This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh, and a reminder that its all of......two months......since CCHQ informed us Beergate was the most devastating Tory attack on Labour in living memory. RIP in pieces, I wanna run to you

[Blair]

Not seem Starmer that relaxed for a while.

He had a good dig at the Mail who didn’t turn up.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I look forward to care person personally campaigning in North West Durham.

On current polls I wouldn’t bother, he’s toast.

Given his silence on a spate of nasty crime related stories in his constituency over the past year I wonder if he even runs again there: he seems to have little interest in actually representing the place.

What rules do the Tories have on rat-running? Too early to think about it now, but if the polls look like they do now after Christmas, people are going to start considering it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://skwawkbox.org/2022/07/13/exclusive-starmer-must-come-clean-as-sources-insist-beergate-fine-pulled-by-chief-constable-under-pressure/

Skwabox not coping very well.

[CumbrianLefty]

The unholy alliance of crank left and right are going to go on pushing this, and nobody else will listen.

[Torrain]

Question for those with a better sense for THIGMOO dynamics:

James Frith, the former MP for Bury North (2017-19), has in the past few days been reselected by the local CLP to fight the seat in 2024. In the past couple of weeks, he's done a number of joint events with Christian Wakeford, and the two seem to be talking each other up - in public at least. Wakeford's fate doesn't seem to have been decided yet - from everything I can gather, Bury South CLP haven't announced a timeline for selection, or a trigger ballot. 

Does the embrace of Wakeford by local worthies like Frith suggest that he's more likely than not to win reselection? Or does the delay suggest that there could be a bit of a fight here?

[Blair]

I think they want all trigger ballots for PLP done before the summer- they’re still finishing some of them because local elections meant there was a delay in meetings and capacity. The rules aren’t any different for him but the NEC might have applied some sort of waiver to give him longer.

I don’t know the CLP dynamics at all- but I wouldn’t be shocked if they keep him with a few branches dissenting. He has made a genuine and most importantly low key effort to get in the good books of the party.

The trigger rules (50% of branches + 50% of affiliates like LGBT Labour, various unions have to vote for a contest) are a high barrier than can only imo be triggered for MPs if you’re extremely lazy, extremely out of touch or have local issues involving community politics.

Or if there is a particularly nasty campaign against you.

[JimJamUK]

Question for those with a better sense for THIGMOO dynamics:

James Frith, the former MP for Bury North (2017-19), has in the past few days been reselected by the local CLP to fight the seat in 2024. In the past couple of weeks, he's done a number of joint events with Christian Wakeford, and the two seem to be talking each other up - in public at least. Wakeford's fate doesn't seem to have been decided yet - from everything I can gather, Bury South CLP haven't announced a timeline for selection, or a trigger ballot. 

Does the embrace of Wakeford by local worthies like Frith suggest that he's more likely than not to win reselection? Or does the delay suggest that there could be a bit of a fight here?

I seem to vaguely remember Frith was quite positive at the time of the defection. The people who would be expected to dislike Wakeford are the local councillors (who he was slagging off shortly before defecting), the local activists (campaigning against someone tends not the breed comradeship), and the local members (who in Labour tend to be pretty left wing even now). I’m not sure you can read too much into the fact someone like Frith (and presumably the people in the party oking the events) are backing Wakeford, it’s the other people who decide and are harder to get a read on. My own guess is that Wakeford will be reselected, as he has been uncontroversial since defecting and local members probably won’t want to cause a fuss, which you really need to to get a sitting Labour MP deselected.

[Coldstream]

Question for those with a better sense for THIGMOO dynamics:

James Frith, the former MP for Bury North (2017-19), has in the past few days been reselected by the local CLP to fight the seat in 2024. In the past couple of weeks, he's done a number of joint events with Christian Wakeford, and the two seem to be talking each other up - in public at least. Wakeford's fate doesn't seem to have been decided yet - from everything I can gather, Bury South CLP haven't announced a timeline for selection, or a trigger ballot. 

Does the embrace of Wakeford by local worthies like Frith suggest that he's more likely than not to win reselection? Or does the delay suggest that there could be a bit of a fight here?

