2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Spectator]

It's actually not as hard and ugly as I thought to make 4 Biden districts:



WI-03 is Biden +3.0%

WI-01 is Biden +2.6%

All without splitting Dane.

[MillennialModerate]

What are the chances the SCoTUS strikes down a ruling from the SCoW ?

I mean the 4-3 majority can rule a map isn’t fair and send them back to the drawing board but can they actually institute a specific map?

[Skill and Chance]

What are the chances the SCoTUS strikes down a ruling from the SCoW ?

I mean the 4-3 majority can rule a map isn’t fair and send them back to the drawing board but can they actually institute a specific map?

SCOTUS generally wouldn't have the authority to review how or why a state supreme court threw out state legislative maps under a state constitution, as long as the new maps don't violate federal law (think VRA and nearly equal population districts).  However, it could bring the independent state legislature stuff right back to SCOTUS if they overturn the congressional maps.

I do believe they could simply order a particular map or set of maps adopted.  That is what the PA supreme court did in 2018, for example.

[cvparty]

50-50 divide PA style, I don't know if there's a way to do it without splitting Milwaukee tho
Racine+Kenosha-Milwaukee-Waukesha kind of gives Butler-Allegheny-Westmoreland :P

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tried drawing a partisan-blind GA; it ended up "only" being 54Trump - 45Biden on 2020 Pres numbers and the chamber control in realistic reach for Dems. Biden has a lot more narrow seats than Trump though, largely from the Appleton - GreenBay area where you have a bunch of Trump-Biden seats.

Under a fair map, I think the general assembly is attainable for Dems long term if the Milwaukee suburbs continue to shift left (a lot of single digit Trump seats in this area), and they hold their ground elsewhere.

Is nesting districts required in WI?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Is nesting districts required in WI?

Yes. There’s also consistent precedent for small non contiguous parts to follow non contiguous City and Township lines.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is nesting districts required in WI?

Yes. There’s also consistent precedent for small non contiguous parts to follow non contiguous City and Township lines.

Ik. Discontinuity is a pet peeve of mine so as you might be able to tell in the map above, I choose to disreguard some city lines for the sake of continuity. Wisconsin precincts tend to be annoying cause you have a lot of discontinuous precincts near township lines.

[Epaminondas]

A few Wisconsin de-gerrymanders:

Map 1
Map 2
Map 3
Map 4

The last is aesthetically pleasing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm curious to see the route the court takes on a Congressional redraw. To be honest, I think a truly fair partisan-blind map would only yield slightly more equitable results on the Congressional level, with 2 safe D seats, 2 swing seats, and 4 relatively safe R seats. However, if the court aims for partisan fairness, we'll prolly end up with a map that's pretty bad when it comes to COIs.

It's more the legislature where a neutral map goes a long way. It's hard to draw an outright Biden majority, but you can get close in both chambers, and def keep Rs out of a supermajority.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm curious to see the route the court takes on a Congressional redraw. To be honest, I think a truly fair partisan-blind map would only yield slightly more equitable results on the Congressional level, with 2 safe D seats, 2 swing seats, and 4 relatively safe R seats. However, if the court aims for partisan fairness, we'll prolly end up with a map that's pretty bad when it comes to COIs.

It's more the legislature where a neutral map goes a long way. It's hard to draw an outright Biden majority, but you can get close in both chambers, and def keep Rs out of a supermajority.

IDK if they will actually redraw the congressional map?  It would send the ISLT thing right back to SCOTUS when it would be strongly in national Dem interests to push that off to at least 2031.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Technically the Congressional map wasn't drawn by the legislature though.

[Skill and Chance]

Technically the Congressional map wasn't drawn by the legislature though.

Hmmmm... good point.  Evers vetoed, and even a couple of the most originalist justices made clearly pro-veto comments in the NC case oral arguments, so this may be a different situation.  They would be asking for an even more aggressive form of ISLT than NC, and the NC case was looking like a close call anyway.

[Nyvin]

I'd rather not see the congressional map get redrawn.  Stick with redrawing the state legislature maps.

I just can't see a court drawn map doing things like splitting Milwaukee or Madison.  They might split part of Dane County, but that's probably as good as it gets.  Not worth it imo.

