If Trump loses, does the GOP finally take the autopsy report to heart?

[Roll Roons]

https://rollcall.com/2020/05/11/will-2020-be-the-year-the-rncs-autopsy-was-right/?fbclid=IwAR1M4H6b8SkJSuE3TWl8XVbDd2e1d78ZsSC6c2LCCrsvQ--xPFacLpbEeJY

In 2013, the RNC produced a postmortem which concluded that Republicans needed to improve with minorities and young people, and couldn't just rely on old rural whites forever. Obviously Trump completely disregarded this advice. But in the Trump era, once-safe Republican states like Arizona, Georgia and Texas have trended Democratic, and ones like California, Colorado and Virginia slip even further away from the GOP. Will they finally take heed of the report for 2024 and beyond if Trump loses?

[Chester County Anti-populist]

Hopefully. The question is how will they.

[Sol]

Why? They won by ignoring it in 2016.

[Person Man]

Probably not. They will conclude that they need a new Trump who isn't Trump. Ted Cruz could have been that person. Maybe he will. Maybe Cotton, Hawley, or some other archconservative with a cowboy name and an elite education will come to the rescue. They just need someone whom the lords will be comfortable with and the serfs will turn out for.

It might get harder if and when the SCOTUS finally is seen as completely throwing up their hands on race issues like voting rights and religious issues like abortion...or worse agreeing that the constitution guarantees Traditionalist and Nationalist policy outcomes. Doesn't Judge Amy believe that not only is there no constitutional right to an abortion but also that there is a constitutional for a fetus to not be aborted?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every R Prez have had administration officials jailed for being too close to Wallstreet. In order to be a winning party you have to stop corruption.  Since they favor tax give aways to the rich, it will be hard to do

Eisenhower, Taft and McKinley and Highes were the last Rs that didnt have corruption. Since Harding admin, who had Cooludge hire Jay Edgar Hoover as FBI direction, corruption has begun

[Grassroots]

Sorry RINO Tom, the party isn't going back to Bush politics. Populism is the future whether you like it or not,

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Sorry RINO Tom, the party isn't going back to Bush politics. Populism is the future whether you like it or not,

Perhaps a joke, but... that ain't RINO Tom.

[Grassroots]

Sorry RINO Tom, the party isn't going back to Bush politics. Populism is the future whether you like it or not,

Perhaps a joke, but... that ain't RINO Tom.

It's a joke because he always gets triggered by the trend of the party.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Sorry RINO Tom, the party isn't going back to Bush politics. Populism is the future whether you like it or not,

Perhaps a joke, but... that ain't RINO Tom.

It's a joke because he always gets triggered by the trend of the party.

Fascism is worth getting triggered about.

[indietraveler]

It's hard to say at this point - the Trump crowd is too big to ignore at this point and won't just "go away" anytime soon. Seems almost like a lose-lose and they really have no one to blame but themselves.

The stance the republican party has taken with minorities and younger voters won't be solved or come close to reversing in an election cycle (or even two or three). They could make a play to appeal to suburban voters but the stances they would have to take would turn off the Trumpers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

No. They have to be losing badly in the sunbelt (including TX) before it sinks in that something close to their current strategy is impossible, and even then, it's likely they'll waste at least one cycle with a candidate who sticks to the old strategies but lives in the sunbelt and can benefit from a home state boost (this would probably mean another Texan nominee, although Cruz is currently a somewhat uncomfortable fit for populists in a Republican primary).

[Storr]

Why? They won by ignoring it in 2016.

This.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

No. They have to be losing badly in the sunbelt (including TX) before it sinks in that something close to their current strategy is impossible, and even then, it's likely they'll waste at least one cycle with a candidate who sticks to the old strategies but lives in the sunbelt and can benefit from a home state boost (this would probably mean another Texan nominee, although Cruz is currently a somewhat uncomfortable fit for populists in a Republican primary).

Cruz's contentious and divisive 2016 bid, his close shave (no pun intended) in 2018, his tea party fiscal policies, and goofy-ass howdy doody "I'm a Texan yee haw" persona make him a below average choice for the GOP going forward. 

Ron DeSantis, Hawley, Cotton, or Crenshaw (if you want a Texan that conservatives like) are much better choices going forward.

[President Johnson]

They may do an autopsy that finds the reasons for a 2020 loss (similar ones to 2013), but the Republican base in all likelyhood won't care. A majority didn't care in 2016, when they put up a Manhattan reality TV star who ran on anti-immigrant sentiment. I wouldn't be surprised if their 2024 nominee is another nut job instead of a Romney-style figure.

