House districts with illegal racial gerrymanders

[Mr.Phips]

I don't think AL-07 or MS-02 is necessarily a problem.  If 2011 VA-03 fell, 2011 LA-02 should obviously fall as well.  Is it possible to draw 2 majority-black CVAP districts in SC without linking distant metros like VA-03 or LA-02?  If so, SC-06 should also fall.

They don’t have to be majority, just have a high enough percentage of African Americans to elect a representative of their choice in both districts.  In S.C., you would have one district anchored in Charleston and another in the connecting Columbia and the PeeDee.  Both districts would have a Democratic performance in the high 50s and a black percentage in the high 40s.

[lfromnj]

True Black seats that are 50% VAP would almost all but require a triple chop of Baton Rouge which is a parish of 450k people that doesn't even get its own dedicated congressional district based around it. However a fair map would combine Orleans with most of Jefferson Parish for a D trending almost 60% Clinton but low 40% black(albiet with significant Hispanic population in Jefferson) and then draw a Mississippi  river seat that also has a significant base in Baton Rouge that would be black majority but to actually get 2 black VAP seats you have to either make it super tendrily to smaller towns for the New Orleans seat or draw partly into Baton rouge with 2010 population.

[lfromnj]

I don't think AL-07 or MS-02 is necessarily a problem.  If 2011 VA-03 fell, 2011 LA-02 should obviously fall as well.  Is it possible to draw 2 majority-black CVAP districts in SC without linking distant metros like VA-03 or LA-02?  If so, SC-06 should also fall.

They don’t have to be majority, just have a high enough percentage of African Americans to elect a representative of their choice in both districts.  In S.C., you would have one district anchored in Charleston and another in the connecting Columbia and the PeeDee.  Both districts would have a Democratic performance in the high 50s and a black percentage in the high 40s.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/south-carolina/#Compact

the current SC map wasn't illegal anyway, by the current courts, but a pure fair map would do something like this. (usually 538 compact maps may violate COI's) but here its clear that it makes 3 compact competetive COI's. Arguably it might be worth breaking up the Charleston COI to take Beaufort so the Myrtle beach district takes in Berkeley for 2 coastal districts and then make SC 6th even more black belt based, it would be a competitive black belt seat with it possibly falling in R wave years.

However as I said this violates probably violates the VRA because competitive minority districts are forbidden. Also somehow even if a court did strike down the SC map for a fair map Clyburn would cry for a safe district with Columbia at the very least despite the fact Columbia makes for a very neat almost full congressional district with its suburban county Lexington that is also very competitive.

[I’m not Stu]

I don't think AL-07 or MS-02 is necessarily a problem.  If 2011 VA-03 fell, 2011 LA-02 should obviously fall as well.  Is it possible to draw 2 majority-black CVAP districts in SC without linking distant metros like VA-03 or LA-02?  If so, SC-06 should also fall.

They don’t have to be majority, just have a high enough percentage of African Americans to elect a representative of their choice in both districts.  In S.C., you would have one district anchored in Charleston and another in the connecting Columbia and the PeeDee.  Both districts would have a Democratic performance in the high 50s and a black percentage in the high 40s.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/south-carolina/#Compact

the current SC map wasn't illegal anyway, by the current courts, but a pure fair map would do something like this. (usually 538 compact maps may violate COI's) but here its clear that it makes 3 compact competetive COI's. Arguably it might be worth breaking up the Charleston COI to take Beaufort so the Myrtle beach district takes in Berkeley for 2 coastal districts and then make SC 6th even more black belt based, it would be a competitive black belt seat with it possibly falling in R wave years.

However as I said this violates probably violates the VRA because competitive minority districts are forbidden. Also somehow even if a court did strike down the SC map for a fair map Clyburn would cry for a safe district with Columbia at the very least despite the fact Columbia makes for a very neat almost full congressional district with its suburban county Lexington that is also very competitive.

Competitive minority districts are forbidden, really? Is California's AD-72 an "illegal district" because it's a swing district in the Asian Belt? Are you arguing that Section 2 is unconstitutional?

[lfromnj]

I don't think AL-07 or MS-02 is necessarily a problem.  If 2011 VA-03 fell, 2011 LA-02 should obviously fall as well.  Is it possible to draw 2 majority-black CVAP districts in SC without linking distant metros like VA-03 or LA-02?  If so, SC-06 should also fall.

