Will Lee Carter vote in favor of the Democratic gerrymander?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He's a maverick who often criticizes his own party but I can't see him not voting party line here.

[lfromnj]

What do you mean Democrat gerrymander?
Theres an independent commission on the ballot which effectively gives the VA supreme court(R's) control of the map.  Unless if Democrats actively campaign against it, it almost certainly passes.
Tbh thinking about it, an independent commission was gonna happen anyway as VA d's didn't really have the power to gerrymander as VA R's held the state supreme court(If hacks like Anita Earls are willing to strike down an R gerrymander in NC with no constitutional basis,then VA R hacks could do it too)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why wouldn't he?

[Gracile]

Why wouldn't he?

^This.

Carter breaks with the caucus occasionally, but on important votes like this, he's basically a partisan Democrat.

[lfromnj]

Again there is no Democrat gerrymander unless the commision ballot fails,the commision probably results in a light GOP gerrymander(think 5 D -6 R) Carter did vote against the commision which effectively means a heavy D gerrymander for 2020(at the very least a 7-4)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Again there is no Democrat gerrymander unless the commision ballot fails,the commision probably results in a light GOP gerrymander(think 5 D -6 R) Carter did vote against the commision which effectively means a heavy D gerrymander for 2020(at the very least a 7-4)

Uh, in Virginia, a fair map is 7D-4R, a heavy D gerrymander is 9D-2R, and any map which gives Republicans a majority of seats is a very heavy R gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

Please show me a 7-4 fair map with no bipartisan incumbency, VA 2nd at the very least would still tilt R. You will have 2 Inner NOVA districts and starting from there you can have one likely D  and one tilt R if you split outer NOVA or one Safe and then likely R so NOVA doesn't deserve 4 districts.A 7-4 at the very least is a bipartisan gerrymander

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Please show me a 7-4 fair map with no bipartisan incumbency, VA 2nd at the very least would still tilt R. You will have 2 Inner NOVA districts and starting from there you can have one likely D  and one tilt R if you split outer NOVA or one Safe and then likely R so NOVA doesn't deserve 4 districts.

Don't have time to do a VA map right now, but basically:

VA-01: Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax inside the Beltway.  (Safe D)
VA-02: Loudon, Reston, Tysons, Vienna. (Safe D)
VA-03: Springfield, Chantilly, Manassas, Prince William. (Safe D)
VA-04: Fredericksburg, Tidewater. (Safe R)
VA-05: Charlottesville, Henrico, white Richmond. (Safe D)
VA-06: Shenandoah Valley. (Safe R)
VA-07: Roanoke, Bristol. (Safe R)
VA-08: Lynchburg, Danvile.(Safe R)
VA 09: Southside, black Richmond VRA (Safe D)
VA-10: Hampton Roads VRA (Safe D)
Va-11: Delmarva, Virginia Beach, Norfolk. (Lean D)

A light D gerry (8-3) kills the Fredricksburg/Tidewater seat in favor of 3 wedges in NoVa outside the beltway. A heavy D gerry (9-2) carves up the southeast and puts Roanoke, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, and Henrico in a seat. A light R gerry (6-5) makes the Virginia Beach seat Republican and a heavy R gerry (5-6) splits out white Richmond into the rurals.

[lfromnj]

Please show me a 7-4 fair map with no bipartisan incumbency, VA 2nd at the very least would still tilt R. You will have 2 Inner NOVA districts and starting from there you can have one likely D  and one tilt R if you split outer NOVA or one Safe and then likely R so NOVA doesn't deserve 4 districts.

Don't have time to do a VA map right now, but basically:

VA-01: Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax inside the Beltway.  (Safe D)
VA-02: Loudon, Reston, Tysons, Vienna. (Safe D)
VA-03: Springfield, Chantilly, Manassas, Prince William. (Safe D)
VA-04: Fredericksburg, Tidewater. (Safe R)
VA-05: Charlottesville, Henrico, white Richmond. (Safe D)
VA-06: Shenandoah Valley. (Safe R)
VA-07: Roanoke, Bristol. (Safe R)
VA-08: Lynchburg, Danvile.(Safe R)
VA 09: Southside, black Richmond VRA (Safe D)
VA-10: Hampton Roads VRA (Safe D)
Va-11: Delmarva, Virginia Beach, Norfolk. (Lean D)

A light D gerry (8-3) kills the Fredricksburg/Tidewater seat in favor of 3 wedges in NoVa outside the beltway. A heavy D gerry (9-2) carves up the southeast and puts Roanoke, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, and Henrico in a seat. A light R gerry (6-5) makes the Virginia Beach seat Republican and a heavy R gerry (5-6) splits out white Richmond into the rurals.

