This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[JimJamUK]

It’s the anniversary of John Smith’s passing.

A remarkable man- probably the most beloved figure from the right of the party among people of a certain age.

Always wondered how his Government would have ended up.

My dad, a vaguely left of Labour voter, speaks highly of him and wishes he had become prime minister instead of Blair (though even he has started to speak more positively of Blair, such is the nostalgia for a time when things were mostly going well, particularly for public services).

[Cassius]

Serious allegations made against a shadow minister of sexual harrassment and/or assault. As long as it is all rumour, though, hard to say what is the best course for the leadership.

If no formal complaint is made it's difficult to know exactly what can be done in a situation like that. Bolsters the case for stronger oversight from Commons officials over things like this, I think.

It's actually a real problem to know what to do in all these situations. The Tory MP we're not allowed to name cannot be suspended because then his victim would be revealed. This means that in order to protect the victims the MP can technically still attend Parliament.

We also can't start suspending at the slightest allegation because that would open it up to abuse.

We can't just wait for the wheels of justice because it would mean predators are allowed onto the estate.

I say arrest all the MPs and then sift out the MPs who are clean. Both of them.

Would certainly be interesting having a Commons composed solely of Jacob Rees-Mogg and Tim Farron.

[CumbrianLefty]

It’s the anniversary of John Smith’s passing.

A remarkable man- probably the most beloved figure from the right of the party among people of a certain age.

Always wondered how his Government would have ended up.

Amusing that so many on the left of the party revere him now - that's not how it was at the time.

In particular, his supporting OMOV in 1993 was bitterly denounced by them.

[YL]

Kim Leadbeater, the MP for Batley & Spen elected in the 2021 by-election (and Jo Cox's sister), has announced that she's intending to stand for the new Spen Valley rather than Dewsbury & Batley.

This is somewhat interesting as Dewsbury & Batley looks much better on paper for Labour; Spen Valley is certainly notionally Conservative.  But she lives in and went to school in Spen Valley, and that is where rather more of her current seat goes; I don't think we yet know how Labour are handling this, but under the 40% rule which they used in the past she wouldn't actually have a claim on Dewsbury & Batley.

Anyway, I think it makes more likely that Labour will win Spen Valley.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Losing the two Batley wards removes a lot of Labour votes, but it also removes most of the Galloway votes*, so if she can win the general election then she ought to have a quieter time of it.

*Though it does still have Heckmondwike, so a certain amount of weirdness is baked in either way.

[JimJamUK]

Even on this years local elections, Spen Valley is narrowly notionally Conservative. In reality, I think it would have narrowly voted Labour if a general election was held today, but it’s certainly a tough seat for her to hold.

[CumbrianLefty]

She has a good chance of winning it given both her local popularity, and the likely national picture.

I think some are exaggerating its rock solid nature for the Tories just a bit.

[Blair]

IIRC she did very well in the Spen part of the constituency in the by-election and I assume can basically expect to do quite well based on her personal brand here in a general election

 

[CumbrianLefty]

Shortlist for the Labour candidacy in my seat (Copeland) is out. Though given the substantial changes being made for Cumbria seats in the boundary review, it might have been better to leave them until it formally becomes law in the autumn?

Anyway, six people on it - but not one of the main "local" hopefuls, Joseph Ghayouba.

This is likely to cause a bit of unhappiness.

(I also note that Gillian Troughton is, incredibly, trying yet again)

[Blair]

Shortlist for the Labour candidacy in my seat (Copeland) is out. Though given the substantial changes being made for Cumbria seats in the boundary review, it might have been better to leave them until it formally becomes law in the autumn?

Anyway, six people on it - but not one of the main "local" hopefuls, Joseph Ghayouba.

This is likely to cause a bit of unhappiness.

(I also note that Gillian Troughton is, incredibly, trying yet again)

How are the seats changing?

Is troughton unpopular? My only memory of her from the by election was a video of her next to Tom Watson looking stern saying ‘no ifs no buts’ about the nuclear site.

