2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[SevenEleven]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

Blairite's doesn't appear to by eyeballing it.

Yes it does. CA-44 is. It's basically the same as the current CA-46 but adds in the Anaheim Hills--which admittedly changes the shape somewhat.

Is that by residents or by CVAP? I think mine is 47% CVAP, but it needs to be at least 45%.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

Blairite's doesn't appear to by eyeballing it.

Yes it does. CA-44 is. It's basically the same as the current CA-46 but adds in the Anaheim Hills--which admittedly changes the shape somewhat.

Is that by residents or by CVAP? I think mine is 47% CVAP, but it needs to be at least 45%.

46% CVAP, 63% by population. Basically I'm trading a higher white population in the east for a lower Asian population in the west.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

[SevenEleven]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

Blairite's doesn't appear to by eyeballing it.

Yes it does. CA-44 is. It's basically the same as the current CA-46 but adds in the Anaheim Hills--which admittedly changes the shape somewhat.

Is that by residents or by CVAP? I think mine is 47% CVAP, but it needs to be at least 45%.

46% CVAP, 63% by population. Basically I'm trading a higher white population in the east for a lower Asian population in the west.

Nice. I still think that two GOP sinks are unnecessary. Both Levin and Porter should be around Biden +10 on my map. And I like my CA-25 a lot better. 😎

[SevenEleven]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

A Berkeley woman who donated to NARAL and Sierra Club. There's also I think a black Republican from West LA.

But "fair" is always going to be subjective anyways. If you want the Dem supermajority drawing lines instead of the commission, that's fine. I prefer having citizens do it even if it hurts Democrats slightly. The goal isn't to make it "fair" for both sides, it's to allow people rather than politicians to have more say.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

A Berkely woman who donated to NARAL and Sierra Club. There's also I think a black Republican from West LA.

Ah, that should've been a disqualifier right off. Well, we're screwed, it'll be fun

[SevenEleven]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

A Berkely woman who donated to NARAL and Sierra Club. There's also I think a black Republican from West LA.

Ah, that should've been a disqualifier right off. Well, we're screwed, it'll be fun

Still beats letting Sacramento Dems draw everything, no?

[Coastal Elitist]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

She donated like $100 and as a Republican from the bay area myself it's not at all surprising that there's pro choice Republicans here. I know this site thinks everyone needs to meet a litmus test to be in a specific party but for regular people who aren't obsessed about politics that isn't the case.

[lfromnj]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

She donated like $100 and as a Republican from the bay area myself it's not at all surprising that there's pro choice Republicans here. I know this site thinks everyone needs to meet a litmus test to be in a specific party but for regular people who aren't obsessed about politics that isn't the case.

Pro Choice Republicans exist,

Planned parenthood Republicans?

Anyway Im sure that gun store owner in Arizona is truly an indepdent

[SevenEleven]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

She donated like $100 and as a Republican from the bay area myself it's not at all surprising that there's pro choice Republicans here. I know this site thinks everyone needs to meet a litmus test to be in a specific party but for regular people who aren't obsessed about politics that isn't the case.

People who aren't obsessed with politics don't write essays about how they should join a redistricting commission.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

A Berkely woman who donated to NARAL and Sierra Club. There's also I think a black Republican from West LA.

Ah, that should've been a disqualifier right off. Well, we're screwed, it'll be fun

Still beats letting Sacramento Dems draw everything, no?

Nah, because now they get to claim it's unbiased map, and that republicans dominate redistricting so much, when dems still get Cali.

[SevenEleven]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

A Berkely woman who donated to NARAL and Sierra Club. There's also I think a black Republican from West LA.

Ah, that should've been a disqualifier right off. Well, we're screwed, it'll be fun

Still beats letting Sacramento Dems draw everything, no?

Nah, because now they get to claim it's unbiased map, and that republicans dominate redistricting so much, when dems still get Cali.

A Sacramento map would eliminate everyone but McCarthy. Its not hard to do. Republicans probably get five or six seats via commission. A lot of Dem incumbents would welcome a 40% GOP minority in their district to eliminate Dem challengers.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

A Berkely woman who donated to NARAL and Sierra Club. There's also I think a black Republican from West LA.

Ah, that should've been a disqualifier right off. Well, we're screwed, it'll be fun

Still beats letting Sacramento Dems draw everything, no?

Nah, because now they get to claim it's unbiased map, and that republicans dominate redistricting so much, when dems still get Cali.

A Sacramento map would eliminate everyone but McCarthy. Its not hard to do. Republicans probably get five or six seats via commission.

Got a point, jesus.

[Coastal Elitist]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

She donated like $100 and as a Republican from the bay area myself it's not at all surprising that there's pro choice Republicans here. I know this site thinks everyone needs to meet a litmus test to be in a specific party but for regular people who aren't obsessed about politics that isn't the case.

Pro Choice Republicans exist,

Planned parenthood Republicans?

Anyway Im sure that gun store owner in Arizona is truly an indepdent

Yes in the Bay Area they do because once again you don't have to support everything that a party supports to be in it. Before everything became super polarized this wouldn't at all be uncommon.  My family who are Republicans donate money to the sierra club which is usually seen as a left wing organization yet we can't stand the Democrats and would never vote for them so her situation isn't that surprising to me at all.

