Iowa-PPP: Trump +2

[GeorgiaModerate]

For the person who says PPP only releases polls with Democrats leading:

Iowa: PPP, April 30-May 1, 1222 voters

Trump 48
Biden 46

Senate: Ernst 43, Greenfield 42

Trump approval: 49/47

[libertpaulian]

Lean R.

[Bidenworth2020]

Likely R for me still, but I find it kind of interesting that Ernst is underperforming Trump, fairly significantly too in terms raw % and even in raw margin.

[wbrocks67]

Not bad for Biden, represents a big swing from 2016, and the biggest age block that is undecided is 18-29 year olds, so assuming that many of them go to Biden, it's probably closer to tied in this poll.

Oof at those #s for Joni Ernst.

[wbrocks67]

This also lines up almost *exactly* with Civiqs tracking that has Trump's approval at -1 in Iowa

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[Stranger in a strange land]

On the bright side, if he's only winning IA (which he won by 10 in 2016) by 2, he's almost certainly losing WI & MI.

[JRP1994]

Huh. Maybe, just maybe, the JHK Forecast wasn't overly-weighted towards 2012 when it had Iowa as Trump +3 and Leans R.

[OneJ]

Nice that we got an Iowa poll not long after OH ones.

On the bright side, if he's only winning IA (which he won by 10 in 2016) by 2, he's almost certainly losing WI & MI.

I'm also inclined to think that Ohio is likely pretty competitive at this point if this poll is anywhere close to being right.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R, close to Likely R.

Biden should focus on the big 3, FL, AZ and NC. If any, OH is at least as competitive as IA, but a bigger prize. Same with GA and TX.

[Farmlands]

Yeah, I didn't want to admit it, but Iowa is not going back to the Democrats this election. No polls so far have shown any indication of it, and this firm is pretty friendly towards the party. The anger of farmers towards the GOP is seemingly gone and the state should start to consistently vote Republicans in, if trends are any good indication.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Didnt MT Treasurer say that Iowa would be the last state to flip after OH and TX? No it's not, tossup

[JRP1994]

Yeah, I didn't want to admit it, but Iowa is not going back to the Democrats this election. No polls so far have shown any indication of it, and this firm is pretty friendly towards the party. The anger of farmers towards the GOP is seemingly gone and the state should start to consistently vote Republicans in, if trends are any good indication.

PPP (4/30 to 5/1): Trump +2%
DMR (3/2 to 3/5): Trump +10%
NYT/Siena (1/20 to 1/23): Trump +2%
PPP (12/29 to 12/31): Trump +3%
Emerson (12/7 to 12/10): Trump +4%

DMR is the gold standard, but they're also an outlier among polls taken in the last 5 months.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I didn't want to admit it, but Iowa is not going back to the Democrats this election. No polls so far have shown any indication of it, and this firm is pretty friendly towards the party. The anger of farmers towards the GOP is seemingly gone and the state should start to consistently vote Republicans in, if trends are any good indication.

PPP has so far been in line with many other polls for many other states. This nonsense about them being a "Dem friendly pollster" is not based in reality.

[Pollster]

Yeah, I didn't want to admit it, but Iowa is not going back to the Democrats this election. No polls so far have shown any indication of it, and this firm is pretty friendly towards the party. The anger of farmers towards the GOP is seemingly gone and the state should start to consistently vote Republicans in, if trends are any good indication.

PPP (4/30 to 5/1): Trump +2%
DMR (3/2 to 3/5): Trump +10%
NYT/Siena (1/20 to 1/23): Trump +2%
PPP (12/29 to 12/31): Trump +3%
Emerson (12/7 to 12/10): Trump +4%

DMR is the gold standard, but they're also an outlier among polls taken in the last 5 months.

The DMR poll was taken at the near peak of Democratic division, and right around when the party was getting ready to consolidate behind the guy who Iowa Democrats soundly rejected. It was probably accurate at the time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Voters don't believe Biden is a sexist, but he did touch females inappropriately. KS is very similar to IA, both trended Dem in 2018, Reynolds only won by 3 points while Kelly won by a hair. CO plus KS or IA, without Va, which is a Dem state, gives Dems 272

[ProudModerate2]

Interesting.
Need to see more poll numbers for this state before getting too excited.
trump is going to have a hell of a time defending all these states (too many), yet alone trying to make inroads into any new states to win.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Iowa President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-05-01

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Awaiting further confirmation, but I do wonder if the DSCC is finding similar results in its internals and if that might be why they've suddenly started spending more on IA's Senate race.

[MT Treasurer]

Definitely the least likely Obama/Trump state to flip back to the Democrats this year. And no, it’s not flipping before GA/TX/NC either.

Didnt MT Treasurer say that Iowa would be the last state to flip after OH and TX?

^Exactly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Definitely the least likely Obama/Trump state to flip back to the Democrats this year. And no, it’s not flipping before GA/TX/NC either.

Didnt MT Treasurer say that Iowa would be the last state to flip after OH and TX?

^Exactly.

I agree with this and would be really surprised if Biden actually wins Iowa.  But I think the main takeaway is similar to a point that was recently made about Texas; if Biden is within the MoE in Iowa, then Trump is in big trouble nationally.

[Xing]

Probably still too friendly to Democrats, but LOL at the idea that Ernst is going to massively overperform Trump.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If his approval is still positive here no way he loses

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Time to let this dream die.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst won in 2014 due to Brandstand's popularity and Kim Reynolds too, Grassley helped Trump win IA in 2016, due to his long tenure in the Senate. Ernst is a Freshman and Dems have 3/4 Congressional seats in IA and on way to a 4th, King can lose

[NOVA Green]

One of the interesting questions in the poll was:

Q5 Which of the following best represents your
position on meat packing plants during the
coronavirus- they should be reopened now to
ensure there’s no disruption to the national
food supply, or they should remain closed until
local health officials deem it safe for workers to
return?
 36%
Think they should be reopened now to
ensure there’s no disruption to the national
food supply .....................................................
 53%
Think they should remain closed until local
health officials deem it safe for workers to
return ..............................................................
Not sure 11%

If we look at some the places hit hardest with the COVID-19 infestation in the meat packing plants in Iowa:

Black Hawk County: (50-43 HRC> Trump) vs (59-39 Obama>Romney)   +13% R Swing '12>'16
Tama County:          (57-37 Trump>HRC) vs  (53-45 Obama>Romney)   +28% R Swing '12>'16
Louisa County:         (61-33 Trump>HRC) vs  (49*-49 Obama>Romney)  +28% R Swing '12>'16

Additionally, there has been a major outbreak in Dakota County, Nebraska right across the river from river from Woodbury County, Iowa (Sioux City)....

All of these incidents have been widely reported in all of the local Iowa Metro Media Markets....

At a broader level the economic impact for Hog Farmers has been especially significant, many of whom had already seen decreased demand because of the Trump Administration's "Trade War with China", and the recent impact from a Hog Processing Plant in Sioux Falls, South Dakota received a fair amount of local coverage.

Although many folks (not necessarily on Atlas) tend to think of Iowa as "just another Farm State", the reality is much more complex with skilled MFG workers in certain sectors (Auto, Heavy Eqpt, etc), less skilled MFG workers in others (such as meat processing), an extremely educated population, with a significant amount of both Undergrad and Grad Students in a plethora of both Private and Public Colleges and Universities.

The Corn & Soybean Farms focused on livestock agricultural exports to China (or other countries) were never going to alone be an issue, since it is possible to weather a storm term storm (assuming that that doesn't cause a longer-term loss of global market share), but once you combine that with the drying up of the domestic supply-chain for pigs as a result of consolidation and increasingly packed working conditions for workers that process the meat, combined with massive outbreaks in the factories, immediately threatens the livelihoods of small family-farmers in Iowa.

Typically in many of these farms you might run about 40-80 acres where you alternate the corn/soybeans (Which is relatively machine-intensive), and have hogs that feed off the food-stock on your farm, which you then end up then selling in combination with other small farmers (possibly members of historical Farmer Co-Ops or Grange Halls, etc) to the larger meat-packing plants, so you don't get screwed over (excuse my language) on pricing or bid against each other....

Maybe I'm reading way to much into all of this, but I suspect that both Trump & Ernst are taking a bit of a hit on this....