CA, OH, TX (Emerson) - Biden +30, Trump +3, Trump +6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is no EC collapse AZ + 278 and 51/49 gives Dems the trifecta

[The Mikado]

There is no EC collapse AZ + 278 and 51/49 gives Dems the trifecta

Are you thinking Ds gain ME, CO, AZ, NC, and MT while losing AL?

Or do you have something weird like one of the Georgia seats or Iowa or Kansas or holding Alabama in the mix?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins can hold on, she will confirm Biden's nominees anyways, she isnt as endangered as Dems think. But polls have showed AZ, CO, KS, MT and NC with Dem consistent leads

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1260017736811311104

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1260017736811311104

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1260019987361566721

[Hollywood]

The numbers in the Ohio crosstabs are terrible for Biden.  Trump actually looks like he has enough enthusiastic support to retain or exceed his 2016 vote tally. 

36.7% of Respondents are Republican with 43.8% of respondents having voted for Donald Trump in 2016 (51.7% voted for Trump in 2016), and 34.5% saying they voted for Hillary.  While Trump won total voters 51.4 to 48.6 (2.8%), he led among the more decisive voters 46.1 to 42.5% (3.6%), which included a 1% win for him among women. 60% of Biden voters are either unexcited (35%) or mildly excited to support him, while 70% of Trump voters are excited to support Trump.  94% of the people that voted for Trump in 2016 said they will definitely vote for him in 2020, and 2% say they will vote for Biden.  However, 9% of Hillary Clinton voters say they will support Trump in 2020. 

Does anyone see the problem?   It wasn’t until Election Day that Emerson finally showed Trump winning by 7 points, and the crosstabs of those polls demonstrated two culprits: Enthusiasm and Favorability. 
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html#polls

Clearly enthusiasm for Biden is about as bad as it can get.  The gap is 20% wider than it was between Clinton and Trump, but Democrats assume the enthusiasm to beat Trump will make up the difference.  It won’t in Ohio where Trump has a 48-49% approval rating, and has a favorability rating around 48%.  Biden usually has a favorability rating of 41% to 43% in Ohio that is either even or underwater to his unfavorable numbers.  Recently Biden’s numbers nationally have tanked to -6, which is near the -6.1 national approval spread for Trump.   
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/joe_biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html#polls

[Tender Branson]

Those numbers look OK.

Biden might have gotten a dent in the polls recently because of Reade and Trump’s 10 million ad campaign in swing states.

[Alben Barkley]

The numbers in the Ohio crosstabs are terrible for Biden.  Trump actually looks like he has enough enthusiastic support to retain or exceed his 2016 vote tally. 

36.7% of Respondents are Republican with 43.8% of respondents having voted for Donald Trump in 2016 (51.7% voted for Trump in 2016), and 34.5% saying they voted for Hillary.  While Trump won total voters 51.4 to 48.6 (2.8%), he led among the more decisive voters 46.1 to 42.5% (3.6%), which included a 1% win for him among women. 60% of Biden voters are either unexcited (35%) or mildly excited to support him, while 70% of Trump voters are excited to support Trump.  94% of the people that voted for Trump in 2016 said they will definitely vote for him in 2020, and 2% say they will vote for Biden.  However, 9% of Hillary Clinton voters say they will support Trump in 2020. 

Does anyone see the problem?   It wasn’t until Election Day that Emerson finally showed Trump winning by 7 points, and the crosstabs of those polls demonstrated two culprits: Enthusiasm and Favorability. 
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html#polls

Clearly enthusiasm for Biden is about as bad as it can get.  The gap is 20% wider than it was between Clinton and Trump, but Democrats assume the enthusiasm to beat Trump will make up the difference.  It won’t in Ohio where Trump has a 48-49% approval rating, and has a favorability rating around 48%.  Biden usually has a favorability rating of 41% to 43% in Ohio that is either even or underwater to his unfavorable numbers.  Recently Biden’s numbers nationally have tanked to -6, which is near the -6.1 national approval spread for Trump.   
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/joe_biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html#polls

There's unskewing, and then there's Mental Gymastics Gold Medalists.