They don’t have to be majority, just have a high enough percentage of African Americans to elect a representative of their choice in both districts.  In S.C., you would have one district anchored in Charleston and another in the connecting Columbia and the PeeDee.  Both districts would have a Democratic performance in the high 50s and a black percentage in the high 40s.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/south-carolina/#Compact

the current SC map wasn't illegal anyway, by the current courts, but a pure fair map would do something like this. (usually 538 compact maps may violate COI's) but here its clear that it makes 3 compact competetive COI's. Arguably it might be worth breaking up the Charleston COI to take Beaufort so the Myrtle beach district takes in Berkeley for 2 coastal districts and then make SC 6th even more black belt based, it would be a competitive black belt seat with it possibly falling in R wave years.

However as I said this violates probably violates the VRA because competitive minority districts are forbidden. Also somehow even if a court did strike down the SC map for a fair map Clyburn would cry for a safe district with Columbia at the very least despite the fact Columbia makes for a very neat almost full congressional district with its suburban county Lexington that is also very competitive.

Competitive minority districts are forbidden, really? Is California's AD-72 an "illegal district" because it's a swing district in the Asian Belt? Are you arguing that Section 2 is unconstitutional?

I do exaggerate but Vietnamese are quite different, See Texas 23 for the best complaints but also the rest of the RGV(they can't be TOOO safe either) which is just a bunch of random bs meant to already inflate an already inflated groups representation.

[I’m not Stu]

I don't think AL-07 or MS-02 is necessarily a problem.  If 2011 VA-03 fell, 2011 LA-02 should obviously fall as well.  Is it possible to draw 2 majority-black CVAP districts in SC without linking distant metros like VA-03 or LA-02?  If so, SC-06 should also fall.

They don’t have to be majority, just have a high enough percentage of African Americans to elect a representative of their choice in both districts.  In S.C., you would have one district anchored in Charleston and another in the connecting Columbia and the PeeDee.  Both districts would have a Democratic performance in the high 50s and a black percentage in the high 40s.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/south-carolina/#Compact

the current SC map wasn't illegal anyway, by the current courts, but a pure fair map would do something like this. (usually 538 compact maps may violate COI's) but here its clear that it makes 3 compact competetive COI's. Arguably it might be worth breaking up the Charleston COI to take Beaufort so the Myrtle beach district takes in Berkeley for 2 coastal districts and then make SC 6th even more black belt based, it would be a competitive black belt seat with it possibly falling in R wave years.

However as I said this violates probably violates the VRA because competitive minority districts are forbidden. Also somehow even if a court did strike down the SC map for a fair map Clyburn would cry for a safe district with Columbia at the very least despite the fact Columbia makes for a very neat almost full congressional district with its suburban county Lexington that is also very competitive.

Competitive minority districts are forbidden, really? Is California's AD-72 an "illegal district" because it's a swing district in the Asian Belt? Are you arguing that Section 2 is unconstitutional?

I do exaggerate but Vietnamese are quite different, See Texas 23 for the best complaints but also the rest of the RGV(they can't be TOOO safe either) which is just a bunch of random bs meant to already inflate an already inflated groups representation.

Does that mean you believe Section 2 is unconstitutional?

[lfromnj]

I don't think AL-07 or MS-02 is necessarily a problem.  If 2011 VA-03 fell, 2011 LA-02 should obviously fall as well.  Is it possible to draw 2 majority-black CVAP districts in SC without linking distant metros like VA-03 or LA-02?  If so, SC-06 should also fall.

They don’t have to be majority, just have a high enough percentage of African Americans to elect a representative of their choice in both districts.  In S.C., you would have one district anchored in Charleston and another in the connecting Columbia and the PeeDee.  Both districts would have a Democratic performance in the high 50s and a black percentage in the high 40s.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/south-carolina/#Compact

the current SC map wasn't illegal anyway, by the current courts, but a pure fair map would do something like this. (usually 538 compact maps may violate COI's) but here its clear that it makes 3 compact competetive COI's. Arguably it might be worth breaking up the Charleston COI to take Beaufort so the Myrtle beach district takes in Berkeley for 2 coastal districts and then make SC 6th even more black belt based, it would be a competitive black belt seat with it possibly falling in R wave years.

However as I said this violates probably violates the VRA because competitive minority districts are forbidden. Also somehow even if a court did strike down the SC map for a fair map Clyburn would cry for a safe district with Columbia at the very least despite the fact Columbia makes for a very neat almost full congressional district with its suburban county Lexington that is also very competitive.