I also recall a Scottish MP tried for the seat too?

[YL]

Shortlist for the Labour candidacy in my seat (Copeland) is out. Though given the substantial changes being made for Cumbria seats in the boundary review, it might have been better to leave them until it formally becomes law in the autumn?

Anyway, six people on it - but not one of the main "local" hopefuls, Joseph Ghayouba.

This is likely to cause a bit of unhappiness.

(I also note that Gillian Troughton is, incredibly, trying yet again)

How are the seats changing?

New Whitehaven & Workington seat formed from most of Copeland plus Workington town.  I assume this is the most attractive seat from a Labour point of view.

South end of Copeland (including where Cumbrian Lefty lives, IIRC) transferred to Barrow.

Westmorland & Lonsdale expands to include the rest of historic Westmorland (i.e. Kirkby Stephen, Appleby area) though not all of new Westmorland, and loses a handful of wards on the southern edge of the county to Morecambe & Lunesdale.

Carlisle takes on the "Border" part of Penrith & the Border.

Everything else becomes a new Penrith & Solway seat, which is in some sense the successor to Workington, though without the town of that name, with Penrith & the Border being abolished.

[CumbrianLefty]

Shortlist for the Labour candidacy in my seat (Copeland) is out. Though given the substantial changes being made for Cumbria seats in the boundary review, it might have been better to leave them until it formally becomes law in the autumn?

Anyway, six people on it - but not one of the main "local" hopefuls, Joseph Ghayouba.

This is likely to cause a bit of unhappiness.

(I also note that Gillian Troughton is, incredibly, trying yet again)

How are the seats changing?

Is troughton unpopular? My only memory of her from the by election was a video of her next to Tom Watson looking stern saying ‘no ifs no buts’ about the nuclear site.

I also recall a Scottish MP tried for the seat too?

You mean Thomas Docherty who represented a Scottish seat in 2010-15, yes - though he is in fact a native of West Cumbria and tried for this seat at the previous 2005 selection (coming second)

Troughton is quite well liked actually, but has a bit of a losing record now (her County Council seat in 2017 as well as the two parliamentary elections then, soon afterwards she was voted off the regional party reps thing as well) and some may think her time has come and gone.

Anyhow, the exclusion of Ghayouba has gone down as well as some suspected it would - with the CLP general committee resigning en bloc in protest. Though the same thing happened in Wakefield before the byelection last year following another shortlisting dispute, and it didn't make much difference in the broader scheme of things either then or in this year's local elections.

Of those who were longlisted, the son of Dale Campbell-Savours might be the one to watch.

[JimJamUK]

A very sus Labour candidate.

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1662047292487024641?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7...

[Blair]

A fight is beginning in Birkenhead between Alison McGovern & Mick Whitley; both have articles in Labourlist & well its interesting.

McGovern is the more high profile but had a larger role in the party a while back ironically*- she is from Wirral but her seat is getting abolished. It's been suggested she should have moved to go for Wirral West- I assume its becoming more Conservative leaning? So it's been typecast by certain people...

Equally though I recall there was complaints about the shortlisting last time in 2019 when Mick Whitley was selected & the '19 intake have been the most vulnerable to getting beaten.

*She is v much on the right but was rated enough that some in Corbyn's team wanted her to join the frontbench in 2019.

[EastAnglianLefty]

McGovern is the more high profile but had a larger role in the party a while back ironically*- she is from Wirral but her seat is getting abolished. It's been suggested she should have moved to go for Wirral West- I assume its becoming more Conservative leaning? So it's been typecast by certain people...

Wirral West gains the two most Conservative wards from McGovern's seat and loses half of the most reliably Labour ward from the existing seat, so yes, it becomes a bit more Conservative. Notionally it flips, although with a notional Conservative majority below 1000 so it ought to be relatively easy to defend at the next election.

