CA, OH, TX (Emerson) - Biden +30, Trump +3, Trump +6
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  CA, OH, TX (Emerson) - Biden +30, Trump +3, Trump +6
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Author Topic: CA, OH, TX (Emerson) - Biden +30, Trump +3, Trump +6  (Read 3323 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« on: May 11, 2020, 05:05:53 PM »
« edited: May 11, 2020, 06:08:14 PM by LCameronOR »

California
Biden - 59
Trump - 29
Undecided - 12

Ohio
Trump - 46
Biden - 43
Undecided - 11

Texas
Trump - 47
Biden - 41
Undecided - 12



https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-texas-and-california-2020-trump-with-narrow-leads-in-ohio-and-texas-but-has-widespread-expectation-of-being-re-elected
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2020, 05:12:10 PM »

If this Ohio poll is true, Trump loses. Though I think once you adjust polls for usual errors it is around Trump +5 in OH and Trump +4.5ish in TX which still results in a Trump loss as if Trump wins TX by less that 5 he's losing AZ, probably NC and is 50/50 in GA
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2020, 05:14:35 PM »

Solid numbers for Biden, but it's Emerson.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2020, 05:18:40 PM »

Poor numbers for Biden, but the CA poll is almost certainly wrong so these results are trash.
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AGA
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« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2020, 05:19:24 PM »

These numbers seem fair.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2020, 05:20:09 PM »

Probably about where the race is at.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2020, 05:20:53 PM »

When leaners are pushed:

OHIO
Trump 51
Biden 49

TEXAS
Trump 52
Biden 48

CALIFORNIA
Biden 65
Trump 35
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: May 11, 2020, 05:23:14 PM »

So much for an EC collapse, Amash can still have influence on the race, this race isnt over like polls insist it is
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #8 on: May 11, 2020, 05:29:36 PM »

A reminder that polls underestimated Democrats in Texas in 2016:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_clinton-5694.html

and 2018:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html
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2016
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« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2020, 05:33:09 PM »

If this Ohio poll is true, Trump loses. Though I think once you adjust polls for usual errors it is around Trump +5 in OH and Trump +4.5ish in TX which still results in a Trump loss as if Trump wins TX by less that 5 he's losing AZ, probably NC and is 50/50 in GA
If Trump loses Ohio it will be much more about him than about Republicans in General IMO. That State is trending Republican and so does the entire Midwest I think. Trump winning IA, OH, WI, MI and PA wasn't a fluke in 2016. It was the beginning of a Realignment much like VA started the Realignment for Democrats in the South in 2006 when Jim Webb won and 2008 when Obama won VA and NC. We are going to lose NC, GA, VA for years to come but we can counter it by winning the Midwest. In fact the Rual/Urban Divide particularly in the Upper Midwest is quite striking. Where do Democrats get their Votes from if Cities like Detroit are shrinking on Population?
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ShamDam
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« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2020, 05:37:03 PM »

Trump winning Texas by 6 would be in line with the excruciatingly slow yet consistent shift of Texas toward the Democrats. Seems inevitable at this point that the margin will be tighter than 2016.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2020, 05:41:25 PM »

Yeah, I think Biden is only winning Ohio and Texas in a landslide. But also, I personally dont have a lot of faith in Emerson because of their methodology(Majority Landline + Opt in, online surveys). That's a conversation for another day though. 
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2020, 05:42:18 PM »

Trump winning Texas by 6 would be in line with the excruciatingly slow yet consistent shift of Texas toward the Democrats. Seems inevitable at this point that the margin will be tighter than 2016.

Lizzie Fletcher, Colin Allred, and Beto O'Rourke would disagree with that characterization.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2020, 05:42:45 PM »

When leaners are pushed:

OHIO
Trump 51
Biden 49

TEXAS
Trump 52
Biden 48

CALIFORNIA
Biden 65
Trump 35

Solid numbers here for Biden. If these are accurate AZ, MI, NE-02, PA and WI have flipped, FL probably flipped as well, IA, GA and NC would be close.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2020, 05:43:36 PM »

Trump winning Texas by 6 would be in line with the excruciatingly slow yet consistent shift of Texas toward the Democrats. Seems inevitable at this point that the margin will be tighter than 2016.

Lizzie Fletcher, Colin Allred, and Beto O'Rourke would disagree with that characterization.

TX-07 and TX-32 voted for Hillary in 2016
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2020, 05:47:10 PM »

Trump winning Texas by 6 would be in line with the excruciatingly slow yet consistent shift of Texas toward the Democrats. Seems inevitable at this point that the margin will be tighter than 2016.