[oldtimer]

It's actually not as hard and ugly as I thought to make 4 Biden districts:



WI-03 is Biden +3.0%

WI-01 is Biden +2.6%

All without splitting Dane.

WI-03 wouldn't remain a Biden seat for long, given the steady pro-GOP movement along the Iowa border.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's actually not as hard and ugly as I thought to make 4 Biden districts:



WI-03 is Biden +3.0%

WI-01 is Biden +2.6%

All without splitting Dane.

WI-03 wouldn't remain a Biden seat for long, given the steady pro-GOP movement along the Iowa border.

It’s also possible the rural areas just stagnate or revert a bit.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Technically the Congressional map wasn't drawn by the legislature though.

Hmmmm... good point.  Evers vetoed, and even a couple of the most originalist justices made clearly pro-veto comments in the NC case oral arguments, so this may be a different situation.  They would be asking for an even more aggressive form of ISLT than NC, and the NC case was looking like a close call anyway.

Yeah the best argument would be that the WISC only gets one shot a decade to draw the map and can't reverse itself, much like how some states like (like Minnesota as I noted) have language that explicitly only grants the legislature authority to draw the districts once per census. Honestly an argument like that could even get unanimous SCOTUS approval, or something like almost unanimous except Thomas writing some weird concur/dissent about some weird legal principles he wants to talk about as well.

[Tekken_Guy]

Technically the Congressional map wasn't drawn by the legislature though.

Hmmmm... good point.  Evers vetoed, and even a couple of the most originalist justices made clearly pro-veto comments in the NC case oral arguments, so this may be a different situation.  They would be asking for an even more aggressive form of ISLT than NC, and the NC case was looking like a close call anyway.

Yeah the best argument would be that the WISC only gets one shot a decade to draw the map and can't reverse itself, much like how some states like (like Minnesota as I noted) have language that explicitly only grants the legislature authority to draw the districts once per census. Honestly an argument like that could even get unanimous SCOTUS approval, or something like almost unanimous except Thomas writing some weird concur/dissent about some weird legal principles he wants to talk about as well.

So Wisconsin can’t redraw but North Carolina can?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Technically the Congressional map wasn't drawn by the legislature though.

Hmmmm... good point.  Evers vetoed, and even a couple of the most originalist justices made clearly pro-veto comments in the NC case oral arguments, so this may be a different situation.  They would be asking for an even more aggressive form of ISLT than NC, and the NC case was looking like a close call anyway.

Yeah the best argument would be that the WISC only gets one shot a decade to draw the map and can't reverse itself, much like how some states like (like Minnesota as I noted) have language that explicitly only grants the legislature authority to draw the districts once per census. Honestly an argument like that could even get unanimous SCOTUS approval, or something like almost unanimous except Thomas writing some weird concur/dissent about some weird legal principles he wants to talk about as well.

So Wisconsin can’t redraw but North Carolina can?

North Carolina technically wouldn't be a redraw, just reinstating the legislature-drawn map. In Wisconsin no legislature-drawn map passed due to Evers' veto. It'd be the same situation in NC except the governor doesn’t have veto power over redistricting.

[oldtimer]

It's actually not as hard and ugly as I thought to make 4 Biden districts:



WI-03 is Biden +3.0%

WI-01 is Biden +2.6%

All without splitting Dane.

WI-03 wouldn't remain a Biden seat for long, given the steady pro-GOP movement along the Iowa border.

It’s also possible the rural areas just stagnate or revert a bit.

Doesn't look likely at this point:
https://twitter.com/Center4Politics/status/1643671177188057107?cxt=HHwWpoC9vcSOv...

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's actually not as hard and ugly as I thought to make 4 Biden districts:



WI-03 is Biden +3.0%

WI-01 is Biden +2.6%

All without splitting Dane.

WI-03 wouldn't remain a Biden seat for long, given the steady pro-GOP movement along the Iowa border.

It’s also possible the rural areas just stagnate or revert a bit.

Doesn't look likely at this point:
https://twitter.com/Center4Politics/status/1643671177188057107?cxt=HHwWpoC9vcSOv...

Driftless's drift right has been fairly consistent, and to suddenly assume it'd revert would be the same wishcasting Rs do with many suburbs. Ds may make gains in Ew Claire and La Cross, but it likely isn't enough to pull a whole Congressional District left.

