If Trump loses, does the GOP finally take the autopsy report to heart?

[Lechasseur]

Probably not. They will conclude that they need a new Trump who isn't Trump. Ted Cruz could have been that person. Maybe he will. Maybe Cotton, Hawley, or some other archconservative with a cowboy name and an elite education will come to the rescue. They just need someone whom the lords will be comfortable with and the serfs will turn out for.

Also, until the GOP decide to seriously move to the left on issues like healthcare and climate change, Trumpism without Trump is their only viable option.

Anything else would fail badly.

[Inmate Trump]

They'll just find another loudmouth who can only insult rather than form a coherent message.

They have no real collective policies anymore; it's only about owning libs...that is their one shared goal and everything else is secondary.

Don Jr. is my guess.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The problem with the autopsy report was it identified the symptoms but didn't identify the cause. The reason the Republicans are needing to campaign so hard right on cultural and social issues is because of the fact their positions on issues like Healthcare, Infrastructure are unpopular with the base.

If they moderated on Healthcare they would have more appeal across the board 

Exactly.

That's what I've been saying for a while too.

That needs to be the first thing the GOP moves left on.

If anything they'll do worse than before if they try following the GOP's 2013 autopsy report.

One reason I supported Kasich was the fact he actually was one of the republicans who had moderates on healthcare.

Problem was the establishment hated Kasich for moderating on the issue and the base viewed it as a surrender to Obama .

[Lechasseur]

The problem with the autopsy report was it identified the symptoms but didn't identify the cause. The reason the Republicans are needing to campaign so hard right on cultural and social issues is because of the fact their positions on issues like Healthcare, Infrastructure are unpopular with the base.

If they moderated on Healthcare they would have more appeal across the board 

Exactly.

That's what I've been saying for a while too.

That needs to be the first thing the GOP moves left on.

If anything they'll do worse than before if they try following the GOP's 2013 autopsy report.

One reason I supported Kasich was the fact he actually was one of the republicans who had moderates on healthcare.

Problem was the establishment hated Kasich for moderating on the issue and the base viewed it as a surrender to Obama .

Yeah he was the only establishment figure who ran in 2016 who "got it". He was the only worthwhile one.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think there is much of a constituency left in the GOP for the 2012 "autopsy" report.  Most of the people that document catered to have left the party.  Some outright became Dems. 

I think you get 1 of 2 outcomes for the future GOP:

1. Hardcore populist and isolationist, with an anti-Enlightenment authoritarian streak and an unapologetic embrace of big government domestically, often with the goal of promoting family values.  Think of Trump's earliest backers and the populist right governments of Eastern Europe.  Trump himself flirted with this approach for much of 2017 then backed off.

2. Noncommital but vaguely pro-universal healthcare and public education and pretty hardline on trade/immigration, but otherwise pro-business with a continued libertarian streak that accommodates e.g. Obergefell and criminal justice reform.  Notably more isolationist than the Bush era, but pro-military bluster.  Trump has been drifting this way since late 2017 and seems committed to it at this point.  The GOP establishment will blame his populism and inconsistency for the loss.   

The major Trump era takeaway is that business interests were less worried about free trade and therefore less willing to switch sides than everyone assumed in 2016.  I expect things would have to be really bad both economy wis and health wise straight through to 2024 for the GOP to commit to #1. 

[QAnonKelly]

The problem with the autopsy report was it identified the symptoms but didn't identify the cause. The reason the Republicans are needing to campaign so hard right on cultural and social issues is because of the fact their positions on issues like Healthcare, Infrastructure are unpopular with the base.

If they moderated on Healthcare they would have more appeal across the board 

Exactly.

That's what I've been saying for a while too.

That needs to be the first thing the GOP moves left on.

If anything they'll do worse than before if they try following the GOP's 2013 autopsy report.

One reason I supported Kasich was the fact he actually was one of the republicans who had moderates on healthcare.

Problem was the establishment hated Kasich for moderating on the issue and the base viewed it as a surrender to Obama .

Nixon not being able to get his healthcare plan over the finish line is one of the worst things to happen to the GOP politically in the recent past. All that leverage could have been taken off the board 50 years ago.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The problem with the autopsy report was it identified the symptoms but didn't identify the cause. The reason the Republicans are needing to campaign so hard right on cultural and social issues is because of the fact their positions on issues like Healthcare, Infrastructure are unpopular with the base.

If they moderated on Healthcare they would have more appeal across the board 

Exactly.

