2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California (user search)
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April 28, 2024, 02:00:59 AM
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California  (Read 89003 times)
jimrtex
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« on: May 28, 2020, 06:06:59 PM »

The legislature picks the first ten, then the commissioners select the next four, I believe.

The Republicans are never going to truly represent their party base here. The education levels sought do not align with your typical conservative voter.
The four legislative leaders may each strike two candidates from each pool, potentially reducing them to twelve each.

Then 8 are drawn randomly: 3D, 3R, and 2O.
These 8 select the final 6 from those not randomly selected.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2020, 07:36:48 PM »

On to serious discussion


The California Redistricting Commission has selected the final 60 names: 20 of each pool from which the final commissioners will be selected. You can access the lists here:

Republicans
Democrats
Unaffiliated

With these fairly detailed lists, we can begin to discern the shape of the commission. The most common characteristic of everyone is their comfortable income. This is unsurprising - those most willing to participate in redistricting are stable enough to give up time to political activism.
There is another reason. Those with skills attractive to the auditors likely have a higher income. For example, one of the commissioners last decade was a former head of the Census Bureau. Skills such as leadership of an organization, analytical skills, maps skills, resulted in a higher income.

Applicants had to submit what amounted to a resume, including letters of recommendation. 

A dishwasher might claim that his analytical skills are demonstrated by arranging the dishes to maximize throughput, or that he had stood up for a Burmese employee who was taunted by the other employees because she couldn't speak Spanish.

Demographically, the ethnic distribution is what one would expect but with some exceptions. The democrats have more minorities than whites, and the opposite is true for the GOP. The biggest demographic standout is in the Indie group, which is very diverse. It also has a lot of Asians, and we know how that group has moved in the past 4 years. It leads on to potentially conclude that there are D-leaners in both the GOP group and especially in the Indie pool considering the nature of the coalitions. This however should be unsurprising given California's Trend.

The most interesting thing though are the cross-cutting geographic identities selected by the California commission. There are A LOT of Bay Area Republicans, and Los Angeles dominates the democratic pool. This has seems to have been done to temper partisan attachment to ones home region - Bay Area republicans have nothing to present for the GOP in the region, and LA democrats are surrounded by more democrats and will be more concerned with ethnic communities. The problem I am sensing though is that the playing field is not level; this is California and the California Democratic Party has more tools at their disposal. If the Republican contingency is dominated by NorCal, then they won't have the on-the-ground knowledge that would help them preserve Red opportunities in Orange and her environs. I you only have a birds eye view then you may just see a Blue OC and consider it lost.
The commission has tended to have a northward bias. People around Sacramento probably have an inordinate interest in the legislature. People in LA will have more interest in Hollywood, aviation, or the beach. In Silicon Valley, they will be focused on tech.

The auditors are based in Sacramento and may be biased.

Applicants are classified by geographic region. But Santa Clara and Santa Cruz were swapped so that Santa Clara was placed in the Central Coast, and Santa Cruz in the Bay Area.

Northern Central Valley was effectively "Sacramento plus Yolo and Placer".

South Coast was everything from Ventura through San Diego.

Based on registration you would expect South Coast to have 27.60 of the 60 applicants. It has 20, only two of which are from Orange County.

Northern Central Valley should have 4.89 of 60 applicants. It has 11, plus there are three more from San Joaquin County.

While the commissioners are expected to respect the geographic diversity of the state, the auditors did not.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2020, 07:50:43 PM »

The approach people have been using is to draw districts and claim that they respect communities of interest.

The approach that the commission is likely to take is to identify communities of interest, and then draw lines based on those. This is definitely a requirement under the VRA. You have to pass the Gingles test before you draw the district.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2020, 02:24:21 AM »

I think this is a far better way to create a D leaning map in OC, looks clean and the only Trump seat (Trump+3) was the successor to the 49th (Levin) (South OC/North SD), though that one is definitely trending D



Only part I don't like here is the split of Newport Beach, but that was necessary for population equivalency purposes.

Not gonna lie, that's an incredibly attractive map and it groups COIs extremely well. It's certainly a fair OC map--not D-leaning per-se. Although personally, I might so a few splits in Anaheim and Garden Grove to clean up the edges and shore up each district's target demographic.
What happens if the commission asks their staff to put all of Newport Beach into the Irvine district, and gives a +/- 2% leeway (15,000) to avoid city splits?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2021, 04:30:04 PM »

I've always wondered if it's a good idea to connect San Benito County to Fresno and Merced. I discovered that there's a state highway connection to Merced and at least two county highways that go to Fresno. The current Fresno-Merced Hispanic district is 58% Hispanic overall. I made mine 67% and 53% HCVAP. This should be able to perform.


Depends on who is drawing the map. Doesn't the highway between Hollister and Merced go through Santa Clara, and the road to Fresno goes through Monterey.

Zoom in on San Benito.

I think San Benito gets stuck with which ever area needs more population, with the decision being made based on political maps rather than terrain maps.

Perhaps Morgan Hill-Gilroy-Hollister should be granted statehood so it could have its own congressional district.
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