[Hollywood]

The numbers in the Ohio crosstabs are terrible for Biden.  Trump actually looks like he has enough enthusiastic support to retain or exceed his 2016 vote tally. 

36.7% of Respondents are Republican with 43.8% of respondents having voted for Donald Trump in 2016 (51.7% voted for Trump in 2016), and 34.5% saying they voted for Hillary.  While Trump won total voters 51.4 to 48.6 (2.8%), he led among the more decisive voters 46.1 to 42.5% (3.6%), which included a 1% win for him among women. 60% of Biden voters are either unexcited (35%) or mildly excited to support him, while 70% of Trump voters are excited to support Trump.  94% of the people that voted for Trump in 2016 said they will definitely vote for him in 2020, and 2% say they will vote for Biden.  However, 9% of Hillary Clinton voters say they will support Trump in 2020. 

Does anyone see the problem?   It wasn’t until Election Day that Emerson finally showed Trump winning by 7 points, and the crosstabs of those polls demonstrated two culprits: Enthusiasm and Favorability. 
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html#polls

Clearly enthusiasm for Biden is about as bad as it can get.  The gap is 20% wider than it was between Clinton and Trump, but Democrats assume the enthusiasm to beat Trump will make up the difference.  It won’t in Ohio where Trump has a 48-49% approval rating, and has a favorability rating around 48%.  Biden usually has a favorability rating of 41% to 43% in Ohio that is either even or underwater to his unfavorable numbers.  Recently Biden’s numbers nationally have tanked to -6, which is near the -6.1 national approval spread for Trump.   
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/joe_biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html#polls

There's unskewing, and then there's Mental Gymastics Gold Medalists.

What exactly is your objection with my post? 

Is a 30 percent enthusiasm gap amongst likely voters not an issue for the Democrats, especially when the Democratic nominee is becoming more unlikeable with voters? 
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-tied-democratic-enthusiasm-dips/story?id=43199459

Morning Consult illustrated a 6 point drop in favorability for Biden, and an 8 point drop among female voters.  Emerson had Trump beating Biden in Ohio with likely female voters.  If that trend with women continues, mental gymnastics will be the most popular sport on this forum. 
https://morningconsult.com/2020/05/11/biden-popularity-reade-allegations-polling/

[wbrocks67]

People need to stop about the enthusiasm gap. We've gone over this 1,000 times.

A) A lot of people are not necessarily enthused by Biden *himself* but ARE enthused to vote against Trump

B) Enthusiasm doesn't necessarily show up in the polls. Just look at Super Tuesday 2020.

[Hollywood]

People need to stop about the enthusiasm gap. We've gone over this 1,000 times.

A) A lot of people are not necessarily enthused by Biden *himself* but ARE enthused to vote against Trump

B) Enthusiasm doesn't necessarily show up in the polls. Just look at Super Tuesday 2020.

A) I mentioned this in my post. 

B) Enthusiasm showed up on Super Tuesday.  The polls after Nevada started showing more enthusiasm among likely voters for Biden, particularly among moderate Democrat voters that wanted  to coalesce around a center-left candidate they believed could beat Trump.  While Independents were interested in beating Trump (36-42%), polls show that they were just as, if not more, interested in the economy and national security. Among all groups, there was also an overall enthusiasm to stop Bernie for all kinds of reasons. 

[libertpaulian]

OH has gone from Likely R to Tilt R in my books.

[cris01us]

The numbers in the Ohio crosstabs are terrible for Biden.  Trump actually looks like he has enough enthusiastic support to retain or exceed his 2016 vote tally. 

