2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Idaho Conservative]

AA over-representation is much better for Republicans than Hispanic over-representation.  Inglewood, Compton, Richmond, and Oakland are not close to any red leaning areas.  Drawing a map favorable to blacks won't hurt republicans.   But drawing a latino friendly map could.  Of course, the map will be VRA compliant, but idk about a bunch of additional hispanic opportunity seats like some here hoped for. Good to see a central valley republican on there too. 

Ridiculous take. Favoring AAs means that Latino representation will have to be made up for elsewhere.

Ridiculous take. The gingles test doesn't work like that.

[SevenEleven]

AA over-representation is much better for Republicans than Hispanic over-representation.  Inglewood, Compton, Richmond, and Oakland are not close to any red leaning areas.  Drawing a map favorable to blacks won't hurt republicans.   But drawing a latino friendly map could.  Of course, the map will be VRA compliant, but idk about a bunch of additional hispanic opportunity seats like some here hoped for. Good to see a central valley republican on there too. 

Ridiculous take. Favoring AAs means that Latino representation will have to be made up for elsewhere.

Ridiculous take. The gingles test doesn't work like that.

Gingles test is barely applicable in California as it is.

[lfromnj]

AA over-representation is much better for Republicans than Hispanic over-representation.  Inglewood, Compton, Richmond, and Oakland are not close to any red leaning areas.  Drawing a map favorable to blacks won't hurt republicans.   But drawing a latino friendly map could.  Of course, the map will be VRA compliant, but idk about a bunch of additional hispanic opportunity seats like some here hoped for. Good to see a central valley republican on there too. 

Ridiculous take. Favoring AAs means that Latino representation will have to be made up for elsewhere.

Ridiculous take. The gingles test doesn't work like that.

Well Scotus wouldn't say that but the California redistricting commission with 0 Trump voters will.

[I’m not Stu]

Will CA-47 be redrawn to not dilute OC Democrats?

Without a doubt, although I don't think an Asian seat is likely at all. If anything we are probably going to get two AA seats, with an extra Latino seat in OC, the IE, and the CV.

Where might Garden Grove and Westminster go? On DRA, I could only get one Latino seat in OC. Do you mean a La Habra-Hacienda Heights-Whittier seat?

[SevenEleven]

Will CA-47 be redrawn to not dilute OC Democrats?

Without a doubt, although I don't think an Asian seat is likely at all. If anything we are probably going to get two AA seats, with an extra Latino seat in OC, the IE, and the CV.

Where might Garden Grove and Westminster go? On DRA, I could only get one Latino seat in OC. Do you mean a La Habra-Hacienda Heights-Whittier seat?

Probably HB, with a Fullerton-Whittier seat. Remember that the commissioners likely aren't too biased or political in terms of the map structure. They don't necessarily see things the way us nerds do. But there is bias in preferences and priorities when they hold community hearings. Competing influences will be noticed as the process continues.

[I’m not Stu]

Will CA-47 be redrawn to not dilute OC Democrats?

Without a doubt, although I don't think an Asian seat is likely at all. If anything we are probably going to get two AA seats, with an extra Latino seat in OC, the IE, and the CV.

Where might Garden Grove and Westminster go? On DRA, I could only get one Latino seat in OC. Do you mean a La Habra-Hacienda Heights-Whittier seat?

Probably HB, with a Fullerton-Whittier seat. Remember that the commissioners likely aren't too biased or political in terms of the map structure. They don't necessarily see things the way us nerds do. But there is bias in preferences and priorities when they hold community hearings. Competing influences will be noticed as the process continues.

You mean like the 1990s map (and my white DRA seat covering the Asian Belt)?

[The Ex-Factor]

One of the Democrats is a political science professor who specializes in Asian involvement in politics.

https://sarasadhwani.com/

[Oryxslayer]

Nice an analysis from Elections Daily on the 8 commissioners selected. As we suspected, it's going to be a commission that resembles how California votes presidentialy, even with the party ID requirements. This probably doesn't bias the commission like we imagine because at the end of the day these are private citizens, instead it might slants it. Somewhat like last time, the dems may play with minority groups and get them to present a curated message to the commission, a message that produces minute changes to dems liking.

