2016: Rubio vs. Sanders

[AGA]

Post maps. Also, what would the margin in Florida be?

[Alben Barkley]

Worst case scenario for Sanders is probably something like this:

Rubio: 340
Sanders: 198

Probably the margin in Florida is mid-high single digits. Bernie is the weakest Democratic nominee imaginable for Florida, and Rubio among the strongest, yet I'm still not entirely comfortable saying he'd get blown out by double digits due to just how polarized Florida is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Worst case scenario for Sanders is probably something like this:

Rubio: 340
Sanders: 198

Probably the margin in Florida is mid-high single digits. Bernie is the weakest Democratic nominee imaginable for Florida, and Rubio among the strongest, yet I'm still not entirely comfortable saying he'd get blown out by double digits due to just how polarized Florida is.

Imagine how unhappy Sanders would be ITTL to see himself losing Minnesota of all places...

[Alben Barkley]

Worst case scenario for Sanders is probably something like this:

Rubio: 340
Sanders: 198

Probably the margin in Florida is mid-high single digits. Bernie is the weakest Democratic nominee imaginable for Florida, and Rubio among the strongest, yet I'm still not entirely comfortable saying he'd get blown out by double digits due to just how polarized Florida is.

Imagine how unhappy Sanders would be ITTL to see himself losing Minnesota of all places...

He lost Minnesota in our timeline, to Joe Biden in the primary. Honestly I'm not even 100% sure he'd win New Hampshire (where he effectively tied Pete Buttigieg) in this match-up. Maybe it and Minnesota would be the closest states.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Worst case scenario for Sanders is probably something like this:

Rubio: 340
Sanders: 198

Probably the margin in Florida is mid-high single digits. Bernie is the weakest Democratic nominee imaginable for Florida, and Rubio among the strongest, yet I'm still not entirely comfortable saying he'd get blown out by double digits due to just how polarized Florida is.

Imagine how unhappy Sanders would be ITTL to see himself losing Minnesota of all places...

He lost Minnesota in our timeline, to Joe Biden in the primary. Honestly I'm not even 100% sure he'd win New Hampshire in this match-up. Maybe it and Minnesota would be the closest states.

To be honest, I think he would very narrowly lose NH here, if he's managing to lose MN. It'd be within 100 votes or something, but it'd be a clear loss.
In 2016 Bernie romped the primary in some MW states (like MN, which was a great fit for his 2016 primary base). And yet, he would have been defeated in crushing fashion here. It'd sadden him.

[BigVic]

Worst case scenario for Sanders is probably something like this:

Rubio: 340
Sanders: 198

Probably the margin in Florida is mid-high single digits. Bernie is the weakest Democratic nominee imaginable for Florida, and Rubio among the strongest, yet I'm still not entirely comfortable saying he'd get blown out by double digits due to just how polarized Florida is.

Losing MN but not CO.

[Alben Barkley]

Worst case scenario for Sanders is probably something like this:

Rubio: 340
Sanders: 198

Probably the margin in Florida is mid-high single digits. Bernie is the weakest Democratic nominee imaginable for Florida, and Rubio among the strongest, yet I'm still not entirely comfortable saying he'd get blown out by double digits due to just how polarized Florida is.

Losing MN but not CO.

You may be right. He could lose both. But I don't see him winning MN but not CO actually. He won CO twice in the primaries, but MN only once. CO seems like a slightly better "fit" for him. Frankly I was trying to be generous to him with this map.

Plus in the 2016 general Hillary did win CO fairly comfortably despite losing it in the primaries, but only barely won MN. Which tells me MN is trending right whereas CO is trending left. Regardless of who the candidate is, that matters. Virginia is a different story because I think it's an atrocious fit for Bernie, unlike Colorado.

And keep in mind that the Republican candidate is ALSO different here. I think Bernie could beat Trump in Minnesota. But Rubio? Not so sure. Could have it totally wrong, of course -- maybe Trump did better in MN than Rubio would have due to his populist appeal or whatever. But that's just what my gut is telling me.

[President Johnson]

The Bern wins with 279 electoral votes, taking all states Hillary did plus the big three in the Rust Belt and Maine Second District. Rubio is an empty suit and didn't have the WWC appeal that Trump had, while Bernie would have appealed to enough of them to keep said states. I think even Ohio would have been close, while Bernie underperforms in the Sun Belt (loses Florida by about 4%)

✓ Senator Bernard Sanders (D-VT)/HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX): 279 EV. (49.91%)
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)/Governor Richard Snyder (R-MI): 259 EV. (46.67%)

[Lechasseur]

The Bern wins with 279 electoral votes, taking all states Hillary did plus the big three in the Rust Belt and Maine Second District. Rubio is an empty suit and didn't have the WWC appeal that Trump had, while Bernie would have appealed to enough of them to keep said states. I think even Ohio would have been close, while Bernie underperforms in the Sun Belt (loses Florida by about 4%)

✓ Senator Bernard Sanders (D-VT)/HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX): 279 EV. (49.91%)
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)/Governor Richard Snyder (R-MI): 259 EV. (46.67%)

Yeah i think it would basically be this map for Bernie

[dw93]

Virginia would be the deciding state. Bernie would hold the rust belt 3 and ME-2nd, Rubio would win all of Trump's other states.

