House districts with illegal racial gerrymanders

[I’m not Stu]

There are many gerrymandered districts, but are there currently any that violate anti-racial gerrymandering laws?

I can think of three right now:  LA-02, AL-07, and SC-06.  All three districts needlessly pack African American voters into one district to keep the them from being able to elect a representative of their choice in at least one neighboring district.  All three of these states could easily have a second district where African Americans could elect a representative of their choice.

LA02 IIRC it was all but impossible to draw a 2nd black seat in 2010 due to Katrina,
AL07 sure it makes sense to have one black belt seat based in Montgomery and the black belt and then one Birmingham seat, having 2 black seats with an arm to mobile is just as absurd as the current seat.

This is conflating two separate things. It wasn't possible to draw 2 seats with a black majority in Louisiana, it was perfectly possible to draw 1 seat with a black majority and another where blacks would likely have been able to elect the candidate of their choice.

I'd also point out that AL-07 already gets within about 40 miles of Mobile. Sticking an arm out to grab it isn't absurd unless you think the VRA as a whole is absurd.

Wrong. It is possible.

[Torie]

I suspect the existing black CD under current law would be illegal if there were a redux of it, since a New Orleans based CD would be minority performing, but I also don't think the VRA requires the creation of a second black CD, since a non gerrymandered map does not result in such a CD. One has to create a CD that chops Baton Rouge, and Alexandria, and snake up the Mississippi River to far away rural areas. On the Louisiana thread I posted a non gerrymandered map that I think is almost certainly legal.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I suspect the existing black CD under current law would be illegal if there were a redux of it, since a New Orleans based CD would be minority performing, but I also don't think the VRA requires the creation of a second black CD, since a non gerrymandered map does not result in such a CD. One has to create a CD that chops Baton Rouge, and Alexandria, and snake up the Mississippi River to far away rural areas. On the Louisiana thread I posted a non gerrymandered map that I think is almost certainly legal.

Yep, the VRA neither can justify removing the sole minority CD nor requires the creation of a second such district.

[I’m not Stu]

I suspect the existing black CD under current law would be illegal if there were a redux of it, since a New Orleans based CD would be minority performing, but I also don't think the VRA requires the creation of a second black CD, since a non gerrymandered map does not result in such a CD. One has to create a CD that chops Baton Rouge, and Alexandria, and snake up the Mississippi River to far away rural areas. On the Louisiana thread I posted a non gerrymandered map that I think is almost certainly legal.

Eric Holder is working on a case involving Louisiana's map. This article proves Louisiana's map is illegal.

[Torie]

I suspect the existing black CD under current law would be illegal if there were a redux of it, since a New Orleans based CD would be minority performing, but I also don't think the VRA requires the creation of a second black CD, since a non gerrymandered map does not result in such a CD. One has to create a CD that chops Baton Rouge, and Alexandria, and snake up the Mississippi River to far away rural areas. On the Louisiana thread I posted a non gerrymandered map that I think is almost certainly legal.

I drew a second majority BCVAP district, which is far more compact than a redux of the New Orleans VRA district. My New Orleans VRA district is also more compact than the real one. So does this mean the real map is illegal? Eric Holder is working on a case involving Louisiana's map. My map is similar to the nonpartisan map in the article, but with updated population data and keeping Tangipahoa Parish whole.

Yes, I understand. All I am saying is that I think the odds are small that a court would insist on the map that you drew. Your map however would be legal, even if not required. If Holder is taking on a case asserting that a second black performing CD is required under the VRA, we will find out how accurate my opinion is. In other words, the map that I drew, which is not gerrymandered, and creates a CD that matches the Baton Rouge metro area, and follows county (parish) lines (see below), I think is most probably legal. The Pubs would be wise to draw something like it, to minimize the legal risk from the case Holder might well file.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I suspect the existing black CD under current law would be illegal if there were a redux of it, since a New Orleans based CD would be minority performing, but I also don't think the VRA requires the creation of a second black CD, since a non gerrymandered map does not result in such a CD. One has to create a CD that chops Baton Rouge, and Alexandria, and snake up the Mississippi River to far away rural areas. On the Louisiana thread I posted a non gerrymandered map that I think is almost certainly legal.

I drew a second majority BCVAP district, which is far more compact than a redux of the New Orleans VRA district. My New Orleans VRA district is also more compact than the real one. So does this mean the real map is illegal? Eric Holder is working on a case involving Louisiana's map. My map is similar to the nonpartisan map in the article, but with updated population data and keeping Tangipahoa Parish whole.

Yes, I understand. All I am saying is that I think the odds are small that a court would insist on the map that you drew. Your map however would be legal, even if not required. If Holder is taking on a case asserting that a second black performing CD is required under the VRA, we will find out how accurate my opinion is. In other words, the map that I drew, which is not gerrymandered, and creates a CD that matches the Baton Rouge metro area, and follows county (parish) lines (see below), I think is most probably legal. The Pubs would be wise to draw something like it, to minimize the legal risk from the case Holder might well file.

That map does look nice. It does look like that map would be hard to argue against in court.

[I’m not Stu]

Racial composition map of my fair map of Alabama.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is also a case in Alabama. I think the map I drew would work. Because Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana, it's much harder to draw a second performing district in Alabama. I drew what I think is a fair map with a VRA district and a Birmingham district.