They are leaving Wakeford as late as possible to allow maximum time for Corbynites to leave, but I don’t think there’s any real chance of Wakeford getting deselected. Whilst there will be some natural grievances with him locally, the man quite clearly never belonged in the Tory party and seems more comfortable with us - I think it’s unlikely local members will want to cause a negative story for the party when he’s been so unobjectionable.

Indeed, it seems likely that it’ll only be SCG members triggered this time - with the possible addition of Owatemi in Coventry, though personally I think she’ll be fine.

[Torrain]

Cheers - thanks for your informative responses, guys.

[CumbrianLefty]

Question for those with a better sense for THIGMOO dynamics:

James Frith, the former MP for Bury North (2017-19), has in the past few days been reselected by the local CLP to fight the seat in 2024. In the past couple of weeks, he's done a number of joint events with Christian Wakeford, and the two seem to be talking each other up - in public at least. Wakeford's fate doesn't seem to have been decided yet - from everything I can gather, Bury South CLP haven't announced a timeline for selection, or a trigger ballot. 

Does the embrace of Wakeford by local worthies like Frith suggest that he's more likely than not to win reselection? Or does the delay suggest that there could be a bit of a fight here?

They are leaving Wakeford as late as possible to allow maximum time for Corbynites to leave, but I don’t think there’s any real chance of Wakeford getting deselected. Whilst there will be some natural grievances with him locally, the man quite clearly never belonged in the Tory party and seems more comfortable with us - I think it’s unlikely local members will want to cause a negative story for the party when he’s been so unobjectionable.

Indeed, it seems likely that it’ll only be SCG members triggered this time - with the possible addition of Owatemi in Coventry, though personally I think she’ll be fine.

Even there, it might only turn out to be Tarry and Begum in the end (both rather unusual cases)

For instance, going back to Coventry there is some muttering from local councillors to the media that they wouldn't mind having Zarah Sultana's seat - but nothing much actually seems to be happening.

[Coldstream]

Question for those with a better sense for THIGMOO dynamics:

James Frith, the former MP for Bury North (2017-19), has in the past few days been reselected by the local CLP to fight the seat in 2024. In the past couple of weeks, he's done a number of joint events with Christian Wakeford, and the two seem to be talking each other up - in public at least. Wakeford's fate doesn't seem to have been decided yet - from everything I can gather, Bury South CLP haven't announced a timeline for selection, or a trigger ballot. 

Does the embrace of Wakeford by local worthies like Frith suggest that he's more likely than not to win reselection? Or does the delay suggest that there could be a bit of a fight here?

They are leaving Wakeford as late as possible to allow maximum time for Corbynites to leave, but I don’t think there’s any real chance of Wakeford getting deselected. Whilst there will be some natural grievances with him locally, the man quite clearly never belonged in the Tory party and seems more comfortable with us - I think it’s unlikely local members will want to cause a negative story for the party when he’s been so unobjectionable.

Indeed, it seems likely that it’ll only be SCG members triggered this time - with the possible addition of Owatemi in Coventry, though personally I think she’ll be fine.

Even there, it might only turn out to be Tarry and Begum in the end (both rather unusual cases)

For instance, going back to Coventry there is some muttering from local councillors to the media that they wouldn't mind having Zarah Sultana's seat - but nothing much actually seems to be happening.

It’s possible, but not much happened publicly with Tarry before they got him - and the campaign to remove Sultana is as organised.

Osamor is the other one in danger, but that’s more of a community issue than political.

[CumbrianLefty]

Everyone and their dog knew from the moment Jas Athwal was cleared of the accusations against him that this was coming, though. Coventry South doesn't have anybody comparable for the anti-Sultana forces to rally around, as with most if not all other seats with SCG incumbents.

The long confirmed truism that is is incredibly hard to deselect a sitting Labour MP who really doesn't want to go, doesn't look like being contradicted much in this parliament.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Duffield might face problems too - she mostly uses her public platform for transphobia, has a bad relationship with a lot of people in the CLP and she's rumoured not to be particularly active in the constituency. That said, the trigger ballot there is being run by wards rather than branches, some of the wards are rather small and this will make it harder for those wards to run a quorate ballot (and if it's inquorate then it's effectively a vote against holding a full re-selection.)