[Tekken_Guy]

Doesn't look likely at this point:
https://twitter.com/Center4Politics/status/1643671177188057107?cxt=HHwWpoC9vcSOv...

[/quote]

Driftless's drift right has been fairly consistent, and to suddenly assume it'd revert would be the same wishcasting Rs do with many suburbs. Ds may make gains in Ew Claire and La Cross, but it likely isn't enough to pull a whole Congressional District left.

I meant at the presidential level. The Driftless playing catch-up downballot and continued rightward presidential movement are two different things.

[patzer]

It's actually not as hard and ugly as I thought to make 4 Biden districts:



WI-03 is Biden +3.0%

WI-01 is Biden +2.6%

All without splitting Dane.

However 4 safe R, 2 safe D, and 2 lean D really is not a fair map

You need to split milwaukee to get a fair map

[GALeftist]

I'm curious to see the route the court takes on a Congressional redraw. To be honest, I think a truly fair partisan-blind map would only yield slightly more equitable results on the Congressional level, with 2 safe D seats, 2 swing seats, and 4 relatively safe R seats. However, if the court aims for partisan fairness, we'll prolly end up with a map that's pretty bad when it comes to COIs.

It's more the legislature where a neutral map goes a long way. It's hard to draw an outright Biden majority, but you can get close in both chambers, and def keep Rs out of a supermajority.

IDK if they will actually redraw the congressional map?  It would send the ISLT thing right back to SCOTUS when it would be strongly in national Dem interests to push that off to at least 2031.

I don’t think I agree here? Right now ISLT that disqualifies court maps would give Democrats free rein in Maryland, Minnesota, and New York. In exchange, the GOP gets… nothing. Maybe insurance if the Florida Supreme Court ever grows a spine and decides to enforce the law?

[Nyvin]

After building out a full state assembly map with an accompanying state senate map, here's the main points I found, if any weren't obvious already -

1. The BOW region is the most heavily gerrymandered.  There really should be 7 assembly seats and 2 state senate seats there that are competitive, with a good number being Biden seats.  
Currently the Dems only hold the three vote sinks in the assembly, and aren't competitive in any others in the assembly or senate.

2. Sheboygan really should have a Biden assembly seat that leans D.  It's a perfect COI and fits very nicely with the rest of the map, it's just partisan interests that wants the city split up.

3. Milwaukee county is a pain in a** to draw, but anyway, 5 senate districts should be within the county, with the one in the southwest most likely competitive.  The amount of splitting the GOP did and sending the districts way out into the country is awful, although SD-5 probably flips in the next few cycles if there's no redraw.

4. SD-17 (southwest) is an obvious gerrymander along with it's accompanying assembly districts.  It should go into Dane county a bit and lean D.

5. Eau Claire should have more of it's suburbs/exurbs in with it on the senate map, and make the assembly  districts better for the D's.

6. I think Hudson and River Falls (Northwest) should be put together to make an assembly district that's competitive, but that might just be my opinion.  

State Senate -
https://davesredistricting.org/join/f5da008a-821c-4ada-a961-c3b5ae0fa8cf



State Assembly -
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6b0d5e35-f6be-4452-8d48-400f5284a0f8

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm curious to see the route the court takes on a Congressional redraw. To be honest, I think a truly fair partisan-blind map would only yield slightly more equitable results on the Congressional level, with 2 safe D seats, 2 swing seats, and 4 relatively safe R seats. However, if the court aims for partisan fairness, we'll prolly end up with a map that's pretty bad when it comes to COIs.

It's more the legislature where a neutral map goes a long way. It's hard to draw an outright Biden majority, but you can get close in both chambers, and def keep Rs out of a supermajority.

IDK if they will actually redraw the congressional map?  It would send the ISLT thing right back to SCOTUS when it would be strongly in national Dem interests to push that off to at least 2031.

I don’t think I agree here? Right now ISLT that disqualifies court maps would give Democrats free rein in Maryland, Minnesota, and New York. In exchange, the GOP gets… nothing. Maybe insurance if the Florida Supreme Court ever grows a spine and decides to enforce the law?

The ISLT really isn't the issue here because the current Wisconsin map isn't court drawn. The argument would probably rather be that courts don't get to just redraw maps whenever they decide to based on a change in alignment and they only get one shot per cycle.