2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[lfromnj]

My competitive compromise map:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::53730fae-ea0a-4aa4-9059-ea81b3d83f79

Can't view it but your name is an oxymoron, no compromise map will have any competitive districts, unless if its just WI 3 to a degree.

You can make WI-01 competitive easily by taking in South Milwaukee (and indeed it'd even be a tilt/lean D district). Not sure if a compromise or bipartisan map would do that, but it is a possibility.

Anyways here is a quick, mostly fair map with 2 competitive districts. I will recognize this is probably one of the more Dem-friendly configurations that can still be defended that are not gerrymanders. Basically a 4R-2D-2S map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/762f66fe-91cb-43ea-bb0b-7e6f8ebcb614



WI-01: Clinton+2, Evers+3, D+1
WI-02: Clinton+49, Evers+44, D+18
WI-03: Trump+3, Evers+4, D+1
WI-04: Clinton+38, Evers+34, D+17 (49% white, 35% black, 10% hispanic)
WI-05: Trump+28, Walker+33, R+16
WI-06: Trump+17, Walker+15, R+7
WI-07: Trump+19, Walker+14, R+7
WI-08: Trump+17, Walker+14, R+6

I suppose competitive districts are not in either party's favour though and both Republicans and Democrats would prefer a fixed 5R-3D map instead?

I said a compromise map, a court might draw your map but if somehow Evers and the Wi gop agrees to compromise they would focus on shoring up wisconsin 1 and 3

[Sol]

I don't think a fair map or a compromise map splits Milwaukee.

[lfromnj]

I don't think a fair map or a compromise map splits Milwaukee.

Yeah my bad I assumed he meant the county of Milwaukee.

[Former President tack50]

In fairness, even if you only split the county of Milwaukee (but not the city itself) the 1st district still (narrowly) remains a swing district, albeit now one that is more like Lean R (Both Trump and Walker win by around 4.5 points)

This does mean that the 4th district goes from 49 to 43% white (and up to 36% black).

[lfromnj]

Yes of course, WI 1st should be somewhere around Trump +4 to Trump +1 while WI 3 would be around Trump +5 to 6 in a FAIR MAP.

Now a compromise map would shove WI 1st to safe R at trump +10 but perhaps move WI 3 to like Trump +2 or something.

[Idaho Conservative]

6-2 map.
1. Trump+13
2.  Clinton+38
3.  Trump+13
4.  Clinton+52
5.  Trump+20
6.  Trump+15
7.  Trump+15
8.  Trump+17
Walker wins the 6 Trump districts too.  Vukmir wins 4. 
All Republican incumbents should be safe, and Rep Kind is not necessarily DOA, he overperforms by a lot, but a serious challenge in just a neutral year could be enough to defeat him.  After all, Walker won his district by 8 on this map.  Baldwin only won it by 5. 

[walleye26]

Thoughts on this competitive map? https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::39f05f2d-60ff-401a-8c49-58f53d04795a

[Sol]

Thoughts on this competitive map? https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::39f05f2d-60ff-401a-8c49-58f53d04795a

Map not available.

[walleye26]

Thoughts on this competitive map? https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::39f05f2d-60ff-401a-8c49-58f53d04795a

Map not available.

Is there a reason? Do I have to turn on a setting or something?

[Badger]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

[lfromnj]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

[Gass3268]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Yeah, something like this would be better:

[lfromnj]

For what a Democrat gerrymander? lol

[Badger]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Care to elaborate?

[Badger]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Yeah, something like this would be better:

I like it in theory, but those blue and yellow districts appear seriously underpopulated.

EDIT: one could perhaps balance out the blue District somewhat my taking in more of South Milwaukee as the orange District appears somewhat overpopulated, but it appears that the district would probably have to take in most if not all of Walworth County to even out.

[lfromnj]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Care to elaborate?

Ik they are close together and have relatively similar Demographics but they are different metroes (just keep WOW with WOW and Dane with some of its closer counties).

[Badger]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Care to elaborate?

Ik they are close together and have relatively similar Demographics but they are different metroes (just keep WOW with WOW and Dane with some of its closer counties).

Like you said, they are geographically close and similar demographics. I don't see much more distinction between combining Dane with Waukesha County than Waukesha being stuffed in along with South Milwaukee County plus Racine and Kenosha Counties as is currently the case. I mean, honestly, I don't see much distinction between what Kesha being combined with Janesville like it currently is versus being combined with Madison.

Or if communities of Interest are really that big a thing to you, why don't we just compress the wow counties into a single District, or as close thereto as their population allows?

[lfromnj]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Care to elaborate?

