatred (maybe the wrong word, let's go instead with clear apathy) for Eastman is hilarious, and that they're using this poll to send the message that she's a weak general election candidate who, if she wins, will probably do so on Biden's coattails. If I had to guess, they're setting themselves up to triage her again even though all signs point to the race being winnable.

The poll itself actually doesn't even make Eastman look that weak, it just makes Bacon look strong. There's a big obsession with margins in polling even though vote share matters significantly more - Eastman is within the MOE of Biden whereas Bacon is outperforming Trump by a statistically significant margin.

Also I'm no fan of Justice Dem candidates (they generally suck at both comms and turnout) but blaming Eastman for her loss in 2018 is dishonest at best. Among Bacon, Eastman, the NRCC, and the DCCC, only one of those four acted as though the race wasn't competitive.

Literally Eastman was the only non-DCCC progressive Democrat who won in a swing district in 2018, and the DCCC literally bailed on her district the morning after the primary (only to reverse that like a month before election day and say "oops!"). Given every single race since its new incarnation in 2012 has been within 5 points there (and 3 of the 4 have been within 2 points) and the general election was 6 months away at the time, it's hard to argue this was done for any reason other than disdain at having another loud-mouthed progressive in the mix ruining the party. Every congressional race is going to be decided by low single-digits here.

Did they even reverse that decision? I recall the last minute buy in the Omaha DMA being used to run ads for Axne.

Yeah, I might have mixed that up with some of their allied groups coming in to spend money in the final month (which they too spent...then pulled...then started spending again like a week before election day).

[DaleCooper]

Sarpy county tends to vote about as Republican as the state at large in recent presidential elections and much more Republican than Douglas county votes Democrat (when it does), but Douglas county has about 400,000 more people in it than Sarpy and can sway the district on its own, especially if mobilized like in 2008. If Biden gets a majority of votes in Douglas county, he's the heavy favorite to win the district unless a massive, completely unrealistic swing towards Trump occurs in Sarpy county.

This is somewhat unrelated, but how do you think Douglas and Lancaster Counties will vote in this year's Senatorial race? I would imagine that Ben Sasse will, thanks to polarization, do several points worse this year than in 2014. I know that in 2018, the opponents of both Fischer and Ricketts carried the two counties with majorities.

I suspect that Sasse will lose both counties, but it's a bit tough to say. Nebraska has rarely been competitive in presidential elections, but I'm still not used to these lopsided Republican victories in the Senate, which is a relatively new phenomenon here. I'm suspecting that this year's Democratic candidate, Chris Janicek, will win them even though he's much less identifiable to voters in either county than Raybould (2018 Senate) and Krist (2018 Gov) were. Although I'd say Sasse has a better shot at either than Fischer did since he's facing a much less known candidate and he has crafted a bit of an anti-Trump Republican persona for himself, but after Kavanaugh and impeachment, coupled with sheer polarization, I don't think many Biden voters will buy that enough to ticket split, and Biden is sure to win both counties.