That is all very valid, but in terms of the overall race, I'm not sure it will make a difference.  The common consensus is that Ohio is now about as red-a-shade of purple as you can get.  In many projections, Ohio is likely to not side with the winner of the general election for the first time in decades.  Nor does Biden need to win Ohio to secure his overall win, there are many feasible paths without it.  Certainly it would make sense for the DNC and Biden to spend time and and money there, but not to the extent they need to in AZ, WI, MI, and PA.   I would think Ohio, like NC or GA would be a "bonus win"....nice to have but not necessary.

[Sir Mohamed]

> M e m e r s o n

Mr. Trump will be lucky to get into the low 30s in CA. He may end up in the high 20s. The Golden State passionately dislikes him. For obvious reasons.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems need to stop dreaming of a 500 EC landslide and 60 seat Senate, Beto is not the one to flip TX. Castro is the key to flipping TX, Beto and Hegar are gonna lose. DEMS best scenario is a 290  EC vote and winning 4 or 5 Senate seats

[JRP1994]

Dems need to stop dreaming of a 500 EC landslide and 60 seat Senate, Beto is not the one to flip TX. Castro is the key to flipping TX, Beto and Hegar are gonna lose. DEMS best scenario is a 290  EC vote and winning 4 or 5 Senate seats

No. It's pretty easy to get Biden to 320 or 330 EVs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems need to stop dreaming of a 500 EC landslide and 60 seat Senate, Beto is not the one to flip TX. Castro is the key to flipping TX, Beto and Hegar are gonna lose. DEMS best scenario is a 290  EC vote and winning 4 or 5 Senate seats

No. It's pretty easy to get Biden to 320 or 330 EVs.

I was talking about 500 voted which include TX and the MSN polls, but Trump is not gonna give up and Hillary was at 330 EC votes this time in 2016, winning FL, NC, OH, and IA and it narrowed to 278

Coronavirus has put a damper on online donations for House candidate and wave insurance Senate candidates and some are complaining about Dems not doing enough to promote funding.

Working poor aren't gonna give $$$ from their stimulus checks to donations. Most of the donations occured while people were working full time and had extras to give

[cris01us]

Working poor aren't gonna give $$$ from their stimulus checks to donations. Most of the donations occured while people were working full time and had extras to give

That's a great point.  It makes one wonder how much the 2020 campaign finance numbers will surpass the 2016 numbers.  With no COVID I would have guessed we'd see over $2.2B raised just for the Presidential bid.  Now it looks like $1.9 might be all the higher it goes.  I guess the outliers, the Bloombergs of the world, could change that, but who knows.

[2016]

I actually disagree a lot what people are saying about Texas and these apparent shifts to the Democrats everyone is talking about in this Thread.

You might considering something:

Texas Democrats had extraordinary lucky circumstances in 2018. Not only was Trump toxic in the Suburbs and that's why Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred won their respective Races BUT Texas also probably had the least popular Senator of the entire Country, Ted Cruz, on the Ballot. Combine those two factors and you get the Results that you actually got.

Also, Governor Abbott managed to beat Democrat Lupe Valdez 55,8 % to 42,5 % (13.8 Percentage Points) on the same Night so it was much more about a combined angry Voters upset at Trump & Cruz than Texas shifting.

You put a Generic Republican like Romney, Haley, Rubio, etc. on the Texas Ballot and they would win it by double digits like it happened in 2012.

Texas is still a Lean R State IMO.

[libertpaulian]

I actually disagree a lot what people are saying about Texas and these apparent shifts to the Democrats everyone is talking about in this Thread.

You might considering something:

Texas Democrats had extraordinary lucky circumstances in 2018. Not only was Trump toxic in the Suburbs and that's why Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred won their respective Races BUT Texas also probably had the least popular Senator of the entire Country, Ted Cruz, on the Ballot. Combine those two factors and you get the Results that you actually got.

Also, Governor Abbott managed to beat Democrat Lupe Valdez 55,8 % to 42,5 % (13.8 Percentage Points) on the same Night so it was much more about a combined angry Voters upset at Trump & Cruz than Texas shifting.