As a said earlier, I'm not surprised that party ID =/= Partisanship. I'm sure everyone on the republican list voted for Poizner in 2018 and very well might have different views towards their state officials than their national ones. I'm more surprised by the quality of the Democrats. All of them have experience with voter or electoral organization in some capacity.

[Idaho Conservative]

AA over-representation is much better for Republicans than Hispanic over-representation.  Inglewood, Compton, Richmond, and Oakland are not close to any red leaning areas.  Drawing a map favorable to blacks won't hurt republicans.   But drawing a latino friendly map could.  Of course, the map will be VRA compliant, but idk about a bunch of additional hispanic opportunity seats like some here hoped for. Good to see a central valley republican on there too. 

Ridiculous take. Favoring AAs means that Latino representation will have to be made up for elsewhere.

Ridiculous take. The gingles test doesn't work like that.

Gingles test is barely applicable in California as it is.

Thats the legal standard tho

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This is so damn funny lol. So a bunch of academics/liberals decided to troll and apply for the commission as “Republicans”?

[Zaybay]

Nice an analysis from Elections Daily on the 8 commissioners selected. As we suspected, it's going to be a commission that resembles how California votes presidentialy, even with the party ID requirements. This probably doesn't bias the commission like we imagine because at the end of the day these are private citizens, instead it might slants it. Somewhat like last time, the dems may play with minority groups and get them to present a curated message to the commission, a message that produces minute changes to dems liking.

As a said earlier, I'm not surprised that party ID =/= Partisanship. I'm sure everyone on the republican list voted for Poizner in 2018 and very well might have different views towards their state officials than their national ones. I'm more surprised by the quality of the Democrats. All of them have experience with voter or electoral organization in some capacity.

The link doesnt work.

[Oryxslayer]

Nice an analysis from Elections Daily on the 8 commissioners selected. As we suspected, it's going to be a commission that resembles how California votes presidentialy, even with the party ID requirements. This probably doesn't bias the commission like we imagine because at the end of the day these are private citizens, instead it might slants it. Somewhat like last time, the dems may play with minority groups and get them to present a curated message to the commission, a message that produces minute changes to dems liking.

As a said earlier, I'm not surprised that party ID =/= Partisanship. I'm sure everyone on the republican list voted for Poizner in 2018 and very well might have different views towards their state officials than their national ones. I'm more surprised by the quality of the Democrats. All of them have experience with voter or electoral organization in some capacity.

The link doesnt work.

Fixed. For some reason I didn't realize the link wasn't copied the first time and I still had something else on the clipboard.

[Oryxslayer]

This is so damn funny lol. So a bunch of academics/liberals decided to troll and apply for the commission as “Republicans”?

No. Party ID =/= present voting. It's a lagging indicator but applicants are sorted based on that ID. You also may perceive of yourself as one thing because of a bunch of other votes, even though the most recent one wasn't harmonious with said past. I wouldn't be surprised if everyone on the GOP list votes against the property tax changes for instance.

The Nonpartisan grouping is even worse, since that category covers everyone from 'too extreme for a party' to 'normal voter but to lazy/angry/proud to align with a party,' and everything in between. Of course in California the nonpartisans are likely to be D-aligned just by the statewide statistics.

[EastAnglianLefty]

AA over-representation is much better for Republicans than Hispanic over-representation.  Inglewood, Compton, Richmond, and Oakland are not close to any red leaning areas.  Drawing a map favorable to blacks won't hurt republicans.   But drawing a latino friendly map could.  Of course, the map will be VRA compliant, but idk about a bunch of additional hispanic opportunity seats like some here hoped for. Good to see a central valley republican on there too. 

Ridiculous take. Favoring AAs means that Latino representation will have to be made up for elsewhere.

Ridiculous take. The gingles test doesn't work like that.

Gingles test is barely applicable in California as it is.

Thats the legal standard tho

It's not the only legal standard. California has its own redistricting legislation which sets out the commission's remit, which has a more expansive view of when minority districts need to be drawn.

[ottermax]

There's no connection between OC and SD in 48 unfortunately.

[I’m not Stu]

There's no connection between OC and SD in 48 unfortunately.

How should I change it?

[Oryxslayer]

There's no connection between OC and SD in 48 unfortunately.

