Monmouth- Biden +9, +7 with Amash

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1258049055525154816

Biden 50 (+2 since April)
Trump 41 (-3 since April)

With Amash
Biden 47
Trump 40
Amash 5

[wbrocks67]

Woah. From +4 in April to +9 now. And Monmouth is usually one of Trump's better pollsters.

Biden loses 3% though when Amash is involved which is frustrating. Even getting 5% in a poll is too much. He's going to f**k this up for everyone.

[Bidenworth2020]

On the assault allegations, the gender gap is... not what you would expect.

37% say it is probably true, 32% say it is probably not true, and 31% have no opinion. Opinion on this question breaks sharply along partisan lines. More Republicans say the allegation is probably true (50%) than not true (17%) while more Democrats say is it is probably not true (55%) than true (20%). Independents are more likely to feel that the allegation is true (43%) rather than not true (22%), while 35% have no opinion either way. Overall, men (39% true and 29% not true) are slightly more likely than women (35% true and 34% not true) to believe the charge against Biden.

[Figueira]

On the assault allegations, the gender gap is... not what you would expect.

37% say it is probably true, 32% say it is probably not true, and 31% have no opinion. Opinion on this question breaks sharply along partisan lines. More Republicans say the allegation is probably true (50%) than not true (17%) while more Democrats say is it is probably not true (55%) than true (20%). Independents are more likely to feel that the allegation is true (43%) rather than not true (22%), while 35% have no opinion either way. Overall, men (39% true and 29% not true) are slightly more likely than women (35% true and 34% not true) to believe the charge against Biden.

This does make sense, given that women are more likely than men to support Biden (in the primary and the general).

[Sir Mohamed]

Mr. Trump stuck in the low 40s. Yikes!

[Gass3268]

Woah. From +4 in April to +9 now. And Monmouth is usually one of Trump's better pollsters.

Biden loses 3% though when Amash is involved which is frustrating. Even getting 5% in a poll is too much. He's going to f**k this up for everyone.

Johnson started out at 11% in March 2016, before dropping to 5% in October and only getting 3% nationally in the election. I expect Amash to get down to about 2% at best in November.

[ajc0918]

Even with the President's large war chest, it not be enough to move the numbers here.

[wbrocks67]

Biden's favorability has been pretty consistent since the primary virtually ended. Meanwhile, Trump has been sinking since March.

Trump favorability:
NOW: 40/53 (-13)
April: 42/50 (-8)
March: 46/49 (-3)
February: 44/53 (-9)
January: 43/55 (-12)

Biden favorability:
NOW: 41/44 (-3)
April: 41/42 (-1)
March: 43/43 (=)
February: 40/53 (-13)
January: 42/49 (-7)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sweep, Trumpism is finished

[Skye]

Amash gets almost no support from older voters. He's at just 1% among voters over 55 years old lol.

[Tintrlvr]

Is it even for sure yet that Amash will get the Libertarian nomination? I haven't been paying attention to their internal politics. They were able to clear the field for Johnson last time, but that's no guarantee that they'll do so again for Amash.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good take:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1258055072744910848

[Lief 🗽]

Good take:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1258055072744910848

I think a lot of that also is that people have been told that they're horrible people if they don't automatically believe rape accusations, no matter how non-credible they are, so they tell pollsters they believe the Reade allegations whether or not they truly do.

[wbrocks67]

Is it even for sure yet that Amash will get the Libertarian nomination? I haven't been paying attention to their internal politics. They were able to clear the field for Johnson last time, but that's no guarantee that they'll do so again for Amash.

Also, are the Libs and Greens even getting on the ballot in most states?

[Pollster]

86% here say they've heard about the Reade stuff, so it suggests the story isn't denting Biden.

[Tender Branson]

Anash would get 0.5%, not 5% ...

[The Mikado]

Is it even for sure yet that Amash will get the Libertarian nomination? I haven't been paying attention to their internal politics. They were able to clear the field for Johnson last time, but that's no guarantee that they'll do so again for Amash.

Also, are the Libs and Greens even getting on the ballot in most states?

Libertarians are going to be on the ballot in over 40 states, though Libertarians aren't going to replicate 2016's 50 state ballot access. They already have access in 36 states and counting.



Greens are going to be a lot more restricted than in 2016.

EDIT: A number of the grey states on that map, like WA, MN, WI, NJ, and RI haven't even opened up their ballot access processes yet, and some of them have very easy qualifications to get on. Tennessee also has absurdly easy ballot access for "independent" candidates but very hard for third parties, so Amash and Hawkins will likely both register as independents in TN.

EDIT 2: While the Libertarians have access in 36 states and counting, the Greens are far behind, with 23 states and counting.

[Skye]

Is it even for sure yet that Amash will get the Libertarian nomination? I haven't been paying attention to their internal politics. They were able to clear the field for Johnson last time, but that's no guarantee that they'll do so again for Amash.

Also, are the Libs and Greens even getting on the ballot in most states?

Libertarians are going to be on the ballot in over 40 states, though Libertarians aren't going to replicate 2016's 50 state ballot access. They already have access in 36 states and counting.



Greens are going to be a lot more restricted than in 2016.