Perhaps more pertinently, the incumbent has recently announced her retirement, so McGovern would have a free run at the seat. The CLP has also recently been put into special measures, which means their ability to select their own candidates is heavily circumscribed, but I'm not sure that matters because as an incumbent who currently represents part of the seat, McGovern wouldn't need to go through a full selection to get the nomination.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think McGovern must genuinely believe she has a real chance of winning the Birkenhead nomination.

Whitley was, after all, widely seen as a stop-gap when elected in 2019 (not least because of his age) and I really wouldn't like to call how this one will go - hopefully it doesn't get too unpleasant.

[Blair]

The only other fight between sitting MPs appears to be in South Wales & I can't even begin to understand the politics there.

The PLP is lucky as these boundary changes can cause quite nasty fights; as the Tories will see, although they are lucky that like Labour in 2010 a lot of people are retiring.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The South Wales contest is for Merthyr Tydfil and Upper Cynon and is between Gerald Jones and Beth Winter. This is an ultra-safe seat in the Upper Valleys. Jones has been the MP for Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney since 2015 and is a Shadow Welsh Office Minister. In terms of background, he used to be a councillor in the constituency and it's all fairly generic Welsh Labour stuff. He represents about 60% of the new seat, although he himself lives in the Rhymney Valley bit of his seat that goes in with Blaenau Gwent inseat.

Winter was first elected in 2019. Profiles when she was first elected described her as "born and bred in the constituency", which usually means "moved somewhere else for work". I'm not sure which bit of the Cynon Valley she grew up in. Prior to being elected, Winter was an academic and UCU official. As all that would imply, Winter is on the left of the party and is an SCG party. She was given a junior frontbench role under Starmer, so she's not in the group that was implacably hostile to his leadership, but she resigned it after about 6 months to vote against the whip on the Spycops bill. She represents about 40% of the new seat, so is presumably at a numerical disadvantage unless there are a lot more Labour members round Aberdare than round Merthyr.

[JimJamUK]

The South Wales contest is for Merthyr Tydfil and Upper Cynon and is between Gerald Jones and Beth Winter. This is an ultra-safe seat in the Upper Valleys. Jones has been the MP for Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney since 2015 and is a Shadow Welsh Office Minister. He represents about 60% of the new seat, although he himself lives in the Rhymney Valley bit of his seat that goes in with Blaenau Gwent inseat.

Winter was first elected in 2019. She represents about 40% of the new seat, so is presumably at a numerical disadvantage unless there are a lot more Labour members round Aberdare than round Merthyr.

To add, the rest of her constituency goes into Pontypridd where she would be outnumbered 2-1 by the territory from the existing Pontypridd constituency which also has an incumbent re-standing, so there was no easier option like McGovern may now have in Wirral West.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unless the geography has changed radically (which I doubt) the old Valleys CLP with the unusually large membership is the Rhondda, though none had small memberships. I doubt that the Upper Rhymney Valley had a particularly disproportionate share of Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney members, and I doubt that Aberdare does with respect to Cynon Valley members.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another person added to the Copeland shortlist - one Julia Lee. Nope, me neither.

[JimJamUK]

Two of our leading ‘liberal centrist’ commentators seem to believe that David Miliband losing the 2010 Labour leadership contest caused Trump to be elected president.

https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1662133999811145729?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gmZrchgst...

[Wiswylfen]

Two of our leading ‘liberal centrist’ commentators seem to believe that David Miliband losing the 2010 Labour leadership contest caused Trump to be elected president.

https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1662133999811145729?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gmZrchgst...

To be fair, you could make a case that a different candidate winning the Labour leadership with all its knock-on effects would have changed the result of the 2016 presidential election.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, could you? How exactly??

Campbell went on to say he didn't *really* believe all this anyway, so not sure what the fuss is about.

[Coldstream]

McGovern must believe she can win, and Whitley isn’t exactly projecting strength, but I’m surprised that she’s so confident - Birkenhead CLP never struck me as a progress friendly place.