That's what I've been saying for a while too.

That needs to be the first thing the GOP moves left on.

If anything they'll do worse than before if they try following the GOP's 2013 autopsy report.

One reason I supported Kasich was the fact he actually was one of the republicans who had moderates on healthcare.

Problem was the establishment hated Kasich for moderating on the issue and the base viewed it as a surrender to Obama .

Nixon not being able to get his healthcare plan over the finish line is one of the worst things to happen to the GOP politically in the recent past. All that leverage could have been taken off the board 50 years ago.

Trump also could have just not gone for healthcare reform .


He could have done these 2 things instead :


- Infrastructure Deal which he promised and 50 billion dollars out of the 1 trillion infrastructure package he promised goes to the Wall. It’s partially paid for by withdrawing from Afghanistan

- Immigration: Strictly go after businesses who hire illegal immigrants and punish their employers as well


If he had done this he could actually claim he secured the borders and got an infrastructure package signed which builds up our infrastructure instead of nation building elsewhere

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Trump also could have just not gone for healthcare reform .


He could have done these 2 things instead :


- Infrastructure Deal which he promised and 50 billion dollars out of the 1 trillion infrastructure package he promised goes to the Wall. It’s partially paid for by withdrawing from Afghanistan

- Immigration: Strictly go after businesses who hire illegal immigrants and punish their employers as well


If he had done this he could actually claim he secured the borders and got an infrastructure package signed which builds up our infrastructure instead of nation building elsewhere

Yeah, if only...

Paul Ryan convinced him to spend all of his political capital on the skinny repeal (which was unpopular) and Tax reform (slightly more popular, but that betrayed his populist message).  If he spent his first year on infrastructure, as Steve Bannon originally intended he would have had a large accomplishment with bi-partisan support, thus increasing his approval rating and reelection prospects.

[QAnonKelly]

The problem with the autopsy report was it identified the symptoms but didn't identify the cause. The reason the Republicans are needing to campaign so hard right on cultural and social issues is because of the fact their positions on issues like Healthcare, Infrastructure are unpopular with the base.

If they moderated on Healthcare they would have more appeal across the board 

Exactly.

That's what I've been saying for a while too.

That needs to be the first thing the GOP moves left on.

If anything they'll do worse than before if they try following the GOP's 2013 autopsy report.

One reason I supported Kasich was the fact he actually was one of the republicans who had moderates on healthcare.

Problem was the establishment hated Kasich for moderating on the issue and the base viewed it as a surrender to Obama .

Nixon not being able to get his healthcare plan over the finish line is one of the worst things to happen to the GOP politically in the recent past. All that leverage could have been taken off the board 50 years ago.

Trump also could have just not gone for healthcare reform .


He could have done these 2 things instead :


- Infrastructure Deal which he promised and 50 billion dollars out of the 1 trillion infrastructure package he promised goes to the Wall. It’s partially paid for by withdrawing from Afghanistan

- Immigration: Strictly go after businesses who hire illegal immigrants and punish their employers as well


If he had done this he could actually claim he secured the borders and got an infrastructure package signed which builds up our infrastructure instead of nation building elsewhere

The Nixon plan is all Republicans could have asked for in a UHC plan too. Not whatever they think flies this day.

[Lechasseur]

Trump also could have just not gone for healthcare reform .


He could have done these 2 things instead :


- Infrastructure Deal which he promised and 50 billion dollars out of the 1 trillion infrastructure package he promised goes to the Wall. It’s partially paid for by withdrawing from Afghanistan

- Immigration: Strictly go after businesses who hire illegal immigrants and punish their employers as well


If he had done this he could actually claim he secured the borders and got an infrastructure package signed which builds up our infrastructure instead of nation building elsewhere

Yeah, if only...

Paul Ryan convinced him to spend all of his political capital on the skinny repeal (which was unpopular) and Tax reform (slightly more popular, but that betrayed his populist message).  If he spent his first year on infrastructure, as Steve Bannon originally intended he would have had a large accomplishment with bi-partisan support, thus increasing his approval rating and reelection prospects.

Well at the very least the Dems controlling the House means Paul Ryan is no longer Speaker.

That's one positive about 2018.

[Non Swing Voter]

What are they going to do though?  Their party is built on some cultural draw to a foregone time that seems better in their heads than it was IRL.  As long as the political dividing lines are on cultural issues like guns/abortion/religion/climate change they aren't going to take it to heart because they simply don't want to.  More likely they'll move away from these issues slowly, like how they've moved away from fighting gay marriage and a bunch of civil rights laws.  At that point the dividing line will probably go back to class/economic issues but will likely be less contentious.  More in line with European politics before nationalism took over.  This will probably take a few cycles though. 