Ik they are close together and have relatively similar Demographics but they are different metroes (just keep WOW with WOW and Dane with some of its closer counties).

Like you said, they are geographically close and similar demographics. I don't see much more distinction between combining Dane with Waukesha County than Waukesha being stuffed in along with South Milwaukee County plus Racine and Kenosha Counties as is currently the case. I mean, honestly, I don't see much distinction between what Kesha being combined with Janesville like it currently is versus being combined with Madison.

Or if communities of Interest are really that big a thing to you, why don't we just compress the wow counties into a single District, or as close thereto as their population allows?

I literally said compress WOW Into one district lol.

[lfromnj]

Here we go for South Wisconsin. The small 3rd chop of Milwaukee is only 1k people btw and not a partisan decision, just felt River hills fits better in the suburban district, if you all really want to start an argument then we can move it back in Milwaukee county. Either is fine.

[Gass3268]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Yeah, something like this would be better:

I like it in theory, but those blue and yellow districts appear seriously underpopulated.

EDIT: one could perhaps balance out the blue District somewhat my taking in more of South Milwaukee as the orange District appears somewhat overpopulated, but it appears that the district would probably have to take in most if not all of Walworth County to even out.

Just ignore the SE districts, I mainly wanted to show what you could do with WI-02 and then in return WI-03.

[Badger]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Care to elaborate?

Ik they are close together and have relatively similar Demographics but they are different metroes (just keep WOW with WOW and Dane with some of its closer counties).

Like you said, they are geographically close and similar demographics. I don't see much more distinction between combining Dane with Waukesha County than Waukesha being stuffed in along with South Milwaukee County plus Racine and Kenosha Counties as is currently the case. I mean, honestly, I don't see much distinction between what Kesha being combined with Janesville like it currently is versus being combined with Madison.

Or if communities of Interest are really that big a thing to you, why don't we just compress the wow counties into a single District, or as close thereto as their population allows?

I literally said compress WOW Into one district lol.

You didn't expressly mentioned compressing them into one District rather than keeping them generally together, but close enough I should have gathered the meeting I guess.

My point being is that I believe any Wisconsin Republican would fight. Turning the wow counties into a single Republican vote sink tooth-and-nail. Taking Waukehsa out of the 1st District turns it decidedly more purple almost regardless of which territories picked up to compensate for the population loss. The district could even go downright light red if that population is picked up from Milwaukee County.

[lfromnj]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Care to elaborate?

Ik they are close together and have relatively similar Demographics but they are different metroes (just keep WOW with WOW and Dane with some of its closer counties).

Like you said, they are geographically close and similar demographics. I don't see much more distinction between combining Dane with Waukesha County than Waukesha being stuffed in along with South Milwaukee County plus Racine and Kenosha Counties as is currently the case. I mean, honestly, I don't see much distinction between what Kesha being combined with Janesville like it currently is versus being combined with Madison.

Or if communities of Interest are really that big a thing to you, why don't we just compress the wow counties into a single District, or as close thereto as their population allows?

I literally said compress WOW Into one district lol.

You didn't expressly mentioned compressing them into one District rather than keeping them generally together, but close enough I should have gathered the meeting I guess.

My point being is that I believe any Wisconsin Republican would fight. Turning the wow counties into a single Republican vote sink tooth-and-nail. Taking Waukehsa out of the 1st District turns it decidedly more purple almost regardless of which territories picked up to compensate for the population loss. The district could even go downright light red if that population is picked up from Milwaukee County.

Well yes my map is Trump +4.5 there. And only split one city in Milwaukee county.

[Badger]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Yeah, something like this would be better:

I like it in theory, but those blue and yellow districts appear seriously underpopulated.

EDIT: one could perhaps balance out the blue District somewhat my taking in more of South Milwaukee as the orange District appears somewhat overpopulated, but it appears that the district would probably have to take in most if not all of Walworth County to even out.

Got it. That leg reaching up to Eau Claire is kind of ugly, but I can't say I object.

[Storr]

My general thoughts on Wisconsin redistricting:

1. Milwaukee County should only be split once (as it necessarily must due to having a population greater than 750k). Being split among four districts like it is currently, is ridiculous.

2. I like the general setup Wisconsin has had since at least the 70s of a Milwaukee seat (formerly two),  Janesville-Racine district, Madison district, Driftless district, Northwest district, Green Bay District, WOW district, and a Mid-Wisconsin District.

3. If Wisconsin loses a seat due to the census, I'm guessing the one cut would be the 5th (Driftless) or the 7th (Northwest) since they are the most rural and easily divvied among the rest.

[I’m not Stu]

Doesn’t Wisconsin likely get 7?