2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[lfromnj]

Couldn’t Evers just veto the repeal of the veto?  Republicans don’t have two thirds majorities needed to override his veto.

There is a legit fear that the Republicans in the state legislature would attempt to do redistricting via a legislative resolution that does not require the veto of the governor. They tried this before in I think the 60's but it was struck down by the Supreme Court. Hagedorn has appeared to be fairly reasonable since joining the court last year, so maybe all hope isn't lost.

Hagedorn so far is a solid conservative yet not a power grabber. This is a problem for the legislature if they try to do redistricting via a resolution. However, Hagedorn would probably be fine if legislative/executive deadlock punts the maps up to the supreme court for them to draw. The problem for the WI GOP then would be the fact that a R-favoring court map wouldn't carve up WI03 like they want, and maybe mess with other stuff like incumbents and their bases of support.

The main problem for the Wisconsin GOP wouldn't really be WI03 in a court map, it still moves to around Trump +6 to +7 unless we get a PA style map which is very unlikely but rather Wisconsin 1st which likely moves to around Trump +4 and probably voted for obama in 12 .

[lfromnj]

What if mid-decade redistricting is ordered by SCOWI if a GOP seat flips after 2022?

You mean after a previous court decision already makes a map?

Hmm I could see them being that Hackish and then splitting Dane but not Madison to make WI 3 lean D at a presidential level and push WI 1st to tossup, Also might even play around with the Fox River valley to make it Likely R.

[lfromnj]

My competitive compromise map:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::53730fae-ea0a-4aa4-9059-ea81b3d83f79

Can't view it but your name is an oxymoron, no compromise map will have any competitive districts, unless if its just WI 3 to a degree.

[lfromnj]

My competitive compromise map:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::53730fae-ea0a-4aa4-9059-ea81b3d83f79

Can't view it but your name is an oxymoron, no compromise map will have any competitive districts, unless if its just WI 3 to a degree.

You can make WI-01 competitive easily by taking in South Milwaukee (and indeed it'd even be a tilt/lean D district). Not sure if a compromise or bipartisan map would do that, but it is a possibility.

Anyways here is a quick, mostly fair map with 2 competitive districts. I will recognize this is probably one of the more Dem-friendly configurations that can still be defended that are not gerrymanders. Basically a 4R-2D-2S map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/762f66fe-91cb-43ea-bb0b-7e6f8ebcb614



WI-01: Clinton+2, Evers+3, D+1
WI-02: Clinton+49, Evers+44, D+18
WI-03: Trump+3, Evers+4, D+1
WI-04: Clinton+38, Evers+34, D+17 (49% white, 35% black, 10% hispanic)
WI-05: Trump+28, Walker+33, R+16
WI-06: Trump+17, Walker+15, R+7
WI-07: Trump+19, Walker+14, R+7
WI-08: Trump+17, Walker+14, R+6

I suppose competitive districts are not in either party's favour though and both Republicans and Democrats would prefer a fixed 5R-3D map instead?

I said a compromise map, a court might draw your map but if somehow Evers and the Wi gop agrees to compromise they would focus on shoring up wisconsin 1 and 3

[lfromnj]

I don't think a fair map or a compromise map splits Milwaukee.

Yeah my bad I assumed he meant the county of Milwaukee.

[lfromnj]

Yes of course, WI 1st should be somewhere around Trump +4 to Trump +1 while WI 3 would be around Trump +5 to 6 in a FAIR MAP.

Now a compromise map would shove WI 1st to safe R at trump +10 but perhaps move WI 3 to like Trump +2 or something.

[lfromnj]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

[lfromnj]

For what a Democrat gerrymander? lol

[lfromnj]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Care to elaborate?

Ik they are close together and have relatively similar Demographics but they are different metroes (just keep WOW with WOW and Dane with some of its closer counties).

[lfromnj]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Care to elaborate?

Ik they are close together and have relatively similar Demographics but they are different metroes (just keep WOW with WOW and Dane with some of its closer counties).

Like you said, they are geographically close and similar demographics. I don't see much more distinction between combining Dane with Waukesha County than Waukesha being stuffed in along with South Milwaukee County plus Racine and Kenosha Counties as is currently the case. I mean, honestly, I don't see much distinction between what Kesha being combined with Janesville like it currently is versus being combined with Madison.

Or if communities of Interest are really that big a thing to you, why don't we just compress the wow counties into a single District, or as close thereto as their population allows?

I literally said compress WOW Into one district lol.

[lfromnj]

Here we go for South Wisconsin. The small 3rd chop of Milwaukee is only 1k people btw and not a partisan decision, just felt River hills fits better in the suburban district, if you all really want to start an argument then we can move it back in Milwaukee county. Either is fine.

[lfromnj]

How permissible, or for that matter doable, would it be to combine Dane and Waukesha counties , of course including Jefferson as well? Those Three Counties would surely be well over the population of a single District, but County splits are apparently permissible. Just thinking out loud.

lol no.

Care to elaborate?

Ik they are close together and have relatively similar Demographics but they are different metroes (just keep WOW with WOW and Dane with some of its closer counties).

Like you said, they are geographically close and similar demographics. I don't see much more distinction between combining Dane with Waukesha County than Waukesha being stuffed in along with South Milwaukee County plus Racine and Kenosha Counties as is currently the case. I mean, honestly, I don't see much distinction between what Kesha being combined with Janesville like it currently is versus being combined with Madison.

Or if communities of Interest are really that big a thing to you, why don't we just compress the wow counties into a single District, or as close thereto as their population allows?