[CumbrianLefty]

Also widely reported that RD spends most of her time in N Wales these days.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Duffield might face problems too - she mostly uses her public platform for transphobia, has a bad relationship with a lot of people in the CLP and she's rumoured not to be particularly active in the constituency. That said, the trigger ballot there is being run by wards rather than branches, some of the wards are rather small and this will make it harder for those wards to run a quorate ballot (and if it's inquorate then it's effectively a vote against holding a full re-selection.)

As far as I can tell, that CLP would be okay if she just focused on a different kind of bigotry.

[Coldstream]

Everyone and their dog knew from the moment Jas Athwal was cleared of the accusations against him that this was coming, though. Coventry South doesn't have anybody comparable for the anti-Sultana forces to rally around, as with most if not all other seats with SCG incumbents.

The long confirmed truism that is is incredibly hard to deselect a sitting Labour MP who really doesn't want to go, doesn't look like being contradicted much in this parliament.

All I know is that when I spoke to people in April about it, they were pessimistic about taking out Tarry, but optimistic about taking out Sultana. I’ve not seen anything to change my mind on that, Sultana wouldn’t even be the first hard left MP deselected in that constituency.

Tarry actually took steps to survive, he tried to organise and got out organised. Sultana has done next to nothing in Coventry.

[Zinneke]

Duffield might face problems too - she mostly uses her public platform for transphobia, has a bad relationship with a lot of people in the CLP and she's rumoured not to be particularly active in the constituency. That said, the trigger ballot there is being run by wards rather than branches, some of the wards are rather small and this will make it harder for those wards to run a quorate ballot (and if it's inquorate then it's effectively a vote against holding a full re-selection.)

As far as I can tell, that CLP would be okay if she just focused on a different kind of bigotry.

What kind of bigotry?

[JimJamUK]

Margaret Hodge attacking the weaponisation of anti-semitism shows how far we’ve come from the Corbyn days (especially given he got suspended for similar remarks). For background, she previously secretly recorded then leaked Corbyn discussing anti-semitism complaints, called him a “a f**king antisemite”, and then said the investigation into the latter remarks made her think about “what it felt like to be a Jew in Germany in the 30s”. She was previously a patron of the Campsign Against Antisemitism, but they forced her to resign as she was standing as a Labour candidate at the 2019 election, and therefore she has personal beef with them. The tweet comments are absolutely deranged.

https://twitter.com/margarethodge/status/1548787881631686658?s=21&t=Yd23OioO...

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Duffield might face problems too - she mostly uses her public platform for transphobia, has a bad relationship with a lot of people in the CLP and she's rumoured not to be particularly active in the constituency. That said, the trigger ballot there is being run by wards rather than branches, some of the wards are rather small and this will make it harder for those wards to run a quorate ballot (and if it's inquorate then it's effectively a vote against holding a full re-selection.)

As far as I can tell, that CLP would be okay if she just focused on a different kind of bigotry.

What kind of bigotry?

Very invested in Israel/Palestine issues, but not in a righteous or healthy way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CAA has had a... how shall we say... er... bad reputation amongst other activists against antisemitism for a few years now for various reasons (read: feuds and personal vendettas). They've also not coped very well with mainstream Jewish community organisations and institutions making their peace with Labour since Starmer's election and the publication and implementation of the EHRC report. In this particular instance they've fallen for what appears to be a pretty blatant piece of unpleasant agitprop trolling by a low-ranking journalist with fairly obvious hard-Left politics (and which has otherwise largely been noticed only by the Skwawkbox Tendency) because it fits with what they wish to hear.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very invested in Israel/Palestine issues, but not in a righteous or healthy way.

Somewhat amazingly the increasingly... erm... less than hinged... Duffield has been less of an embarrassment than the 2015 candidate would have been had he decided to stand in 2017 and had he been elected. Chris Williamson-tier views...

[Blair]

I mean I would be voting to trigger Duffield! For a number of reasons but her case is very much not a left v right.

It shall be an in interesting day for the discourse if she is triggered though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amongst other things there are serious questions as to whether she is now entirely... capable... of doing her job. Which we should note is also a factor in the unpleasant mess (I have no further comments as I don't know the full details and I'm not sure if anyone unable to speak Bengali does) unfolding at Poplar & Limehouse CLP.