2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Tekken_Guy]

What a wonderful map this would be -

https://twitter.com/BobbyBigWheel/status/1451182214075531264

I think Bryan Steil could hold onto that WI-01 as long as he wants.

[Tekken_Guy]

With Johnson running for re-election, Steil will probably be in congress until he retires for real, because I expect Gallagher to go for Baldwin's seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

There seems to be some confusion. Is this good or not?

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1506686145572315141

The congressional map was always a Hail Mary. Overall should have a small effect legislatively. The court could even pick Ever's map and just not mention race. However this could have other nationwide consequences. I think Republicans could try suing California's congressional map up to SCOTUS and they could succeed. This could also scare the FL legislature into acceding to DeSantis.

It seems the main reason SCOTUS got involved was because the WI supreme court had lackluster knowledge of the VRA and cited in a bad manner.

I wonder what the ramifications are for Ohio’s maps. It’s not a VRA issue but it seems like SCOTUS is more willing to get involved.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's actually not as hard and ugly as I thought to make 4 Biden districts:



WI-03 is Biden +3.0%

WI-01 is Biden +2.6%

All without splitting Dane.

WI-03 wouldn't remain a Biden seat for long, given the steady pro-GOP movement along the Iowa border.

It’s also possible the rural areas just stagnate or revert a bit.

[Tekken_Guy]

Technically the Congressional map wasn't drawn by the legislature though.

Hmmmm... good point.  Evers vetoed, and even a couple of the most originalist justices made clearly pro-veto comments in the NC case oral arguments, so this may be a different situation.  They would be asking for an even more aggressive form of ISLT than NC, and the NC case was looking like a close call anyway.

Yeah the best argument would be that the WISC only gets one shot a decade to draw the map and can't reverse itself, much like how some states like (like Minnesota as I noted) have language that explicitly only grants the legislature authority to draw the districts once per census. Honestly an argument like that could even get unanimous SCOTUS approval, or something like almost unanimous except Thomas writing some weird concur/dissent about some weird legal principles he wants to talk about as well.

So Wisconsin can’t redraw but North Carolina can?

[Tekken_Guy]

Doesn't look likely at this point:
https://twitter.com/Center4Politics/status/1643671177188057107?cxt=HHwWpoC9vcSOv...

[/quote]

Driftless's drift right has been fairly consistent, and to suddenly assume it'd revert would be the same wishcasting Rs do with many suburbs. Ds may make gains in Ew Claire and La Cross, but it likely isn't enough to pull a whole Congressional District left.

I meant at the presidential level. The Driftless playing catch-up downballot and continued rightward presidential movement are two different things.

[Tekken_Guy]

I mean the court could always overrule the the Wisconsin Elections Commission, but that would probably invite SCOTUS to come in and invoke the Purcell principle. 2026 feels like the most likely scenario here.

Which is fine given that any likely new map would probably push WI from 6-2 R to 5-3 R. This is relatively low stakes.

Or possibly 4-4.

[Tekken_Guy]

My guess is they'll go with something like this:



This WI-01 voted Biden +6 and Clinton +4. Even Russ Feingold won it by less than 1% in 2016.

WI-03 voted for Biden by a little over 5 points and for Hillary by over 3%. Steil might be able to hang on, but Van Orden would be done.

My hunch is they’ll also redraw the 8th by making a Green Bay to Oshkosh district that Trump won y single digit margins.

[Tekken_Guy]

Steil will be safe but Democrats still have a fighting chance of taking out Van Orden who has tons of baggage.