Will the south trend Democratic?

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

In a recent thread it was noted that wealthy counties in the south are increasingly trending Democratic, if not yet at the presidential level then at the state level, though the Atlanta suburbs did at the presidential level as well in 2016. If Democrats are able to at the very least narrow Republican margins slightly among poorer whites and increase black turnout by going after Republicans on the Medicaid expansion it seems like combining that with the trend among wealthier whites could produce a winning coalition in states like Georgia, North Carolina and Louisiana.

[clever but short]

I think it depends on your definition of the South, and whether you mean trending as an average of the margins between the individual states, or as the overall combined vote.

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes for two reasons:

1) increased minority population.

2) increased urbanization and businesses moving skilled workers to the South.  Because the South is cheap and has a generally business friendly environment + nice weather, it is an ideal place for businesses to move departments to.  A clear example of this is Amazon moving to Northern Virginia.  However, it's also the case in the Research Triangle in North Carolina and businesses in and around Atlanta, Austin, Dallas and other cities.  In some cases this is cancelled out by other people moving to the South such as elderly retirees, particularly in North Carolina and Florida.  This is why I think Georgia will be the next Virginia in the South.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, the 2020 COVID 19 virus opened up a 2008 scenario

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Yes, the 2020 COVID 19 virus opened up a 2008 scenario

Yeah, I do think there will be a backlash against governors like Kemp in 2022 when early reopening leads to an increased body count.

[Skill and Chance]

It's ambiguous.  Georgia is the only slam dunk in the near term.  They will continue to improve in Texas but it could take a couple more cycles to win anything statewide, though a 2022 Trump midterm sounds very promising. 

Beyond those 2, it's not obvious they have statewide opportunities anywhere other than NC and FL, and it's not clear which way those 2 are moving.  JBE is basically a third party unto himself and it's clear his coalition doesn't replicate in LA federal elections.

[Devils30]

The south could "trend" R if the west in CO, AZ, NM has the trend that polls seem to suggest. If Biden wins by 8.5% nationally but only 1% in GA, it will "trend" R. Of course the western states are much more elastic.