AL-SEN - Democrats already quietly conceding the race

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/03/senate-democrats-alabama-doug-jones-229073

Pretty amazing to see the party outright give up on an incumbent. They threw millions of dollars at AR/LA in 2014 even though they were hopeless causes, but Jones? Appears they won't even try lol.

[skbl17]

I don't blame them tbh.

The conditions that allowed Jones to narrowly win in 2017 are no longer there: Roy Moore is not the GOP nominee and the turnout disparity that existed in that election will not exist this year.

There's nothing else competitive in Alabama either. No House seats are competitive, Trump will win the state walking away, and the state legislature has Republican supermajorities in both chambers - supermajorities that I don't see the Dems dislodging anytime soon.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm glad. AL really is a lost cause. Only way Jones has a chance is if the R vote gets split. Dems should just take the L here and focus more money on races like NC, ME, MT

[Lognog]

Pretty amazing to see the party outright give up on an incumbent. They threw millions of dollars at AR/LA in 2014 even though they were hopeless causes, but Jones? Appears they won't even try lol.

And throwing all that money in AR and LA turned out to be a huge mistake, glad the dems aren't planning on throwing money away again

[Frodo]

Kentucky and South Carolina are much better targets -particularly Kentucky.  

[Sir Mohamed]

United States Attorney General Gordon Douglas Jones.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dem Congressional candidates and Biden arent campaigning in AL, period, unlike LA in 2008, where Landrieu had won tough races.

Dems path is still AZ, CO, ME and NC for a 50/50 split

[Anna Komnene]

If you read the article, you'll see that everything is pretty much proceeding as normal. Doug Jones has 8 million CoH, which is a massive amount of money to spend in an Alabama race. Aside from the 2017 special, it's just as much as any Republican has spent there in any race in recent memory. A brief look at his filings show that he generally raises over half of his money from small donors, so he is not really reliant on the help of big donors. It also notes that because Alabama is not a battleground in the presidential race, they can easily buy up cheap ads later on and that national Republicans haven't invested in the race either.

And actually the national democrats did pretty much the same thing in the special election. News that a Democratic PAC supported Jones was actually a pre-election day scandal. Running campaigns in conservative states is tricky business. As I recall, Jones' 2017 campaign manager talked about having to redirect "well-intentioned yankees" who wanted to go knocking on doors during the campaign. So while I'm sure there will be support at some point, it will probably be quiet. Jones' team has always had a conscious strategy to be somewhat removed from the national Dems in the public eye.

None of this is to say that I think Jones has a chance. He almost definitely doesn't, but it won't be because he doesn't have the resources to run a quality campaign.

[smoltchanov]

If you read the article, you'll see that everything is pretty much proceeding as normal. Doug Jones has 8 million CoH, which is a massive amount of money to spend in an Alabama race. Aside from the 2018 special, it's just as much as any Republican has spent there in any race in recent memory. A brief look at his filings show that he generally raises over half of his money from small donors, so he is not really reliant on the help of big donors. It also notes that because Alabama is not a battleground in the presidential race, they can easily buy up cheap ads later on and that national Republicans haven't invested in the race either.

And actually the national democrats did pretty much the same thing in the special election. News that a Democratic PAC supported Jones was actually a pre-election day scandal. Running campaigns in conservative states is tricky business. As I recall, Jones' 2018 campaign manager talked about having to redirect "well-intentioned yankees" who wanted to go knocking on doors during the campaign. So while I'm sure there will be support at some point, it will probably be quiet. Jones' team has always had a conscious strategy to be somewhat removed from the national Dems in the public eye.

None of this is to say that I think Jones has a chance. He almost definitely doesn't, but it won't be because he doesn't have the resources to run a quality campaign.

Fully agree. He will run competent quality campaign and get decent percentage, but - still lose. National politics is too polarized now, and Alabama - too conservative for any other outcome. It's still posiible for extremely good candidate (JBE, Baker, Phil Scott) to win governorship of state, which otherwise strongly leans to other party, but - not Senate (and, probably, not House too) seat.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/03/senate-democrats-alabama-doug-jones-229073

Pretty amazing to see the party outright give up on an incumbent. They threw millions of dollars at AR/LA in 2014 even though they were hopeless causes, but Jones? Appears they won't even try lol.

Tbf 2014 was different.

Especially in Louisiana, Landrieu was a longtime incumbent who had a proven track record of winning previously. And in 2014, unlike in 2020, the Democrats really didn't have any pick-up opportunities, the idea that year was to protect their incumbents.

[Blair]

as the article notes the DSCC didn't even offically spend any TV ad in 2017- but did it through a super-pac of a super-pac.

They'll probaly help with some staffing, outreach and digital but there's no point flushing millions of dollars in TV ads down the toilet.

[SnowLabrador]

Good. We have no chance there, and every dollar spent in Alabama is a dollar that isn't spent on a more winnable race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems dont have any Congressional races there

[Storr]

The closest parallel I could think of was 2006 Rhode Island, but the margin of loss for the incumbent will be much greater in Alabama.

[Xing]

They should. Jones is going to lose and badly, no sense spending millions that could be spent in AZ/GA/ME/MT/NC so that he can lose by 14 instead of 17.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS, ME, MT and NC are now winnable

Dems can win these

[QAnonKelly]

This is the right call. This is the only seat to really defend. Make the GOP play defense.

[morgieb]

This is the right call. This is the only seat to really defend. Make the GOP play defense.

Michigan?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hegar and Jones arent gonna win, Hegar is trailing big to Cornyn. DEMS can win SC, KY, AK, GA and IA as wave insurance

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/03/senate-democrats-alabama-doug-jones-229073

Pretty amazing to see the party outright give up on an incumbent. They threw millions of dollars at AR/LA in 2014 even though they were hopeless causes, but Jones? Appears they won't even try lol.

Barely beating a scandalized opponent in an opposite party state almost always means you lose next time against a mainstream opponent.  Even beating the scandalized opponent by double digits isn't a guarantee (McCaskill still lost, JBE only won by 3).

[QAnonKelly]

This is the right call. This is the only seat to really defend. Make the GOP play defense.

Michigan?

At this point, I don’t see it as a defensive seat but that could change.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

United States Attorney General Gordon Douglas Jones.

Douglas Jones moves from a OG to AG. He could be the one who overseas Trump's indictment.

[Pericles]

United States Attorney General Gordon Douglas Jones.

Douglas Jones moves from a OG to AG. He could be the one who overseas Trump's indictment.

That sounds amazing!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Jones himself is a fundraising powerhouse. It was probably a mutual agreement.

[Badger]

Heartbreaking, but necessary. I agree he would make a great AG under Biden though