I literally said compress WOW Into one district lol.

You didn't expressly mentioned compressing them into one District rather than keeping them generally together, but close enough I should have gathered the meeting I guess.

My point being is that I believe any Wisconsin Republican would fight. Turning the wow counties into a single Republican vote sink tooth-and-nail. Taking Waukehsa out of the 1st District turns it decidedly more purple almost regardless of which territories picked up to compensate for the population loss. The district could even go downright light red if that population is picked up from Milwaukee County.

Well yes my map is Trump +4.5 there. And only split one city in Milwaukee county.

[lfromnj]

A non-partisan WI map.
The 5th is now all-WOW with it reaching ideal population by pulling in from Milwaukee County. The 4th moves south to accompany this. The 1st's border in Rock County is now defined by just two straight lines. The 3rd and 7th are both whole-county CDs rooted in rural Western and Northern WI respectively. The 6th is established as a Central WI district. No municipalities were split.

WI-01: R+1, 49-45 Trump, 50-48 Evers
WI-02: D+15, 63-31 Clinton, 67-31 Evers
WI-03: D+1, 48-45 Trump, 51-47 Evers
WI-04: D+23, 71-24 Clinton, 73-25 Evers
WI-05: R+14, 57-37 Trump, 63-36 Walker
WI-06: R+7, 56-38 Trump, 57-41 Walker
WI-07: R+7, 57-37 Trump, 56-42 Walker
WI-08: R+6, 54-40 Trump, 56-42 Walker

Hey our map is the same besides the 3 northern districts.  .

[lfromnj]

A non-partisan WI map.
The 5th is now all-WOW with it reaching ideal population by pulling in from Milwaukee County. The 4th moves south to accompany this. The 1st's border in Rock County is now defined by just two straight lines. The 3rd and 7th are both whole-county CDs rooted in rural Western and Northern WI respectively. The 6th is established as a Central WI district. No municipalities were split.

WI-01: R+1, 49-45 Trump, 50-48 Evers
WI-02: D+15, 63-31 Clinton, 67-31 Evers
WI-03: D+1, 48-45 Trump, 51-47 Evers
WI-04: D+23, 71-24 Clinton, 73-25 Evers
WI-05: R+14, 57-37 Trump, 63-36 Walker
WI-06: R+7, 56-38 Trump, 57-41 Walker
WI-07: R+7, 57-37 Trump, 56-42 Walker
WI-08: R+6, 54-40 Trump, 56-42 Walker

Hey our map is the same besides the 3 northern districts.  .

Which 3 northern districts? 6, 7, and 8?

Yeah , look a little bit earlier in my thread, we have the almost exact same split of Milwaukee county with Wauwatosha and the north shore going to WOW and the south suburbs going to Racine. Racine is the same etc.

[lfromnj]

Anyway, here's my fair map:

Why dont u split cinci like u split Milwaukee?
Come on that's a d gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

Anyway, here's my fair map:

Why dont u split cinci like u split Milwaukee?
Come on that's a d gerrymander.

You split Milwaukee County three ways. You either split the city once or the county twice. I chose the former. Mostly though, I just wanted to not pair the Rock River Valley with Racine and Kenosha. Besides, the 2nd district is only Clinton+4.

I can easily show a map which only splits it twice and keeps the city whole.

[lfromnj]

Takes a small 20k slice of SE waukesha. Much better. Its super easy to keep the city of Milwaukee whole and there isn't a major reason to oppose it except for a D gerrymander. If you want you can take 20k from Rock county instead.

There isn't even a VRA case considering the current Milwaukee district already performs fine.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/adbf7454-2f1f-4918-8985-a7d31af2a888
WI 7 seat map
(not that WI losing a seat is likely at all)

With  7 you can keep the Fox River valley whole, just have the  brown district eat up most of Winnebago and then the purple can take in Waupaca/Shawano/Menominee county. Then take some rural parts of Winnebago/Fond du lac and Outgamie for the purple district to finish it off.

[lfromnj]

I mean yes people choose to live in those suburbs because they don't want to live in Milwaukee?

[lfromnj]

If they didnt want to live in Cinci they can move somewhere else
See #fairmaps guys, I can do it too !.

[lfromnj]

If they didn't want to live near Oklahoma county they should have moved.

The point is you only make these weird decisions to bring suburbs to urban when it helps Democrats. I keep it consistent.

[lfromnj]

More #fair maps

You would never do a split like this where the urban area is only medium blue or even swing but the outer burbs are deep red.

[lfromnj]

There is on the ground difference, those suburban voters wanted to live in the suburban towns instead of Milwauke be it for some reason or another. Perhaps they wanted to live in affordable large houses, perhaps a district that was more school oriented etc. The point is that you will always splitting a metro into a way thats favorable towards Democrats but you won't do the other ways I showed that are effectively GOP gerrymanders. If NJ and NYC was one state no I wouldn't want to be combined with the upper east side, stop having extreme contempt for suburban people just because they want to have a different lifestyle.

[lfromnj]

People who choose to live somewhere because of school districts are irrelevant when it comes to 700-800k population districts, lmao. This whole argument is "muy estupido".

So I take it you are fine with the split of Cincinatti, Kansas city , OKC, and Nashville( 3 of which are probably happening in 2022)?

[lfromnj]

People who choose to live somewhere because of school districts are irrelevant when it comes to 700-800k population districts, lmao. This whole argument is "muy estupido".

You literally argued for some connections based on where people go shopping lmao.