Alabama is another case where there is a case for 2 but 1 is also acceptable.

[I’m not Stu]

There is also a case in Alabama. I think the map I drew would work. Because Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana, it's much harder to draw a second performing district in Alabama. I drew what I think is a fair map with a VRA district and a Birmingham district.

Alabama is another case where there is a case for 2 but 1 is also acceptable.

Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana. It's far more difficult to draw two in Alabama. My Alabama map has one performing Black Belt district and one Democratic leaning Birmingham district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is also a case in Alabama. I think the map I drew would work. Because Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana, it's much harder to draw a second performing district in Alabama. I drew what I think is a fair map with a VRA district and a Birmingham district.

Alabama is another case where there is a case for 2 but 1 is also acceptable.

Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana. It's far more difficult to draw two in Alabama. My Alabama map has one performing Black Belt district and one Democratic leaning Birmingham district.

A Birmingham district is a de facto black opportunity CD isn't it? So perhaps 1.5 seats as opposed to 1.

[I’m not Stu]

There is also a case in Alabama. I think the map I drew would work. Because Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana, it's much harder to draw a second performing district in Alabama. I drew what I think is a fair map with a VRA district and a Birmingham district.

Alabama is another case where there is a case for 2 but 1 is also acceptable.

Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana. It's far more difficult to draw two in Alabama. My Alabama map has one performing Black Belt district and one Democratic leaning Birmingham district.

A Birmingham district is a de facto black opportunity CD isn't it? So perhaps 1.5 seats as opposed to 1.

The Birmingham district is majority white by CVAP, but leans Democratic. It has a decent chance of electing a white Democrat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is also a case in Alabama. I think the map I drew would work. Because Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana, it's much harder to draw a second performing district in Alabama. I drew what I think is a fair map with a VRA district and a Birmingham district.

Alabama is another case where there is a case for 2 but 1 is also acceptable.

Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana. It's far more difficult to draw two in Alabama. My Alabama map has one performing Black Belt district and one Democratic leaning Birmingham district.

A Birmingham district is a de facto black opportunity CD isn't it? So perhaps 1.5 seats as opposed to 1.

The Birmingham district is majority white by CVAP, but leans Democratic. It has a decent chance of electing a white Democrat.

Are there notable levels of racial polarization in Dem primaries in Birmingham?

[I’m not Stu]

There is also a case in Alabama. I think the map I drew would work. Because Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana, it's much harder to draw a second performing district in Alabama. I drew what I think is a fair map with a VRA district and a Birmingham district.

Alabama is another case where there is a case for 2 but 1 is also acceptable.

Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana. It's far more difficult to draw two in Alabama. My Alabama map has one performing Black Belt district and one Democratic leaning Birmingham district.

A Birmingham district is a de facto black opportunity CD isn't it? So perhaps 1.5 seats as opposed to 1.

The Birmingham district is majority white by CVAP, but leans Democratic. It has a decent chance of electing a white Democrat.

Are there notable levels of racial polarization in Dem primaries in Birmingham?

I don't know. It's probably less polarized than most of the state.

[Torie]

There is also a case in Alabama. I think the map I drew would work. Because Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana, it's much harder to draw a second performing district in Alabama. I drew what I think is a fair map with a VRA district and a Birmingham district.

Alabama is another case where there is a case for 2 but 1 is also acceptable.

Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana. It's far more difficult to draw two in Alabama. My Alabama map has one performing Black Belt district and one Democratic leaning Birmingham district.

If Alabama does not lose a seat, just drawing a seat contained within the county that contains Birmingham (Jefferson) gives the Dems a second black performing CD. That is a case that Holder might well win, if lines are drawn by the Pubs to reduce black voting power. If Alabama does lose a seat, since then you cannot draw two remotely "compact" 50% BCVAP CD's, Holder does not have a case at all, unless SCOTUS tacks on this matter (highly unlikely). Thus the Pubs don't have much skin in the game whether the final census numbers excise a seat from NY (the second one) or Alabama. Either way, the seat lost is most probably theirs. But the Alabama Pubs might, if Alabama does not lose a seat,  want to go to SCOTUS, to test SCOTUS for their most execrable motives in this case, in my opinion.

[I’m not Stu]

There is also a case in Alabama. I think the map I drew would work. Because Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana, it's much harder to draw a second performing district in Alabama. I drew what I think is a fair map with a VRA district and a Birmingham district.

Alabama is another case where there is a case for 2 but 1 is also acceptable.

Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana. It's far more difficult to draw two in Alabama. My Alabama map has one performing Black Belt district and one Democratic leaning Birmingham district.

If Alabama does not lose a seat, just drawing a seat contained within the county that contains Birmingham (Jefferson) gives the Dems a second black performing CD. That is a case that Holder might well win, if lines are drawn by the Pubs to reduce black voting power. If Alabama does lose a seat, since then you cannot draw two remotely "compact" 50% BCVAP CD's, Holder does not have a case at all, unless SCOTUS tacks on this matter (highly unlikely). Thus the Pubs don't have much skin in the game whether the final census numbers excise a seat from NY (the second one) or Alabama. Either way, the seat lost is most probably theirs. But the Alabama Pubs might, if Alabama does not lose a seat,  want to go to SCOTUS, to test SCOTUS for their most execrable motives in this case, in my opinion.

You mean the ALGOP would try to get seven safe R districts?

[Torie]

No.