NE-02 D Internal- Biden +11, Eastman +1

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1260393335254142976

Biden 52
Trump 41

Eastman 48
Bacon 47

[DaleCooper]

These poll numbers don't surprise me at all. Biden is a perfect fit for this district. Eastman is not, but Republicanism is becoming increasingly toxic to voters in Omaha so that may be enough for her to win.

[Devils30]

NE-2 and ME-2 are going to cancel each other out.

[Bidenworth2020]

These poll numbers don't surprise me at all. Biden is a perfect fit for this district. Eastman is not, but Republicanism is becoming increasingly toxic to voters in Omaha so that may be enough for her to win.

I am honestly not sure what to make of these numbers. Is it indicative of Eastman's weakness, and is Biden actually favored in this district?

[Pericles]

Wow that Biden lead and the gap between him and Eastman are both shocking. Not that I'd be surprised if Biden won it, but by double digits is insane.

[Gracile]

The Biden campaign and the DCCC would be stupid to pass this district up.

[DaleCooper]

These poll numbers don't surprise me at all. Biden is a perfect fit for this district. Eastman is not, but Republicanism is becoming increasingly toxic to voters in Omaha so that may be enough for her to win.

I am honestly not sure what to make of these numbers. Is it indicative of Eastman's weakness, and is Biden actually favored in this district?

I would say Biden is favored. However, to be fair to Eastman, I think that this polling may indicate more of a unique Trump weakness than it does a Biden strength.

[ajc0918]

If Biden wins NE-02 and ME-02 then he only needs to win Michigan and Pennsylvania in order to reach 270 electoral votes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Biden wins NE-02 and ME-02 then he only needs to win Michigan and Pennsylvania in order to reach 270 electoral votes.

True but not realistic as a path to a bare win. Several other states are likely to flip before ME-02.

[Devils30]

The Maine legislature could change the electoral vote rules in an instant

[Podgy the Bear]

If Biden wins NE-02 and ME-02 then he only needs to win Michigan and Pennsylvania in order to reach 270 electoral votes.

It will be tough for Biden to make up a 10 point deficit in ME-02.  I can't begin to think how the country will react with a likely/significant Biden PV lead and a 269-269 EV tie.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Biden will win this area. Eastman will not.

[Panda Express]

Unfortunately for Dems, the Republican here probably has the strongest "name" out of all the congresscritters.

I know someone who voted Hillary/Bacon in 2016

When I asked why, the reason I got was "because bacon is delicious haha"

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Unfortunately for Dems, the Republican here probably has the strongest "name" out of all the congresscritters.

I know someone who voted Hillary/Bacon in 2016

When I asked why, the reason I got was "because bacon is delicious haha"

I believe it.

[Alben Barkley]

If Biden wins NE-02 and ME-02 then he only needs to win Michigan and Pennsylvania in order to reach 270 electoral votes.

It will be tough for Biden to make up a 10 point deficit in ME-02.  I can't begin to think how the country will react with a likely/significant Biden PV lead and a 269-269 EV tie.

Trump already swung it from +10 D to +10 R between 2012 and 2016. It could flip again, especially considering that ranked choice is now a factor that already gave the Democrats the seat in 2018. If Trump is really as unpopular in Maine as polling suggests, it could happen. Although granted if it does, Biden has probably already won the election and the NPV by a decent margin. It's unlikely that ME-02 flips before Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. But I could maybe see it flipping before Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, or Texas. Although the former two at least would probably be very close, because if Biden is winning ME-02, that's probably a sign that Trump's gains in WWC support from 2012 to 2016 have effectively reversed. Which would mean an electoral collapse for him.

The scenario in which the ME-02 delegate is the deciding factor is very unlikely, to say the least. But still the existence of these competitive districts in NE and ME gives me anxiety because they do increase the likelihood of a 269-269 tie, or even Trump winning with exactly 270 votes. These would be nightmare scenarios.