[darklordoftech]

I find it interesting that the GOP followed their 1996 autopsy report in 2000, but didn’t follow their 2012 autopsy report in 2016.

[brucejoel99]

I find it interesting that the GOP followed their 1996 autopsy report in 2000, but didn’t follow their 2012 autopsy report in 2016.

And won anyway.

[dw93]

I find it interesting that the GOP followed their 1996 autopsy report in 2000, but didn’t follow their 2012 autopsy report in 2016.

Different circumstances. Losing seats in the House, having a wash in the Senate, and having their Speaker resign in disgrace in 1998 re enforced the need for them to change course for 2000 whereas gaining House seats and retaking the Senate in 2014 gave them an excuse to double down.

[Lechasseur]

The problem with the autopsy report was it identified the symptoms but didn't identify the cause. The reason the Republicans are needing to campaign so hard right on cultural and social issues is because of the fact their positions on issues like Healthcare, Infrastructure are unpopular with the base.

If they moderated on Healthcare they would have more appeal across the board  

Exactly.

That's what I've been saying for a while too.

That needs to be the first thing the GOP moves left on.

If anything they'll do worse than before if they try following the GOP's 2013 autopsy report.

One reason I supported Kasich was the fact he actually was one of the republicans who had moderates on healthcare.

Problem was the establishment hated Kasich for moderating on the issue and the base viewed it as a surrender to Obama .

Nixon not being able to get his healthcare plan over the finish line is one of the worst things to happen to the GOP politically in the recent past. All that leverage could have been taken off the board 50 years ago.

Yep

Had some sort of decent healthcare plan got passed by Nixon, the GOP would be far stronger today than they are IRL.

I think there are a lot of voters who are pretty conservative in temperament but vote Democratic who'd vote Republican if that and a couple of other things had been fixed earlier.

I actually think in a situation where healthcare reform got passed earlier IRL, I think the Democrats would have likely collapsed in the "heartland" earlier than they did IRL (in other words before the 2010s).

And the GOP would probably be stronger in the blue states today than they are IRL had that happened as well.

[Free Bird]

It wouldn't be because of the reasons prescribed in the autopsy, so no.

[lfromnj]

The autopsy was false anyway
Romney could have won Hispanic voters and still lost said election.

His problem was always WWC voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They still will think in 2022, 2024 and 2028, they still will have a fighting chase by blaming the Trump Recession on Biden, like I'm 2010. Back then, Boehner and Ryan were the House Leaders and they were dominant unlike Kevin McCarthy. Also, the Ds have control over redistricting since 1990.

[Former President tack50]

Yes, but to do the exact opposite in 2024 and win. Much like in 2016

[Elgato1978]

Sure they’ll take it seriously and that will explain the 2024 GOP ticket “ Palpatine/Vader’24: Return of the GOP”

[pbrower2a]

The GOP will not learn its lesson until it endures several landslide losses that transform it into a weak role of making the difference during rifts within the Democratic Party. Then, and only then, will it start finding younger pols who appear as challenges to corrupt machines or who get shut out of relevance within the Democratic Party.

[Agonized-Statism]

Soon. Having to win on reduced turnout from the opposition isn't a sign of a healthy political organization. A more pertinent question is which demographic they'll reach out to first.

[Flyersfan232]

We didn’t listen to 12 autopsy and we won in 16

[Frodo]

We didn’t listen to 12 autopsy and we won in 16

'We'

I remember you were quite a partisan Democrat when I started posting here.  What happened? 

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

No, because the 2012 autopsy report is a load of bull. It speaks of attempting to win over African Americans (A group so partisan that they backed segregationists like Stennis and Talmadge over generic R’s) and various Hispanic groups (Who for the most part are firmly left wing and integrated into Democratic voting machines). Neither of these groups were or are moving towards the GOP in the near future, and if the GOP wasted time targeting these groups instead of the Frostbelt in 2016, they would have lost.

The path forward for the GOP is clearly to keep winning over white Catholics and various mainline Protestants (which they have been increasingly doing) whilst retaining its margins amongst Evangelicals and Mormons. This will allow them to lock onto the Midwest and parts of the Northeast shielding them from losses in the sunbelt as a result of generational turnover and Hispanic migration.