And splitting Richmond isn't a bipartisan Gerrymander and then bringing it to Charlottesville? And putting Norfolk instead of Cheasapke city with VA beach is also a bit of a chip push there.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Please show me a 7-4 fair map with no bipartisan incumbency, VA 2nd at the very least would still tilt R. You will have 2 Inner NOVA districts and starting from there you can have one likely D  and one tilt R if you split outer NOVA or one Safe and then likely R so NOVA doesn't deserve 4 districts.

Don't have time to do a VA map right now, but basically:

VA-01: Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax inside the Beltway.  (Safe D)
VA-02: Loudon, Reston, Tysons, Vienna. (Safe D)
VA-03: Springfield, Chantilly, Manassas, Prince William. (Safe D)
VA-04: Fredericksburg, Tidewater. (Safe R)
VA-05: Charlottesville, Henrico, white Richmond. (Safe D)
VA-06: Shenandoah Valley. (Safe R)
VA-07: Roanoke, Bristol. (Safe R)
VA-08: Lynchburg, Danvile.(Safe R)
VA 09: Southside, black Richmond VRA (Safe D)
VA-10: Hampton Roads VRA (Safe D)
Va-11: Delmarva, Virginia Beach, Norfolk. (Lean D)

A light D gerry (8-3) kills the Fredricksburg/Tidewater seat in favor of 3 wedges in NoVa outside the beltway. A heavy D gerry (9-2) carves up the southeast and puts Roanoke, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, and Henrico in a seat. A light R gerry (6-5) makes the Virginia Beach seat Republican and a heavy R gerry (5-6) splits out white Richmond into the rurals.

And splitting Richmond isn't a bipartisan Gerrymander and then bringing it to Charlottesville? And putting Norfolk instead of Cheasapke city with VA beach is also a bit of a chip push there.

Don't you have to split Richmond for VRA purposes? Yeah, I guess Charlottesville is a bit of a stretch but assuming you keep white Richmond and Henrico together and pair it with random rurals, you'll still probably get a lean R district. I think Norfolk-Virignia Beach is a perfectly fair pairing (it seems to have more metropolitan contiguity than Chesapeake-Virginia Beach. Regardless, a 6-5 map that limits Dems to a seat in Richmond, a seat in Hampton Roads, and 3 seats in NoVa seems pretty extreme to me. Is it even possible to push a Virginia gerry any further than that and draw a 7R-4D map?

[lfromnj]

Please show me a 7-4 fair map with no bipartisan incumbency, VA 2nd at the very least would still tilt R. You will have 2 Inner NOVA districts and starting from there you can have one likely D  and one tilt R if you split outer NOVA or one Safe and then likely R so NOVA doesn't deserve 4 districts.

Don't have time to do a VA map right now, but basically:

VA-01: Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax inside the Beltway.  (Safe D)
VA-02: Loudon, Reston, Tysons, Vienna. (Safe D)
VA-03: Springfield, Chantilly, Manassas, Prince William. (Safe D)
VA-04: Fredericksburg, Tidewater. (Safe R)
VA-05: Charlottesville, Henrico, white Richmond. (Safe D)
VA-06: Shenandoah Valley. (Safe R)
VA-07: Roanoke, Bristol. (Safe R)
VA-08: Lynchburg, Danvile.(Safe R)
VA 09: Southside, black Richmond VRA (Safe D)
VA-10: Hampton Roads VRA (Safe D)
Va-11: Delmarva, Virginia Beach, Norfolk. (Lean D)

A light D gerry (8-3) kills the Fredricksburg/Tidewater seat in favor of 3 wedges in NoVa outside the beltway. A heavy D gerry (9-2) carves up the southeast and puts Roanoke, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, and Henrico in a seat. A light R gerry (6-5) makes the Virginia Beach seat Republican and a heavy R gerry (5-6) splits out white Richmond into the rurals.

And splitting Richmond isn't a bipartisan Gerrymander and then bringing it to Charlottesville? And putting Norfolk instead of Cheasapke city with VA beach is also a bit of a chip push there.

Don't you have to split Richmond for VRA purposes? Yeah, I guess Charlottesville is a bit of a stretch but assuming you keep white Richmond and Henrico together and pair it with random rurals, you'll still probably get a lean R district. I think Norfolk-Virignia Beach is a perfectly fair pairing (it seems to have more metropolitan contiguity than Chesapeake-Virginia Beach. