MT-MSU: Trump +5
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October 20, 2021, 05:10:19 AM

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  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE)
  MT-MSU: Trump +5
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Author Topic: MT-MSU: Trump +5  (Read 1021 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: May 05, 2020, 07:36:33 AM »
« edited: May 05, 2020, 07:52:12 AM by MT Treasurer »

45% Donald Trump (R, inc.)
40% Joe Biden (D)

Senate: Bullock (D) 46, Daines (R-inc.) 39

https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-news/msu-poll-bullock-leads-daines-in-senate-contest
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2020, 07:51:02 AM »

The only way Trump is at risk of winning by this narrow of a margin is if this year is a repeat of 2008.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2020, 07:51:11 AM »

Trump will win this by 9-10 points. That Senate number looks great though for Bullcok
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2020, 08:30:29 AM »

The only way Trump is at risk of winning by this narrow of a margin is if this year is a repeat of 2008.

It is shaping up to be
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2020, 09:30:14 AM »

The only way Trump is at risk of winning by this narrow of a margin is if this year is a repeat of 2008.


Even if the NPV is like 2008, the map and state margins will be different. I don't see Biden coming closer than 8%, even if Bullock and Cooney win their races.
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gracile
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2020, 09:37:14 AM »

But I was told Montana was 100% certain to swing R.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2020, 11:20:06 AM »

The only way Trump is at risk of winning by this narrow of a margin is if this year is a repeat of 2008.

It is shaping up to be
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2020, 06:06:19 PM »

Forget Kansas, this might be the sleeper state to watch. Though I don't see it flipping to Biden in the end. Trump could very well win by an absolutely humiliating margin though, and that bodes well for Bullock (and by extension a Democratic Senate) and Cooney.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2020, 07:20:01 PM »

The only way Trump is at risk of winning by this narrow of a margin is if this year is a repeat of 2008.


It could be even worse. COVID-19 has killed more than 70,000 Americans already. The economy is in the toilet and will remain so until America inoculates or innovates its way into safety from COVID-19, most likely when Biden is President. Trump was lucky to be as close to having a 20% chance of winning re-election for as long a he was. Collapses happen, and the worst that I could imagine for him is a reprise of Hoover 1932 or Carter 1980.

Strange things happen in collapse elections for a Party. States that rarely go for one Party get awfully close, as happened in Massachusetts in 1980 and Indiana in 1932. Six states for Hoover in 1932 or for Carter in 1980?  Who'd a thunk it four years earlier?

Great as Trump thought himself he probably expected to ed up winning all but one state as did Nixon in 1972 or Reagan in 1984. Nope!
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2020, 08:57:39 AM »

New Poll: Montana President by Montana State University on 2020-04-27

Summary: D: 40%, R: 45%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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