Rate CA-25 regular

[Mike Thick]

Lean Smith. Clear from the data that Garcia persuaded a substantial number of people, but he'll need more to compensate for increased Latino turnout. Also helps that he'll have a six-month record for Smith to hit him on

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'd still be surprised if it's not Smith, but the margin did catch me off guard. There's evidence to say that she is a bad candidate beyond general special election factors. Still in a seat like this it's hard to see actual swing voters being the types that would go Biden/Garcia.

Hot take time: Cenk would do better in a special, but not in the general.

Cenk would do better in a special than he'd do in a general, but he'd still underperform Christy Smith in the special election.

[I’m not Stu]

New DCCC poll: Smith+2.

[Coastal Elitist]

New DCCC poll: Smith+2.

that was conducted before the special lol

[I’m not Stu]

I haven't seen a regular election poll with Garcia leading yet.

[Non Swing Voter]

did new ballots trickle in as people were expecting?

[I’m not Stu]

Garcia won the special. The only poll for the regular shows Smith ahead. November will have hogher turnout.

[Annatar]

So far overall turnout is at 35% in CA-25, if it gets up to 40% I think it would be wrong to call this a very low turnout election, if it stays in the 35 - 39% range, than it was low turnout. If turnout gets over 40% and the margin is good for Garcia I think he is favoured for November as differential turnout at most makes a difference of 2 -3% if you do the maths, it's never the case just one party stays home.

[Coastal Elitist]

Garcia won the special. The only poll for the regular shows Smith ahead. November will have hogher turnout.

How is it a poll for the regular if it was taken May 6-10 which was before the special

[I’m not Stu]

Smith filed to run in the regular when she filed to run in the special. The poll was designed for the regular.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Garcia would do decent in the GE (tossup rn) since he has Latino appeal. Ofc, he won't win them as a group, but he would do better with them than a Generic R.

[Coastal Elitist]

did new ballots trickle in as people were expecting?

The first update since the ventura election day ballots on Wednesday is scheduled for this afternoon

[SevenEleven]

I think Garcia would do decent in the GE (tossup rn) since he has Latino appeal. Ofc, he won't win them as a group, but he would do better with them than a Generic R.

What's his "Latino appeal"?

[I’m not Stu]

He’s just a generic Republican.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1261422772590276609

Vote dump has slightly narrowed the margin to Garcia +9.7, with turnout actually surpassing the primary.

[Annatar]

Turnout has now exceeded 40%, it’s at 41% so this isn’t a low turnout election.
https://mobile.twitter.com/rpyers/status/1261443028553588736

If turnout ends up being 42-43% and Garcia wins by a good margin of 6-8%, then it’s a good sign for him as the electorate in November will not be that radically different. I would say Garcia is probably slightly favoured.

[Gracile]

Garcia could run ahead of Trump slightly and probably make this more competitive than another Republican. However, it's also pretty clear that Smith has far more votes left on the table (given presidential year turnout) and I think she would ultimately win.

[Nutmeg]

What was turnout in the special compared to normal turnout?

So far 173,322 votes have been counted, but my understanding is that more remain to be counted. This compares to 245,022 in 2018 and 261,161 in 2016. So probably down by a good bit as compared to a "normal" election but still quite high for a special.

[I’m not Stu]

Rate CA-25.

[Woody]

After Tuesday's results, I can confidently say Likely R.

Garcia +5

[I’m not Stu]

Lean D.

[lfromnj]

I think Garcia would do decent in the GE (tossup rn) since he has Latino appeal. Ofc, he won't win them as a group, but he would do better with them than a Generic R.

What's his "Latino appeal"?

Likely the fact that Christy Smith attacked the military and hes a veteran in a district with many military Latino families?

Anyway gonna wait for some analysis of the drop offs etc.

[We Live in Black and White]

After Tuesday's results, I can confidently say Likely R.

Garcia +5

Likely D.

[I’m not Stu]

I believe Garcia's margin of victory will shrink.

[HarrisonL]

Tossup, maybe Lean R. Garcia won't win by 12, he could win by 3-5%