The only way Trump is at risk of winning by this narrow of a margin is if this year is a repeat of 2008.
It could be even worse. COVID-19 has killed more than 70,000 Americans already. The economy is in the toilet and will remain so until America inoculates or innovates its way into safety from COVID-19, most likely when Biden is President. Trump was lucky to be as close to having a 20% chance of winning re-election for as long a he was. Collapses happen, and the worst that I could imagine for him is a reprise of Hoover 1932 or Carter 1980.
Strange things happen in collapse elections for a Party. States that rarely go for one Party get awfully close, as happened in Massachusetts in 1980 and Indiana in 1932. Six states for Hoover in 1932 or for Carter in 1980? Who'd a thunk it four years earlier?
Great as Trump thought himself he probably expected to ed up winning all but one state as did Nixon in 1972 or Reagan in 1984. Nope!
