2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think the key to drawing a fair map that cuts GOP representation in the area is:
1. Pair Newport with Irvine. To be honest, Newport, Irvine, Laguna, Costa Mesa, and Aliso Viejo have stronger ties than Newport does with Huntington or Irvine does with the Eastern Hills.
2. Send the remainder of South OC into Levin's district.
3. Put the Eastern Hills (Tustin, Anaheim Hills, etc.) in with the Anaheim/Santa Ana Latino VRA district.
4. Get creative pairing the rest of northern and western OC with Los Angeles County.

I just don't see the commission getting away with any maps that pair OC and Riverside. Similarly, connecting Newport to Long Beach rather than Irvine is a bit too obscene. An Asian Belt sink could be drawn but I'm quite skeptical Riverside needs a second sink. Corona and Lake Elsinore are increrasingly blue and so long as Temecula/Murrieta are in with the San Diego sink, everything should be fine.

Do you know what fair means?

A map can be fair on a COI level while simultaneously being less favorable to the GOP, yes. For example, a fair map would pair Newport Beach and Irvine which would just happen to help Democrats.

[Idaho Conservative]

I think the key to drawing a fair map that cuts GOP representation in the area is:
1. Pair Newport with Irvine. To be honest, Newport, Irvine, Laguna, Costa Mesa, and Aliso Viejo have stronger ties than Newport does with Huntington or Irvine does with the Eastern Hills.
2. Send the remainder of South OC into Levin's district.
3. Put the Eastern Hills (Tustin, Anaheim Hills, etc.) in with the Anaheim/Santa Ana Latino VRA district.
4. Get creative pairing the rest of northern and western OC with Los Angeles County.

I just don't see the commission getting away with any maps that pair OC and Riverside. Similarly, connecting Newport to Long Beach rather than Irvine is a bit too obscene. An Asian Belt sink could be drawn but I'm quite skeptical Riverside needs a second sink. Corona and Lake Elsinore are increrasingly blue and so long as Temecula/Murrieta are in with the San Diego sink, everything should be fine.

Do you know what fair means?

A map can be fair on a COI level while simultaneously being less favorable to the GOP, yes. For example, a fair map would pair Newport Beach and Irvine which would just happen to help Democrats.

fair in this context means not taking partisanship into account.  You clearly have.  Sure, it's possible some arrangements on a fair map would hurt Republicans, and some would hurt Dems too.  If every decision just happens to benefit one party then you can't claim it's a fair map.  Sure, we can discuss what would be legal under the rules.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think the key to drawing a fair map that cuts GOP representation in the area is:
1. Pair Newport with Irvine. To be honest, Newport, Irvine, Laguna, Costa Mesa, and Aliso Viejo have stronger ties than Newport does with Huntington or Irvine does with the Eastern Hills.
2. Send the remainder of South OC into Levin's district.
3. Put the Eastern Hills (Tustin, Anaheim Hills, etc.) in with the Anaheim/Santa Ana Latino VRA district.
4. Get creative pairing the rest of northern and western OC with Los Angeles County.

I just don't see the commission getting away with any maps that pair OC and Riverside. Similarly, connecting Newport to Long Beach rather than Irvine is a bit too obscene. An Asian Belt sink could be drawn but I'm quite skeptical Riverside needs a second sink. Corona and Lake Elsinore are increrasingly blue and so long as Temecula/Murrieta are in with the San Diego sink, everything should be fine.

Do you know what fair means?

A map can be fair on a COI level while simultaneously being less favorable to the GOP, yes. For example, a fair map would pair Newport Beach and Irvine which would just happen to help Democrats.

fair in this context means not taking partisanship into account.  You clearly have.  Sure, it's possible some arrangements on a fair map would hurt Republicans, and some would hurt Dems too.  If every decision just happens to benefit one party then you can't claim it's a fair map.  Sure, we can discuss what would be legal under the rules.

I'm not advocating for it per se. I'm just discussing what the commission--which very obviously has a D tilt--is likely to do.