[Sir Mohamed]

NE-2 is more likely to flip than ME-2, but I think this poll is an outlier. If the election was held today, I think Biden would win with 334 EVs. 2016 + MI, WI, PA, FL, AZ, NC and NE-2.

[brucejoel99]

Good. In a close election, winning this 1 vote could be the difference between winning & losing.

[ProudModerate2]

I knew it!
I kept pointing to how Biden will win NE-02 (with the numbers we are seeing at this time).
But I didnt see that big of a lead in this district. That's huge.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good. In a close election, winning this 1 vote could be the difference between winning & losing.

I think if Biden takes NE-2, he has already won the election.

[Pollster]

The DCCC's hatred for Eastman is hilarious. With this poll they're basically saying "if she wins, it's because of Biden."

[Former President tack50]

If Biden wins NE-02 and ME-02 then he only needs to win Michigan and Pennsylvania in order to reach 270 electoral votes.

It will be tough for Biden to make up a 10 point deficit in ME-02.  I can't begin to think how the country will react with a likely/significant Biden PV lead and a 269-269 EV tie.

For an even better chaos scenario, add on top of that Dems somehow flipping one more state delegation, meaning that the House ends up deadlocked and can't pick a president (otherwise a tie = automatic Trump win).

For even more chaos, imagine a 50-50 Senate on top of that so the Senate can't pick a vicepresident.

That would end up with uh, president Pelosi? It would be nice for the first woman president to be picked that way 

[pbrower2a]

I knew it!
I kept pointing to how Biden will win NE-02 (with the numbers we are seeing at this time).
But I didnt see that big of a lead in this district. That's huge.

This is an urban district. Omaha is much more like Denver or Chicago than like the farm-and-ranch country of central and western Nebraska. This may say more about Iowa than about Nebraska, as Iowa has urban areas that can swing hard against Trump.

[Alben Barkley]

Good. In a close election, winning this 1 vote could be the difference between winning & losing.

I think if Biden takes NE-2, he has already won the election.

Not necessarily. Suburban areas are turning on Trump in a big way. And NE-02 was already closer than any state Trump won except MI, PA, WI, and FL. It's theoretically possible that the continued suburban trends against Trump are enough to deliver Biden this district but not the rust belt, or at least not all of it. Unlikely, but possible.

[Alben Barkley]

The DCCC's hatred for Eastman is hilarious. With this poll they're basically saying "if she wins, it's because of Biden."

Um... are you implying the DCCC outright made up the results of this poll to make Eastman look bad and/or Biden look good?

K.

You ever consider that maybe, just maybe, Biden actually is doing better in this district than Eastman as the poll shows? Would that REALLY be so hard to believe when Eastman already blew this election in a blue wave year in 2018, losing along with every single other Justice Democrat nominee?

[Pollster]

The DCCC's hatred for Eastman is hilarious. With this poll they're basically saying "if she wins, it's because of Biden."

Um... are you implying the DCCC outright made up the results of this poll to make Eastman look bad and/or Biden look good?

K.

You ever consider that maybe, just maybe, Biden actually is doing better in this district than Eastman as the poll shows? Would that REALLY be so hard to believe when Eastman already blew this election in a blue wave year in 2018, losing along with every single other Justice Democrat nominee?

No. I simply noted that the DCCC's hatred (maybe the wrong word, let's go instead with clear apathy) for Eastman is hilarious, and that they're using this poll to send the message that she's a weak general election candidate who, if she wins, will probably do so on Biden's coattails. If I had to guess, they're setting themselves up to triage her again even though all signs point to the race being winnable.

The poll itself actually doesn't even make Eastman look that weak, it just makes Bacon look strong. There's a big obsession with margins in polling even though vote share matters significantly more - Eastman is within the MOE of Biden whereas Bacon is outperforming Trump by a statistically significant margin.

Also I'm no fan of Justice Dem candidates (they generally suck at both comms and turnout) but blaming Eastman for her loss in 2018 is dishonest at best. Among Bacon, Eastman, the NRCC, and the DCCC, only one of those four acted as though the race wasn't competitive.