EDIT: A number of the grey states on that map, like WA, MN, WI, NJ, and RI haven't even opened up their ballot access processes yet, and some of them have very easy qualifications to get on. Tennessee also has absurdly easy ballot access for "independent" candidates but very hard for third parties, so Amash and Hawkins will likely both register as independents in TN.

Which states are they going to miss? They are already in Oklahoma, which is the state they missed in 2012.

[The Mikado]

Is it even for sure yet that Amash will get the Libertarian nomination? I haven't been paying attention to their internal politics. They were able to clear the field for Johnson last time, but that's no guarantee that they'll do so again for Amash.

Also, are the Libs and Greens even getting on the ballot in most states?

Libertarians are going to be on the ballot in over 40 states, though Libertarians aren't going to replicate 2016's 50 state ballot access. They already have access in 36 states and counting.



Greens are going to be a lot more restricted than in 2016.

EDIT: A number of the grey states on that map, like WA, MN, WI, NJ, and RI haven't even opened up their ballot access processes yet, and some of them have very easy qualifications to get on. Tennessee also has absurdly easy ballot access for "independent" candidates but very hard for third parties, so Amash and Hawkins will likely both register as independents in TN.

Which states are they going to miss? They are already in Oklahoma, which is the state they missed in 2012.

Under the circumstances, getting 3,000 signatures in Alaska or 5,000 in Alabama by August (and really multiply those numbers by 1.5 to deal with invalid signatures) might be difficult, given how no one's gonna come close to a petitioner right now and Alaska isn't exactly big population-wise.

Arguably the biggest challenge in 10,000 signatures in Maryland, again by August.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Woah. From +4 in April to +9 now. And Monmouth is usually one of Trump's better pollsters.

Biden loses 3% though when Amash is involved which is frustrating. Even getting 5% in a poll is too much. He's going to f**k this up for everyone.

Johnson started out at 11% in March 2016, before dropping to 5% in October and only getting 3% nationally in the election. I expect Amash to get down to about 2% at best in November.

Ross Perot was also leading in spring 1992 as well.

[ProudModerate2]

If Amash wants trump to lose "Bigly," then why would he want to enter the race?
Anyway, very nice number for Biden from a 538, A+ pollster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Woah. From +4 in April to +9 now. And Monmouth is usually one of Trump's better pollsters.

Biden loses 3% though when Amash is involved which is frustrating. Even getting 5% in a poll is too much. He's going to f**k this up for everyone.

Johnson started out at 11% in March 2016, before dropping to 5% in October and only getting 3% nationally in the election. I expect Amash to get down to about 2% at best in November.

Ross Perot was also leading in spring 1992 as well.

Also in 1980, John Anderson was at or above 20% in some polls in late summer/early fall.  He finished with 7% of the vote.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It is not encouraging to see Amash bring Biden below 50%, and this is before Hawkins is included in the equation too. But still, Biden leads by seven points after considering Amash, so he has room to fall, more than Clinton did as Amash is well below where either Johnson was polling for most of 2016. We don't even know if Amash will win the Libertarian nomination. Overall, it would be better if he doesn't. If he does though and this kind of polling keeps up, it could backfire on him as becomes perceived of as a possible spoiler, it might not work out well for him. Trump may have him and Hawkins to thank if he does still manage to win though.

I guess we'll see how individual state polls go when third parties are factored in though. That may give us a more accurate view of how they'll affect the race.

[CellarDoor]

I haven't seen much discussion related to third parties actually getting on the ballot this year.  Can anyone enlighten me on the requirements (specifically those for battleground states) to get on the ballot?  I'd imagine that it is never a shoe-in for a third party to make a ballot, and that if a large amount of signatures are required it could be even more difficult this year given the current environment.

[The Mikado]

I haven't seen much discussion related to third parties actually getting on the ballot this year.  Can anyone enlighten me on the requirements (specifically those for battleground states) to get on the ballot?  I'd imagine that it is never a shoe-in for a third party to make a ballot, and that if a large amount of signatures are required it could be even more difficult this year given the current environment.

Current progress of Libertarians and Greens. The Green image is useful because it shows which states haven't even begun ballot access opening yet, some of which are quite easy (MN and WA especially). Libertarians have automatic ballot access in a lot of states due to Gary Johnson's really good 2016 performance, which is why they start off so high. This is actually especially relevant for Oklahoma, which is otherwise notoriously the hardest state in the country to get ballot access in, and will be essentially impossible for the Greens this year.

These states all require a certain number of signatures and a deadline of some sort. Arizona's deadline, for example, has already passed, and if Howie Hawkins wants to get on the ballot in AZ, he has to hope his lawsuit against AZ wins. There is precedent: Illinois and Vermont both let the Greens and Libertarians on the ballot this year after they both sued that the insanely high signature number was impossible due to COVID.

Signatures are hard almost everywhere, but the roughest are states with really small populations. Both the Libertarians and the Greens have to make the ballot in New Hampshire, for example. To make it on as Libertarians/Greens, they'd need upwards of 17,000 signatures, which is basically impossible now. They're going to try to make it on as independents, where they'll each need 3,000 signatures. New Hampshire's population of just over a million means that that's actually quite a few New Hampshireites. Tennessee is even more extreme on that front: To get a third party on the ballot in TN requires a whopping 56,000 signatures, but to get on as an independent only requires a paltry 275(!), so both Hawkins and Amash would be running in TN as Indies rather than for their party.