In the Dakotas, are Lutherans or Catholics more Democratic?

[I’m not Stu]

Who are more Democratic in the Dakotas?

[clever but short]

My hunch is Lutherans but I don't have any evidence for that

[Cokeland Saxton]

Depends on which type of Lutheran. I know that at the national level, Catholics tend to lean slightly Democratic, roughly in line with the US average. Of the two largest Lutheran denominations, Missouri Synod Lutherans (LCMS) are much more conservative, while the Evangelical Lutheran Church of America (ELCA) is more comparable to the Catholics, but still very slightly more conservative. Wisconsin Evangelical Lutherans (WELS) are even more conservative than LCMS. The Dakotas are much more conservative than the US as a whole, so I don't know, but I'd guess Catholics are more Democratic.

[I’m not Stu]

It's hard to tell. The Dakotas are conservative rural states.

[clever but short]

I guess the reason my hunch is Lutherans is that I have a feeling Lutherans are more college educated, but that's just conjecture on my part.

[TDAS04]

I would guess that ELCA Lutherans vote to the left of Catholics here (but not sure).  I'm pretty much certain that other Lutherans vote way to the right.

[I’m not Stu]

Of the more conservative Lutheran factions, is LCMS or WELS (even more conservative than LCMS) more common in the Dakotas?

[TDAS04]

Of the more conservative Lutheran factions, is LCMS or WELS (even more conservative than LCMS) more common in the Dakotas?

LCMS.

[I’m not Stu]

Are WELS more Republican than LCMS?

[Cokeland Saxton]

Are WELS more Republican than LCMS?

Yes

[Dr. MB]

Are WELS more Republican than LCMS?

Yes

Yeah pretty sure they don't allow women to preach. Might be the LCMS too that does that but they're still a lot less conservative than WELS.

[DINGO Joe]

Are WELS more Republican than LCMS?

Yes

Yeah pretty sure they don't allow women to preach. Might be the LCMS too that does that but they're still a lot less conservative than WELS.

ELCA is the only one that lets women in the pulpit, but yeah as an ELCAer, the WELS are like fundies while the LCMS merely have a patriarchal stick up their butt

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My anecdotal info as well as actual voting returns in certain areas shows that it's Lutherans by far.

BTW my parents' State Senator, a liberal Millennial Democrat (utterly amazed that she both got elected in 2014 and got re-elected!) goes to their Lutheran church and I'm pretty sure she's an ex-Catholic convert (she went to a Catholic university.)

[TJ in Oregon]

In my experience LCMS and WELS have almost identical views and the difference is mainly how they interact with people on the outside. WELS is much more closed about things and its members tend to be feistier. Most of the LCMS folks I know have the pretty much the same theological views but are much more open in style.

[I’m not Stu]

What makes WELS feistier?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What makes WELS feistier?

WELS is an actual hardline fundamentalist denomination. LCMS is merely conservative.

There's some smaller denominations too, like the North American Lutheran Church which is mostly conservative on social issues but permits women to be ordained and church leaders. Lutheran Congregations in Mission for Christ is another affiliation of churches that split from the ELCA over homosexuality but are less conservative and traditional in some ways and also allow women pastors and church leaders.

[Indy Texas]

I would guess the Lutherans, simply because in that area, it's often Lutheran=Scandinavian and Catholic=German, and German ancestry is one of the most reliable indicators of Republican partisanship.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would guess the Lutherans, simply because in that area, it's often Lutheran=Scandinavian and Catholic=German, and German ancestry is one of the most reliable indicators of Republican partisanship.

[RINO Tom]

Some relevant stats (all from Politico, the 2010 census or Pew):

2016 ELECTION
ND: 62.96% Trump, 27.23% Clinton
SD: 61.53% Trump, 31.74% Clinton

RELIGION - CATHOLIC vs. LUTHERAN
ND: 27% Lutheran (18% Mainline and 9% "Evangelical") and 26% Catholic
SD: 22% Catholic and 18% Lutheran (12% Mainline and 6% "Evangelical")

ANCESTRY
ND: 41.4% German, 34.5% Scandinavian
SD: 38.8% German, 19.6% Scandinavian

"MINORITY" PERCENT (INCLUDING HISPANIC)
ND: 13.6%
SD: 17.1%

So, while the more Lutheran of the two states was more Republican, it is also the Whiter state.  And, while I think that a very large number of Germans in the Dakotas are also Lutheran (German/Swedish Lutheran here!), it's pretty obvious that a tiny percent of the Scandinavians would be, suggesting that there is indeed a divide.  (By the way, that is super interesting ... most Germans in Iowa and Illinois, where I am more familiar with, seem to be Lutheran ... bunch of Bavarians up there, or?? .)

Anyway, nationwide, Mainline Lutherans (which I think should include Missouri Synod, but whatever...) are Republican leaners 44%-42%, Evangelical Lutherans (i.e., mostly Missouri Synod) are Republican leaners 58%-27% and Catholics are Democratic leaners 44%-37%.  If we just went by that, obviously, Lutherans would be a tad more Republican in the Dakotas.  Additionally, a (VERY) quick glance at some county-level maps doesn't really show the Scandinavian-heavy counties being that much less Republican than the German-heavy ones, but there is a small dropoff.

Given this, I would assume that Lutherans in the Dakotas perhaps vote a tad left of the national average, and Catholics vote to the right, likely due to what Indy Texas said.  My final answer, though, is that they actually vote pretty similarly - maybe a slight edge to the right for Dakotas Catholics.

[I’m not Stu]

I have both Swedish and German ancestry, and many other ancestry too. I am Catholic. Is the population of Scandinavian ancestry in California more dispersed between different denominations than in the Dakotas?

[RINO Tom]

I have both Swedish and German ancestry, and many other ancestry too. I am Catholic. Is the population of Scandinavian ancestry in California more dispersed between different denominations than in the Dakotas?

I wouldn't know how to answer that, but people with significant Scandinavian ancestry are a tiny minority in California, so a small sample size could lead to unreliable patterns:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Masastan/comments/arkxy8/masamans_ultimate_ethnoracial_map_of_2019/

[I’m not Stu]

I have both Swedish and German ancestry, and many other ancestry too. I am Catholic. Is the population of Scandinavian ancestry in California more dispersed between different denominations than in the Dakotas?

I wouldn't know how to answer that, but people with significant Scandinavian ancestry are a tiny minority in California, so a small sample size could lead to unreliable patterns:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Masastan/comments/arkxy8/masamans_ultimate_ethnoracial_map_of_2019/

I thought so. Does that make me an outlier?

[Lechasseur]

Given this, I would assume that Lutherans in the Dakotas perhaps vote a tad left of the national average, and Catholics vote to the right, likely due to what Indy Texas said.  My final answer, though, is that they actually vote pretty similarly - maybe a slight edge to the right for Dakotas Catholics.

This would be my guess too

[Idaho Conservative]

Lutheran areas were a bit more favorable to Obama than white Catholic areas, but also the natives tend to be catholic, which changes things a little.

[TJ in Oregon]

I have both Swedish and German ancestry, and many other ancestry too. I am Catholic. Is the population of Scandinavian ancestry in California more dispersed between different denominations than in the Dakotas?

I wouldn't know how to answer that, but people with significant Scandinavian ancestry are a tiny minority in California, so a small sample size could lead to unreliable patterns:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Masastan/comments/arkxy8/masamans_ultimate_ethnoracial_map_of_2019/

I thought so. Does that make me an outlier?

There are almost no native Catholics in Scandinavia, so presumably someone either converted or was a product of a mixed marriage at some point.