[QAnonKelly]

I mean the GOP itself more or less tried to do what the autopsy suggested, it was the voters who ignored it.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Sorry RINO Tom, the party isn't going back to Bush politics. Populism is the future whether you like it or not,

You are going to give him a heart attack. Can't we just pretend that at the 2020 RNC there is a anti Trump coup and a Jeb!/Kasich ticket is installed. They go on to win a 10 point 40 state landslide in the general election.

[Frodo]

It will take more than one loss to convince them that Trumpism is a dead-end.  Republicans only regained the White House in 1952, and that only happened when they finally accepted that the New Deal was here to stay.  That plus voter fatigue after twenty years of Democratic control of the Oval Office. 

[Grassroots]

Sorry RINO Tom, the party isn't going back to Bush politics. Populism is the future whether you like it or not,

You are going to give him a heart attack. Can't we just pretend that at the 2020 RNC there is a anti Trump coup and a Jeb!/Kasich ticket is installed. They go on to win a 10 point 40 state landslide in the general election.

Jeb/Kasich couldn't win in a landslide. Hawley/DeSantis could though.

[Orwell]

It will take more than one loss to convince them that Trumpism is a dead-end.  Republicans only regained the White House in 1952, and that only happened when they finally accepted that the New Deal was here to stay.  That plus voter fatigue after twenty years of Democratic control of the Oval Office. 

Technically it was 19 years and 10 months and 17 days of Democratic rule

[Nyvin]

I'm convinced the only way the Republican Party moves forward is with the death of the Silent generation and a significantly declined influence of Baby Boomers.

Until then the Republican Primary will keep them chained to their current coalition.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I think this depends on Biden midterms. There's a pretty predictable cyclical nature to the last 20 years of elections. Republicans found a way to ramp this up to an unprecedented level in 2009-2010 and if that playbook continues to work, then they'll have more incentive to ignore the autopsy than to heed it.

Key question here is if the realignment which shifted so many reliable college-educated voters from D to R means the cyclical patterns will hold. If these typically high-propensity voters stick with Biden in a midterm year then it will be worth Republican's while to shift back to courting these voters rather than relying on the spotty 'no true conservative" WWC voter that Trump turned out.

A massively underrated aspect of post-Trump politics is how the Republican party will be shaped after becoming the party of Trump. Trump was attractive in large part because of his perceived authenticity and his personality. It's a massive reason why he turned out voters who previously ignored Romney, McCain, and down ballot candidates. If the GOP has wrapped its entire electoral and political strategy around the personality of Trump, and he's no longer on the ballot, then the 2012 autopsy will likely be obsolete and they'll have to write a new one.

[Pericles]

It'll llikely take at least one more and likely two more consecutive presidential election defeats.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The problem with the autopsy report was it identified the symptoms but didn't identify the cause. The reason the Republicans are needing to campaign so hard right on cultural and social issues is because of the fact their positions on issues like Healthcare, Infrastructure are unpopular with the base.

If they moderated on Healthcare they would have more appeal across the board 

[Lechasseur]

No. They have to be losing badly in the sunbelt (including TX) before it sinks in that something close to their current strategy is impossible, and even then, it's likely they'll waste at least one cycle with a candidate who sticks to the old strategies but lives in the sunbelt and can benefit from a home state boost (this would probably mean another Texan nominee, although Cruz is currently a somewhat uncomfortable fit for populists in a Republican primary).

Cruz's contentious and divisive 2016 bid, his close shave (no pun intended) in 2018, his tea party fiscal policies, and goofy-ass howdy doody "I'm a Texan yee haw" persona make him a below average choice for the GOP going forward. 

Ron DeSantis, Hawley, Cotton, or Crenshaw (if you want a Texan that conservatives like) are much better choices going forward.

Agreed. DeSantis, Hawley, Cotton and Crenshaw would all be better GOP presidential nominees than Cruz.

[Lechasseur]

The problem with the autopsy report was it identified the symptoms but didn't identify the cause. The reason the Republicans are needing to campaign so hard right on cultural and social issues is because of the fact their positions on issues like Healthcare, Infrastructure are unpopular with the base.

If they moderated on Healthcare they would have more appeal across the board 

Exactly.

That's what I've been saying for a while too.

That needs to be the first thing the GOP moves left on.

If anything they'll do worse than before if they try following the GOP's 2013 autopsy report.