[Idaho Conservative]

I think the key to drawing a fair map that cuts GOP representation in the area is:
1. Pair Newport with Irvine. To be honest, Newport, Irvine, Laguna, Costa Mesa, and Aliso Viejo have stronger ties than Newport does with Huntington or Irvine does with the Eastern Hills.
2. Send the remainder of South OC into Levin's district.
3. Put the Eastern Hills (Tustin, Anaheim Hills, etc.) in with the Anaheim/Santa Ana Latino VRA district.
4. Get creative pairing the rest of northern and western OC with Los Angeles County.

I just don't see the commission getting away with any maps that pair OC and Riverside. Similarly, connecting Newport to Long Beach rather than Irvine is a bit too obscene. An Asian Belt sink could be drawn but I'm quite skeptical Riverside needs a second sink. Corona and Lake Elsinore are increrasingly blue and so long as Temecula/Murrieta are in with the San Diego sink, everything should be fine.

Do you know what fair means?

A map can be fair on a COI level while simultaneously being less favorable to the GOP, yes. For example, a fair map would pair Newport Beach and Irvine which would just happen to help Democrats.

fair in this context means not taking partisanship into account.  You clearly have.  Sure, it's possible some arrangements on a fair map would hurt Republicans, and some would hurt Dems too.  If every decision just happens to benefit one party then you can't claim it's a fair map.  Sure, we can discuss what would be legal under the rules.

I'm not advocating for it per se. I'm just discussing what the commission--which very obviously has a D tilt--is likely to do.

Well I appreciate you helping to demonstrate such actions would be clearly done with partisan motivation and would go against the entire purpose of the commission.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I drew a Southern California map that is a) fair b) reflects COIs most of the time and c) just so happens to reduce Republican representation. I think the commission might try something like this out:

[Coastal Elitist]

I drew a Southern California map that is a) fair b) reflects COIs most of the time and c) just so happens to reduce Republican representation. I think the commission might try something like this out:

Obvious gerrymander is obvious. That's clearly not fair and it clearly doesn't reflect COIs or city lines which I noticed you don't have turned on. To begin with the commission will probably stick with the current Imperial to San Diego district which will throw off all those others but yeah your map clearly carves up cities.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I drew a Southern California map that is a) fair b) reflects COIs most of the time and c) just so happens to reduce Republican representation. I think the commission might try something like this out:

Obvious gerrymander is obvious.

Well yeah. The whole point of the exercise is to see what the commission could get away with in favor of Democrats.

That's clearly not fair and it clearly doesn't reflect COIs or city lines which I noticed you don't have turned on.

It absolutely follows city lines. I just always turn city lines off when I'm done for appearances. They're ugly.

To begin with the commission will probably stick with the current Imperial to San Diego district which will throw off all those others but yeah your map clearly carves up cities.

I seriously doubt it. Imperial+Coachella is a much better pairing for a bunch of reasons.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I drew a Southern California map that is a) fair b) reflects COIs most of the time and c) just so happens to reduce Republican representation. I think the commission might try something like this out:

So Partisan nonsense, got it. A fair map would try to make representation closer to the voter split.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I drew a Southern California map that is a) fair b) reflects COIs most of the time and c) just so happens to reduce Republican representation. I think the commission might try something like this out:

So Partisan nonsense, got it. A fair map would try to make representation closer to the voter split.

Look, I'm just trying to figure out how the commission is going to deal with OC since we all know they're going to have a Dem-bias. Huntington Beach+Long Beach and Southeast OC in with Escondido seems like the most workable solution.

[SevenEleven]

I prefer something like this:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I prefer something like this:

Are you concerned about the Fullerton, Irvine, Oceanside/San Clemente, and Escondido seats flipping?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I prefer something like this:

Oh God, the pain.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I drew a Southern California map that is a) fair b) reflects COIs most of the time and c) just so happens to reduce Republican representation. I think the commission might try something like this out:

So Partisan nonsense, got it. A fair map would try to make representation closer to the voter split.

Look, I'm just trying to figure out how the commission is going to deal with OC since we all know they're going to have a Dem-bias. Huntington Beach+Long Beach and Southeast OC in with Escondido seems like the most workable solution.

If you're admitting it's not really fair, I've got no problem with it, I would expect the commission to cut our seats.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If you're admitting it's not really fair, I've got no problem with it, I would expect the commission to cut our seats.

