Rate CA-25 regular

[Greedo punched first]

Who wins the regular?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Garcia wins this month (which is a big IF as it is still anyone's game), I think Dems should probably nominate someone else besides Christy Smith if they want the best chance of winning back the seat.

[Coastal Elitist]

If Garcia wins this month (which is a big IF as it is still anyone's game), I think Dems should probably nominate someone else besides Christy Smith if they want the best chance of winning back the seat.

They can't, it's already been decided

[Greedo punched first]

If Garcia wins this month (which is a big IF as it is still anyone's game), I think Dems should probably nominate someone else besides Christy Smith if they want the best chance of winning back the seat.

You think Garcia has a good chance to win the regular when Biden will win the district by 10+%?

[Roronoa D. Law]

If Garcia wins this month (which is a big IF as it is still anyone's game), I think Dems should probably nominate someone else besides Christy Smith if they want the best chance of winning back the seat.

They can't, it's already been decided

Probably referring to the election in November. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Likely Smith.

[Greedo punched first]

If Garcia wins this month (which is a big IF as it is still anyone's game), I think Dems should probably nominate someone else besides Christy Smith if they want the best chance of winning back the seat.

They can't, it's already been decided

Probably referring to the election in November. 

Smith is already nominated for November.

[free my dawg]

Still Smith.

[Gracile]

Smith, if (not when) she loses this month's special election it will be mostly due to anemic turnout among Democratic base voters who will turn out at higher rates in November. I don't think Garcia will have any sort of incumbency advantage to overcome those headwinds.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The general is Safe D

[S019]

Smith by anywhere from 8 to 12 points

[Xing]

Smith by a comfortable margin, even if she loses tomorrow.

[Greedo punched first]

Smith by a comfortable margin, even if she loses tomorrow.

[Beet]

If Smith somehow wins the special, she is obviously in a good position in the General. If she loses in a heartbreaker, she can look forward to taking it back in the general. However, if she gets clobbered (e.g. high single digits or more) I think Republicans have won back this seat.

[Greedo punched first]

I would imagine Smith narrowly wins or loses the special.

[BudgieForce]

So, at the moment, returned ballots are 44% Republican, 35% Democrat and 20% Independent.

I believe the returned absentee ballots in 2018 a day before the election were R+6. However, Hill had the benefit of same day voting. I think Smith can pull this off if same day ballot drop off and post marked ballots lean as heavily democrat as they did in 2018, but it'll be close.

https://tableau.the-pdi.com/t/CampaignTools/views/25thCDSpecialAVTracker/2020SpecialElectionTrackerVB?:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y

[wbrocks67]

It would truly be delicious if Smith ended up winning after the 50 "dems are bracing for a loss!!!!" articles I've seen

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It would truly be delicious if Smith ended up winning after the 50 "dems are bracing for a loss!!!!" articles I've seen

In b4 that becomes a blue wave narrative.

[Greedo punched first]

Who wins the regular election?

[morgieb]

I'd still be surprised if it's not Smith, but the margin did catch me off guard. There's evidence to say that she is a bad candidate beyond general special election factors. Still in a seat like this it's hard to see actual swing voters being the types that would go Biden/Garcia.

Hot take time: Cenk would do better in a special, but not in the general.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Will Smith still win the regular?

Why do you have to spam so much? Jesus you've already gotten your answer here.

[One Term Floridian]

I think the general is a pure toss-up. Garcia surprisingly won by a healthy margin and if he becomes popular in his district, he could get re-elected even in a double-digit Biden win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Garcia remains in office after 2021, he will be out after redistricting

[Tintrlvr]

Still think Smith by a solid margin. Hard to see Garcia getting the crossover votes he needs to win against a double-digit Biden win in this district. He was able to win the special election not due to crossover voting but because it had very low turnout, and the Democrats in California have been dreadfully bad at turning out their base outside of November for a long time. Incidentally, a 56R-44D result in an ordinary two-way jungle primary in California is exactly the kind of split you'd expect to see for a narrow Democratic win the in the run-off general election in November. Of course, this was even lower turnout than typical jungle primaries are. All in all, even though this was a D-v-R top-two race and not a jungle primary, another indication of why the jungle primaries are so absurd and bad.

[Greedo punched first]

What was turnout in the special compared to normal turnout?