Lizzie Fletcher, Colin Allred, and Beto O'Rourke would disagree with that characterization.
Not really. They only won low-hanging fruit.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2020, 05:47:59 PM »

Trump winning Texas by 6 would be in line with the excruciatingly slow yet consistent shift of Texas toward the Democrats. Seems inevitable at this point that the margin will be tighter than 2016.

Lizzie Fletcher, Colin Allred, and Beto O'Rourke would disagree with that characterization.

TX-07 and TX-32 voted for Hillary in 2016

Romney won TX-07 by 21 points in 2012. Fletcher beat an incumbent by 5 points 6 years later.

Romney won TX-32 by 16 points in 2012. Allred beat an incumbent by 6 points 6 years later.

That is not an ~exruciatingly slow~ shift.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2020, 05:48:43 PM »

Trump winning Texas by 6 would be in line with the excruciatingly slow yet consistent shift of Texas toward the Democrats. Seems inevitable at this point that the margin will be tighter than 2016.

Lizzie Fletcher, Colin Allred, and Beto O'Rourke would disagree with that characterization.

TX-07 and TX-32 voted for Hillary in 2016

Romney won TX-07 by 21 points in 2012. Fletcher beat an incumbent by 5 points 6 years later.

Romney won TX-32 by 16 points in 2012. Allred beat an incumbent by 6 points 6 years later.

Just excruciating

I think they are meaning from 2016 not from 2012 . From 2012 of course its been massive
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Pollster
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« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2020, 05:49:32 PM »

Terrible to force leaners instead of nudge them. Poll probably overstates both candidates' support.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2020, 05:50:43 PM »

I know, margin of error and all, but Trump isn’t doing ~5 percentage points better in TX than in IA. We’re probably going to see (once again) IA polls understating Republican strength and TX polls underestimating Democrats.

Needless to say, Trump is toast if OH is this close (which it probably would be if the election was tomorrow).
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2020, 05:54:32 PM »

Trump winning Texas by 6 would be in line with the excruciatingly slow yet consistent shift of Texas toward the Democrats. Seems inevitable at this point that the margin will be tighter than 2016.

Lizzie Fletcher, Colin Allred, and Beto O'Rourke would disagree with that characterization.

TX-07 and TX-32 voted for Hillary in 2016

Romney won TX-07 by 21 points in 2012. Fletcher beat an incumbent by 5 points 6 years later.

Romney won TX-32 by 16 points in 2012. Allred beat an incumbent by 6 points 6 years later.

Just excruciating

I think they are meaning from 2016 not from 2012 . From 2012 of course its been massive

It's been massive from 2016 too by any measure. Beto O'Rourke in a midterm got 150,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton in a presidential year. In a state where a significant portion of the Democratic base is low-vote-propensity Hispanics.

I would argue that the suburbs of Atlanta, Houston, Austin, and Dallas are seeing some of the most intense leftward shifts in the country. Really not a "slow" trend at all compared to political shifts in the rest of the U.S.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2020, 05:56:43 PM »

OP has a typo on the CA numbers, which have Trump at 29, not 39, per the graphic.

And Trump 47, Biden 41 without undecideds weighing in sounds in line for a Texas result in the 51-46 to 50-47 range I'm expecting. Trump winning by 3-5 in TX (with 5 being more likely than 3) sounds about right for the way the state is right now.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #22 on: May 11, 2020, 05:59:26 PM »

These seem fairly accurate, even by Emerson standards.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #23 on: May 11, 2020, 06:17:01 PM »

If this Ohio poll is true, Trump loses. Though I think once you adjust polls for usual errors it is around Trump +5 in OH and Trump +4.5ish in TX which still results in a Trump loss as if Trump wins TX by less that 5 he's losing AZ, probably NC and is 50/50 in GA
If Trump loses Ohio it will be much more about him than about Republicans in General IMO. That State is trending Republican and so does the entire Midwest I think. Trump winning IA, OH, WI, MI and PA wasn't a fluke in 2016. It was the beginning of a Realignment much like VA started the Realignment for Democrats in the South in 2006 when Jim Webb won and 2008 when Obama won VA and NC. We are going to lose NC, GA, VA for years to come but we can counter it by winning the Midwest. In fact the Rual/Urban Divide particularly in the Upper Midwest is quite striking. Where do Democrats get their Votes from if Cities like Detroit are shrinking on Population?

Most of the high growth areas in the Midwest are trending D though, like Kent County, Dane County, twin cities area, Franklin County, etc. 

If anything I'd see Midwest states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and maybe Pennsylvania being the new era's swing states long term.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #24 on: May 11, 2020, 06:18:23 PM »

CA margin identical to 2016.  Biden improving everywhere else.  Recent NY and MA polls showed the same.  Interesting.
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