CA, OH, TX (Emerson) - Biden +30, Trump +3, Trump +6

[Nyvin]

If this Ohio poll is true, Trump loses. Though I think once you adjust polls for usual errors it is around Trump +5 in OH and Trump +4.5ish in TX which still results in a Trump loss as if Trump wins TX by less that 5 he's losing AZ, probably NC and is 50/50 in GA

If Trump loses Ohio it will be much more about him than about Republicans in General IMO. That State is trending Republican and so does the entire Midwest I think. Trump winning IA, OH, WI, MI and PA wasn't a fluke in 2016. It was the beginning of a Realignment much like VA started the Realignment for Democrats in the South in 2006 when Jim Webb won and 2008 when Obama won VA and NC. We are going to lose NC, GA, VA for years to come but we can counter it by winning the Midwest. In fact the Rual/Urban Divide particularly in the Upper Midwest is quite striking. Where do Democrats get their Votes from if Cities like Detroit are shrinking on Population?

Most of the high growth areas in the Midwest are trending D though, like Kent County, Dane County, twin cities area, Franklin County, etc. 

If anything I'd see Midwest states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and maybe Pennsylvania being the new era's swing states long term.