Not defending ERM here, but there is a road from OC to the north side of Pendleton. The military owns all the land, but only perminantly resides in a small fraction - the rest is nature preserves sometimes used for various exercises. Basilone Road goes from south of San Clemente into the settlement proper, and then ammunition road takes you to Fallbrook. Of course it's not year round since the military may close the base to civilians at specific moments, terminating the connection.

[I’m not Stu]

There's no connection between OC and SD in 48 unfortunately.

Not defending ERM here, but there is a road from OC to the north side of Pendleton. The military owns all the land, but only perminantly resides in a small fraction - the rest is nature preserves sometimes used for various exercises. Basilone Road goes from south of San Clemente into the settlement proper, and then ammunition road takes you to Fallbrook. Of course it's not year round since the military may close the base to civilians at specific moments, terminating the connection.

I followed your map and discovered it doesn’t work. What should I do to fix it?

[ottermax]

There's no connection between OC and SD in 48 unfortunately.

Not defending ERM here, but there is a road from OC to the north side of Pendleton. The military owns all the land, but only perminantly resides in a small fraction - the rest is nature preserves sometimes used for various exercises. Basilone Road goes from south of San Clemente into the settlement proper, and then ammunition road takes you to Fallbrook. Of course it's not year round since the military may close the base to civilians at specific moments, terminating the connection.

I followed your map and discovered it doesn’t work. What should I do to fix it?

I think Temecula in Riverside and the surroundings are more connected to San Diego than going along the coast. It would result in splitting Riverside, but that SW Riverside County area is more connected to San Diego County in some ways. Another option would be to just squeeze the coastal district more northward so that the Eastern district can start to take up more of the SD County.

[I’m not Stu]

There's no connection between OC and SD in 48 unfortunately.

Not defending ERM here, but there is a road from OC to the north side of Pendleton. The military owns all the land, but only perminantly resides in a small fraction - the rest is nature preserves sometimes used for various exercises. Basilone Road goes from south of San Clemente into the settlement proper, and then ammunition road takes you to Fallbrook. Of course it's not year round since the military may close the base to civilians at specific moments, terminating the connection.

I followed your map and discovered it doesn’t work. What should I do to fix it?

I think Temecula in Riverside and the surroundings are more connected to San Diego than going along the coast. It would result in splitting Riverside, but that SW Riverside County area is more connected to San Diego County in some ways. Another option would be to just squeeze the coastal district more northward so that the Eastern district can start to take up more of the SD County.

My problem is with De Luz and De Luz Heights near Fallbrook and Camp Pendleton. What should I do there? Where should I put the OC south hills?

[Idaho Conservative]

but doesn't the current CA-49 only connect OC to SD via Pendleton?

[Oryxslayer]

but doesn't the current CA-49 only connect OC to SD via Pendleton?

Yeah, I5 along the coast works for connectivity between the two communities. Its the main artery from LA southwards. The road connections to the interior via the Pendleton precincts are very much inferior, but they are there.

[I’m not Stu]

but doesn't the current CA-49 only connect OC to SD via Pendleton?

Yeah, I5 along the coast works for connectivity between the two communities. Its the main artery from LA southwards. The road connections to the interior via the Pendleton precincts are very much inferior, but they are there.

I need help on what to do there. De Luz Heights is next to Fallbrook, but separating it from Oceanside would create an odd district shape. What should be done here?

[Idaho Conservative]

but doesn't the current CA-49 only connect OC to SD via Pendleton?

Yeah, I5 along the coast works for connectivity between the two communities. Its the main artery from LA southwards. The road connections to the interior via the Pendleton precincts are very much inferior, but they are there.

I need help on what to do there. De Luz Heights is next to Fallbrook, but separating it from Oceanside would create an odd district shape. What should be done here?

The Pendleton road doesn't work?  I mean it's not that important.  Not so bad if a candidate has to drive 5 minutes out of the district.

[MaxQue]

but doesn't the current CA-49 only connect OC to SD via Pendleton?

Yeah, I5 along the coast works for connectivity between the two communities. Its the main artery from LA southwards. The road connections to the interior via the Pendleton precincts are very much inferior, but they are there.

I need help on what to do there. De Luz Heights is next to Fallbrook, but separating it from Oceanside would create an odd district shape. What should be done here?

The Pendleton road doesn't work?  I mean it's not that important.  Not so bad if a candidate has to drive 5 minutes out of the district.

Year-long road connectivity is required by California law.