I am. My whole goal was to get the GOP down to 2 Southern California districts while keeping districts relatively compact.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

[quote author=LordDrachir link=topic=373117.msg7780772#msg7780772 date=1605763220
If you're admitting it's not really fair, I've got no problem with it, I would expect the commission to cut our seats.

I am. My whole goal was to get the GOP down to 2 Southern California districts while keeping districts relatively compact.
[/quote]
At least it's a pretty map that foretells our soon.

[SevenEleven]

I prefer something like this:

Are you concerned about the Fullerton, Irvine, Oceanside/San Clemente, and Escondido seats flipping?

Fullerton, no way. Irvine and Oceanside are even stronger for Biden than they were for HRC, so no. Escondido, maybe, but a swing seat is better than an R sink IMO.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I prefer something like this:

Are you concerned about the Fullerton, Irvine, Oceanside/San Clemente, and Escondido seats flipping?

Fullerton, no way. Irvine and Oceanside are even stronger for Biden than they were for HRC, so no. Escondido, maybe, but a swing seat is better than an R sink IMO.

Swing seats will probably trend D over the years, so it's better for y'all. Any of y'all know where Trump increased his vote?

[SevenEleven]

I prefer something like this:

Are you concerned about the Fullerton, Irvine, Oceanside/San Clemente, and Escondido seats flipping?

Fullerton, no way. Irvine and Oceanside are even stronger for Biden than they were for HRC, so no. Escondido, maybe, but a swing seat is better than an R sink IMO.

Swing seats will probably trend D over the years, so it's better for y'all. Any of y'all know where Trump increased his vote?

That band of four districts in North OC. HB and Westminster trended toward Trump, while NB and LB trended toward Biden in the Porter district.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I prefer something like this:

Are you concerned about the Fullerton, Irvine, Oceanside/San Clemente, and Escondido seats flipping?

Fullerton, no way. Irvine and Oceanside are even stronger for Biden than they were for HRC, so no. Escondido, maybe, but a swing seat is better than an R sink IMO.

Swing seats will probably trend D over the years, so it's better for y'all. Any of y'all know where Trump increased his vote?

That band of four districts in North OC. HB and Westminster trended toward Trump, while NB and LB trended toward Biden in the Porter district.

Ah. I'm just shocked he picked up 3%

[SevenEleven]

I prefer something like this:

Are you concerned about the Fullerton, Irvine, Oceanside/San Clemente, and Escondido seats flipping?

Fullerton, no way. Irvine and Oceanside are even stronger for Biden than they were for HRC, so no. Escondido, maybe, but a swing seat is better than an R sink IMO.

Swing seats will probably trend D over the years, so it's better for y'all. Any of y'all know where Trump increased his vote?

That band of four districts in North OC. HB and Westminster trended toward Trump, while NB and LB trended toward Biden in the Porter district.

Ah. I'm just shocked he picked up 3%

What do you mean by that?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I prefer something like this:

Are you concerned about the Fullerton, Irvine, Oceanside/San Clemente, and Escondido seats flipping?

Fullerton, no way. Irvine and Oceanside are even stronger for Biden than they were for HRC, so no. Escondido, maybe, but a swing seat is better than an R sink IMO.

Swing seats will probably trend D over the years, so it's better for y'all. Any of y'all know where Trump increased his vote?

That band of four districts in North OC. HB and Westminster trended toward Trump, while NB and LB trended toward Biden in the Porter district.

Ah. I'm just shocked he picked up 3%

What do you mean by that?

Statewide, he went from 31% to 34%

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Ah. I'm just shocked he picked up 3%

Yeah that shocked me too. If I had to guess, I'd say Trump probably did ~10% better in this area of LA/OC. Probably 50% of that statewide growth right there. Can't wait to see precinct results though.

[Coastal Elitist]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

[SevenEleven]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

My map has a Hispanic majority district, Blairite's doesn't appear to by eyeballing it. My map maintains every VRA district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

Blairite's doesn't appear to by eyeballing it.

Yes it does. CA-44 is. It's basically the same as the current CA-46 but adds in the Anaheim Hills--which admittedly changes the shape somewhat.