You put a Generic Republican like Romney, Haley, Rubio, etc. on the Texas Ballot and they would win it by double digits like it happened in 2012.

Texas is still a Lean R State IMO.

Which isn't good for the GOP.

[Calthrina950]

I actually disagree a lot what people are saying about Texas and these apparent shifts to the Democrats everyone is talking about in this Thread.

You might considering something:

Texas Democrats had extraordinary lucky circumstances in 2018. Not only was Trump toxic in the Suburbs and that's why Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred won their respective Races BUT Texas also probably had the least popular Senator of the entire Country, Ted Cruz, on the Ballot. Combine those two factors and you get the Results that you actually got.

Also, Governor Abbott managed to beat Democrat Lupe Valdez 55,8 % to 42,5 % (13.8 Percentage Points) on the same Night so it was much more about a combined angry Voters upset at Trump & Cruz than Texas shifting.

You put a Generic Republican like Romney, Haley, Rubio, etc. on the Texas Ballot and they would win it by double digits like it happened in 2012.

Texas is still a Lean R State IMO.

Which isn't good for the GOP.

No it is not. And Abbott, though still winning by double digits, did worse in 2018 than in 2014, and the same worrying trends for Republicans could be detected in his victory. Like all Republicans, he generally did better in ancestrally Democratic white rural areas than in 2014, but worse in the metropolitan and suburban counties. He barely won Fort Bend County and lost Hays County, counties that are moving away swiftly from Republicans. If Republicans lose Texas-and current trends suggest that if they don't this year, they almost certainly will in 2024 or 2028-that will make their path to winning the Electoral College much more difficult.

[NOVA Green]

I actually disagree a lot what people are saying about Texas and these apparent shifts to the Democrats everyone is talking about in this Thread.

You might considering something:

Texas Democrats had extraordinary lucky circumstances in 2018. Not only was Trump toxic in the Suburbs and that's why Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred won their respective Races BUT Texas also probably had the least popular Senator of the entire Country, Ted Cruz, on the Ballot. Combine those two factors and you get the Results that you actually got.

Also, Governor Abbott managed to beat Democrat Lupe Valdez 55,8 % to 42,5 % (13.8 Percentage Points) on the same Night so it was much more about a combined angry Voters upset at Trump & Cruz than Texas shifting.

You put a Generic Republican like Romney, Haley, Rubio, etc. on the Texas Ballot and they would win it by double digits like it happened in 2012.

Texas is still a Lean R State IMO.

Humbly I would suggest not using TX GOV Abbot for any predictions whatsoever when it comes to Election Results within Tejas for other races....

I lived in Texas with Gov Abbot, and he had an entirely different perspective where he did not appear as a partisan nut, as opposed to his LT GOV.

I would be extremely careful about predicting '20 GE PRES results on the basis of TX-R-GOV '18 Election from a Guy, where we all knew his history and background that caused his disability, while meanwhile he seemed like a sane  'PUB in the crowd (TX style).

Honestly, would not be surprised to see Abbot's FAV ratings well beyond Trump (Let alone Cornyn)...

I lived in TX for (4) Yrs not that long ago in Metro H-Town, so tell me something I don't know about Trump in the 'Burbs...

Tejas is gonna go how it's gonna go, but Abbot will not be in the mix...

Maybe misreading your post?.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know polls go up and down every day, due to Trump's performance in press briefings. Trump hit another wall in his press briefing yesterday when he was making fun of Chinese heritage culture and making fun of of the word China; consequently,  it gets reflected in the tracking polls. That's why you have these wild swings in Reuters and Emerson day to day polling.

Leader McConnell was heard livid over those China remarks after Trump was coached not to say those things after disinfectant comment. It's a House of Cards

[Kleine Scheiße]

Junk poll, Biden will dominate texas

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Junk poll, Biden will dominate texas

No, it's not White and Hegar are losing by double digits to Cornyn and Abbott has an 80 percent approval.

TX is still an R state