[Lechasseur]

Virginia would be the deciding state. Bernie would hold the rust belt 3 and ME-2nd, Rubio would win all of Trump's other states.

Sounds right

[2016]

Overestimating Sanders Support in CO, NV or NM IMO.

If someone like Susana Martinez can win the Governor Race in NM twice then the 1st Hispanic Presidential Candidate can win there as well.

[President Biden Democrat]

Rubio would win barely. Sanders would probably take the Midwest (MI, WI, & PA). Rubio would probably win CO and NV or VA.

[2016]

Rubio would win barely. Sanders would probably take the Midwest (MI, WI, & PA). Rubio would probably win CO and NV or VA.

I think so too. One of the 3 he would win (CO, NV or NM)

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Bernie had less Hispanic support than Hillary and Rubio had more than Trump, and would also have more white suburb support, putting CO and NV in play.  Similar factors make NC and FL likely-Rubio and Virginia into a tossup or tilt Sanders at best.

This might be controversial, but Rubio still flips Pennsylvania due to suburbs, rural/exurban long term trends, and Bernie's stance on natgas.  FL is 53-45 and AZ is a similar margin.

[NewYorkExpress]

Marco Rubio/Mike Pence 384 EV 57%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard 154 EV 41%

Rubio may be an empty suit, but most Americans aren't going to elect a socialist. Plus Sanders's pick of Gabbard scares away any moderate Democrats who were willing to vote for him, causing states like California, Illinois and New York to be closer than normal.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Something like this:

(Rubio 276, Sanders 262)

In this scenario, Sanders holds onto the WWC voters in the midwest, keeping Iowa democratic and holding the margins in Ohio to a minimum. Rubio picks up the wonky types in NoVa alongside moderates in NH and NV, and only barely loses Colorado.

[Chips]

Would've probably looked like this in all honesty:



✓ Senator Marco A. Rubio (R-FL)/Governor Brian E. Sandoval (R-NV): 313 EV. (51.53%)
Senator Bernard Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Tammy S. Baldwin (D-WI): 225 EV. (47.28%)

Here's the breakdown in the important states:

Nevada: 52-47 Rubio (Sandoval VP pick helped here)
Colorado: 51-48 Rubio
New Mexico: 50-48 Rubio (His VP pick and his Hispanic roots helped him here)
Iowa: 50-49 Rubio (Closest state of the election, Tammy Baldwin almost picks this up for Sanders)
Minnesota: 51-47 Sanders
Wisconsin: 50-48 Sanders (This could've flipped too if Sanders hadn't picked Baldwin)
Michigan: 51-48 Sanders
Ohio: 50-48 Rubio
Pennsylvania: 50-48 Rubio (Rubio wins here by making up ground in Chester and Bucks, winning them both by a few points in addition to not getting smoked as badly in the Philly suburbs in general. This and Maine's 2nd are the only changes from the Jesusland map)
New Hampshire: 51-47 Sanders
Virginia: 52-46 Rubio (Rubio's appeal to southern voters and Bernie's weakness in the DC area allowed Rubio to win the state with ease. Rubio wins Loudoun, Henrico and Prince William with these factors in mind)
North Carolina: 55-44 Rubio
Florida: 56-43 Rubio (Rubio flips Miami-Dade)

Maine's 2nd district: 50-48 Rubio (Rubio pulls the upset here by still having some appeal to WWC voters)

His huge margins in southern states allow Rubio to win the popular vote with ease.

Bernie after this election goes on to be treated like his Democratic brother John Kerry 12 years prior, Right down to almost losing with the exact same map.

[darklordoftech]

Worst case scenario for Sanders is probably something like this:

Rubio: 340
Sanders: 198

Probably the margin in Florida is mid-high single digits. Bernie is the weakest Democratic nominee imaginable for Florida, and Rubio among the strongest, yet I'm still not entirely comfortable saying he'd get blown out by double digits due to just how polarized Florida is.

Imagine how unhappy Sanders would be ITTL to see himself losing Minnesota of all places...

He lost Minnesota in our timeline, to Joe Biden in the primary. Honestly I'm not even 100% sure he'd win New Hampshire (where he effectively tied Pete Buttigieg) in this match-up. Maybe it and Minnesota would be the closest states.

Based on that logic, McCain would have won New Hampshire in 2008.

[lord_moxley]

[Senator-elect Spark]

Rubio/Kasich - 52%
Sanders/Gabbard - 46%

[its_gi_brown]

Virginia would be the deciding state. Bernie would hold the rust belt 3 and ME-2nd, Rubio would win all of Trump's other states.

I could see this happening. Sanders would do well among white working class voters, but all of the conservatives who are opposed to socialism would freak out and I think Rubio would have a good chance in new Dem territory such as Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada. The Rust Belt would be very close, however. If Bernie wins it's because of them.

[Lord Admirale]

I did this one by margin rather than PV, lightest = 1-5 point win, darker = 5-10 point win, darkest = 10+ point win.

[S019]

NM, ME, and MN are very close, PV is Rubio 51-46

[SilverStar]

MO, NC, and OH are very close, PV is Sanders 50-47