Competitive minority districts are forbidden, really? Is California's AD-72 an "illegal district" because it's a swing district in the Asian Belt? Are you arguing that Section 2 is unconstitutional?

I do exaggerate but Vietnamese are quite different, See Texas 23 for the best complaints but also the rest of the RGV(they can't be TOOO safe either) which is just a bunch of random bs meant to already inflate an already inflated groups representation.

Does that mean you believe Section 2 is unconstitutional?

Not the entire thing, I believe it makes sense for deep Southern black seats(especially because many of those seats are valid COI's) but in Hispanic regions it should really just not be there especially because it requires CVAP to be done despite the fact that many people who demand that would be mad at citizen based reapportionment but they also demand it for certain seats., in northern cities I don't believe white suburbs/exurbs should be paired with black inner cities such as Chicago either because it ruins the COI's(speaking in a fair map), so a better example might be keeping detroit whole in one congressional district although one could argue the metro is big enough for detroit to have influence over districts which isn't bad either.

If the hispanic group is in a valid COI then don't racially split them up but they don't deserve to be extended with white rurals.

[lfromnj]

If I was drawing a map in SC for middle and low country.
Green is Safe R
Blue is Trump +2 while red is CLinton +4.5(Clyburns district)
Purple is Clinton +8 and only won Tim Scott lost in 2016.

All COI's except maybe the Charleston COI is kept together but I made 2 coastal districts in exchange for that and it helped preserve the black belt seat. This is a no VRA map and I bet one could offer this map to Clyburn and he wouldn't take it.

[I’m not Stu]

In CA-46, the Hispanic VRA district isn't extended to cover rural whites. Santa Ana is the COI.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If I was drawing a map in SC for middle and low country.
Green is Safe R
Blue is Trump +2 while red is CLinton +4.5(Clyburns district)
Purple is Clinton +8 and only won Tim Scott lost in 2016.

All COI's except maybe the Charleston COI is kept together but I made 2 coastal districts in exchange for that and it helped preserve the black belt seat. This is a no VRA map and I bet one could offer this map to Clyburn and he wouldn't take it.

Looks nice.
But you split Williamsburg County, which is a shame.

[Del Tachi]

It isn't possible to draw 2 majority-Black CVAP districts in LA.  You can have a majority-Black CVAP district based in North Louisiana/BTR, and then a plurality-White New Orleans based district. 

[voice_of_resistance]

Here is my take on a fair LA map.

LA-01: This no longer crosses Lake Ponchartrain and that way the Baton Rouge gerrymander can be undone. This seat takes in a tiny bit of Jefferson Parish but is now primarily southeastern Louisiana, reaching into the easternmost bits of Acadiana. It's bluer than old LA-01 but it's still Trump 64-33. Scalise would be fine here. Safe R

LA-02: The converse of LA-01 no longer crossing the lake is that LA-02 now takes in most of Jefferson. Given its recent leftward trends in statewide races as well as the fact that most of the Dems in this district live in Orleans, Richmond should likely easily survive a primary here. It's plurality white, but 41% BVAP. Clinton 62-34, Safe D.

LA-03: This seat stays mostly the same as Southwest Louisiana is a giant Republican vote sink. Clay Higgins gets to descend into the belly of the beast as long as he wants in this Trump 67-29 district, since Port Barre is in the 3rd and only the southeast portions of St. Landry Parish are moved into LA-01. Safe R.

LA-04: This seat now becomes rural northern LA, as Shreveport is excised. It takes in infamous LaSalle Parish, as well as Bossier and Ouachita Parishes (Monroe). Mike Johnson lives in Bossier, so he could run here and given that it is Trump 67-31, he would be fine. Safe R

LA-05: This seat is a cleaner version of the 1990s LA-04. It has Shreveport, some of the Florida Parishes, along with the Mississippi Parishes, and the black portions of Baton Rouge. It is 51% black, but plurality white VAP (48%-47%). It takes in the northern reaches of Tangipahoa including Amite, so JBE could run here if he wanted to, esp. given that it is plurality white. Abraham's successor is likely screwed here, as the old LA-05 had a sizeable black population but racial polarization kept it in check. Now the AA population is raised dramatically, and makes LA-05 Clinton 53-44, so it would likely elect a Democrat of AA choice, but could flip with a red wave/lethargic rural AA turnout. Likely D

LA-06: This seat is the successor to the old LA-01 and LA-06. It is essentially the band of ruby-red suburbs and exurbs of NOLA and Baton Rouge on the north side of Lake Ponchartrain and the Mississippi. Trump 71-24, so Garret Graves is safe here. Safe R

[lfromnj]

>connecting New orleans to Baton Rouge another city on the MS river
Racist GERRYMANDER STRIKE IT DOWN SCOTUS !
Connecting baton rouge to Shreveport a city on the other side of the state
#fairmaps

[voice_of_resistance]

well a NOLA to BR connecting district is obviously packing in Dems, and depriving AAs of their political power elsewhere in the state.