[SevenEleven]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

She donated like $100 and as a Republican from the bay area myself it's not at all surprising that there's pro choice Republicans here. I know this site thinks everyone needs to meet a litmus test to be in a specific party but for regular people who aren't obsessed about politics that isn't the case.

Pro Choice Republicans exist,

Planned parenthood Republicans?

Anyway Im sure that gun store owner in Arizona is truly an indepdent

Yes in the Bay Area they do because once again you don't have to support everything that a party supports to be in it. Before everything became super polarized this wouldn't at all be uncommon.  My family who are Republicans donate money to the sierra club which is usually seen as a left wing organization yet we can't stand the Democrats and would never vote for them so her situation isn't that surprising to me at all.

Fun fact: the only seat to flip on the bipartisan Bermanmander was Pombo, largely due to Sierra Club.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

She donated like $100 and as a Republican from the bay area myself it's not at all surprising that there's pro choice Republicans here. I know this site thinks everyone needs to meet a litmus test to be in a specific party but for regular people who aren't obsessed about politics that isn't the case.

On some level, both sides are just going off wishful thinking and we won't really know what's going to happen until the commission releases its map. That said, the average Republican on the commission is very clearly more left leaning than the average California Republican. Moreover, the independents are pretty left wing as well. IIRC, one of them is a Humboldt County "the Democrats are too conservative" type.

[SevenEleven]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

She donated like $100 and as a Republican from the bay area myself it's not at all surprising that there's pro choice Republicans here. I know this site thinks everyone needs to meet a litmus test to be in a specific party but for regular people who aren't obsessed about politics that isn't the case.

On some level, both sides are just going off wishful thinking and we won't really know what's going to happen until the commission releases its map. That said, the average Republican on the commission is very clearly more left leaning than the average California Republican. Moreover, the independents are pretty left wing as well. IIRC, one of them is a Humboldt County "the Democrats are too conservative" type.

That said, any map will still need at least one GOP commissioner vote. Berkeley lady, take my energy!

[Sestak]

I think the entire commission is stacked to all just be basically Democrats? even if some of them are registered Indy or Republican.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I think the entire commission is stacked to all just be basically Democrats? even if some of them are registered Indy or Republican.

Mhm

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think the entire commission is stacked to all just be basically Democrats? even if some of them are registered Indy or Republican.

Mhm

Cope.

[S019]

I think this is a far better way to create a D leaning map in OC, looks clean and the only Trump seat (Trump+3) was the successor to the 49th (Levin) (South OC/North SD), though that one is definitely trending D



Only part I don't like here is the split of Newport Beach, but that was necessary for population equivalency purposes.

[SevenEleven]

I think this is a far better way to create a D leaning map in OC, looks clean and the only Trump seat (Trump+3) was the successor to the 49th (Levin) (South OC/North SD), though that one is definitely trending D

Only part I don't like here is the split of Newport Beach, but that was necessary for population equivalency purposes.

I don't see any reason why there should be a Trump district in OC. Does your map have three Trump districts in socal?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think this is a far better way to create a D leaning map in OC, looks clean and the only Trump seat (Trump+3) was the successor to the 49th (Levin) (South OC/North SD), though that one is definitely trending D



Only part I don't like here is the split of Newport Beach, but that was necessary for population equivalency purposes.

Not gonna lie, that's an incredibly attractive map and it groups COIs extremely well. It's certainly a fair OC map--not D-leaning per-se. Although personally, I might so a few splits in Anaheim and Garden Grove to clean up the edges and shore up each district's target demographic.

[S019]

I think this is a far better way to create a D leaning map in OC, looks clean and the only Trump seat (Trump+3) was the successor to the 49th (Levin) (South OC/North SD), though that one is definitely trending D



Only part I don't like here is the split of Newport Beach, but that was necessary for population equivalency purposes.

Not gonna lie, that's an incredibly attractive map and it groups COIs extremely well. It's certainly a fair OC map--not D-leaning per-se. Although personally, I might so a few splits in Anaheim and Garden Grove to clean up the edges and shore up each district's target demographic.

So what happened is 47 being cut forces everything west, and since the successor to the 45th took up a good chunk of what used to be 48th share of the shore when I pushed it into the Asian cities, a lot of what used to be 45's part of south OC got pushed into the 49th's successor, which had to drop Carlsbad, Encinitas, etc. in SD as a result, this moved the 49th substantially to the right, but as a result, 50 picked up those cities and is now a narrow Clinton seat, so other than Calvert's Riverside seat, the successor to the 49th is the only Trump seat in Southern California

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So what happened is 47 being cut forces everything west, and since the successor to the 45th took up a good chunk of what used to be 48th share of the shore when I pushed it into the Asian cities, a lot of what used to be 45's part of south OC got pushed into the 49th's successor, which had to drop Carlsbad, Encinitas, etc. in SD as a result, this moved the 49th substantially to the right, but as a result, 50 picked up those cities and is now a narrow Clinton seat, so other than Calvert's Riverside seat, the successor to the 49th is the only Trump seat in Southern California

Makes sense. It's worth noting that the Huntington Beach/Garden Grove seat probably flipped to Trump this year--and the South OC/Oceanside seat may have flipped to Biden. Either way, both those are going to be extremely competitive for a few cycles.