CA, OH, TX (Emerson) - Biden +30, Trump +3, Trump +6

[LimoLiberal]

A reminder that polls underestimated Democrats in Texas in 2016:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_clinton-5694.html

and 2018:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html

[LimoLiberal]

Trump winning Texas by 6 would be in line with the excruciatingly slow yet consistent shift of Texas toward the Democrats. Seems inevitable at this point that the margin will be tighter than 2016.

Lizzie Fletcher, Colin Allred, and Beto O'Rourke would disagree with that characterization.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump winning Texas by 6 would be in line with the excruciatingly slow yet consistent shift of Texas toward the Democrats. Seems inevitable at this point that the margin will be tighter than 2016.

Lizzie Fletcher, Colin Allred, and Beto O'Rourke would disagree with that characterization.

TX-07 and TX-32 voted for Hillary in 2016

Romney won TX-07 by 21 points in 2012. Fletcher beat an incumbent by 5 points 6 years later.

Romney won TX-32 by 16 points in 2012. Allred beat an incumbent by 6 points 6 years later.

That is not an ~exruciatingly slow~ shift.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump winning Texas by 6 would be in line with the excruciatingly slow yet consistent shift of Texas toward the Democrats. Seems inevitable at this point that the margin will be tighter than 2016.

Lizzie Fletcher, Colin Allred, and Beto O'Rourke would disagree with that characterization.

TX-07 and TX-32 voted for Hillary in 2016

Romney won TX-07 by 21 points in 2012. Fletcher beat an incumbent by 5 points 6 years later.

Romney won TX-32 by 16 points in 2012. Allred beat an incumbent by 6 points 6 years later.

Just excruciating

I think they are meaning from 2016 not from 2012 . From 2012 of course its been massive

It's been massive from 2016 too by any measure. Beto O'Rourke in a midterm got 150,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton in a presidential year. In a state where a significant portion of the Democratic base is low-vote-propensity Hispanics.

I would argue that the suburbs of Atlanta, Houston, Austin, and Dallas are seeing some of the most intense leftward shifts in the country. Really not a "slow" trend at all compared to political shifts in the rest of the U.S.