[lfromnj]

If you have to go Shreveport for a second black district or split the lake it isnt a fair map, and yes I agree that drawing it to Baton Rouge is a gerrymander to pack in D's
but drawing it to Shreveport is also an unnecessary gerrymander to help Democrats out.

[voice_of_resistance]

how would you draw a second AA seat then?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how would you draw a second AA seat then?

You could run it through Alexandria and other areas along the axis from Baton Rouge to Shreveport.

[lfromnj]

If its not possible to make a reasonable compact AA district then it isn't needed especially according to the Gingles test

[jimrtex]

Communities should not be required to be geographic. Person who identify with the black community should be permitted to collectively choose the persons who represent their community.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

how would you draw a second AA seat then?

You could run it through Alexandria and other areas along the axis from Baton Rouge to Shreveport.

Yep.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253423922726354952/photo/1

[Former President tack50]

IMO the way to draw a 2nd black district would be to have it as a swing district instead of a safe D district. Pretty sure the VRA doesn't allow that, but here is my take on a fair map for the 2020s:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d4b013fc-3fbf-4c0d-a3bd-093466993813



LA-01: Trump+48; R+27; (75% white, 16% black)
LA-02: Clinton+32; D+14 (47% black, 39% white)
LA-03: Trump+41; R+21 (68% white, 24% black)
LA-04: Trump+41; R+21 (67% white, 27% black)
LA-05: Trump+19; R+10 (55% white, 40% black)
LA-06: Clinton+3; EVEN (48% white, 46% black)

Basically you get a safe D district that elects a black representative and what's essencially a tossup district that, if it elects a democrat, it almost certainly elects a black democrat.

Worth noting that neither of my maps have the black districts as majority black VAP (they are 43 and 42% black respectively), though they should still elect black representatives regardless because of how voting is polarized. Plus that data is from 2010 anyways and things have changed?

In any case this LA-06 is most certainly compact and respecting communities of interest for the most part. It's problem is partisanship and demographics I suppose.

Also funny how LA-05 in this map is only 6% less black, yet it is Trump+19 compared to Clinton+3 for LA-06 lol

[I’m not Stu]

Why wouldn’t the VRA allow competitive majority-minority districts?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Just saying that its possible to draw a Mississippi that has a Safe D Majority Black VAP VRA seat AND a Competitive seat that Dems could possibly win when turnout goes their way.

I think Obama even won the Competitive seat in 2012 (though he lost it in 2008).

[I’m not Stu]

Is SC-06 illegal or just bad?

[voice_of_resistance]

IMO the way to draw a 2nd black district would be to have it as a swing district instead of a safe D district. Pretty sure the VRA doesn't allow that, but here is my take on a fair map for the 2020s:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d4b013fc-3fbf-4c0d-a3bd-093466993813



LA-01: Trump+48; R+27; (75% white, 16% black)
LA-02: Clinton+32; D+14 (47% black, 39% white)
LA-03: Trump+41; R+21 (68% white, 24% black)
LA-04: Trump+41; R+21 (67% white, 27% black)
LA-05: Trump+19; R+10 (55% white, 40% black)
LA-06: Clinton+3; EVEN (48% white, 46% black)

Basically you get a safe D district that elects a black representative and what's essencially a tossup district that, if it elects a democrat, it almost certainly elects a black democrat.

Worth noting that neither of my maps have the black districts as majority black VAP (they are 43 and 42% black respectively), though they should still elect black representatives regardless because of how voting is polarized. Plus that data is from 2010 anyways and things have changed?

In any case this LA-06 is most certainly compact and respecting communities of interest for the most part. It's problem is partisanship and demographics I suppose.

Also funny how LA-05 in this map is only 6% less black, yet it is Trump+19 compared to Clinton+3 for LA-06 lol

yeah because northern LA whites are much more racially polarized than southern LA whites. they're both R, but compare Catahoula/LaSalle Parishes to Acadiana and you'll see the difference.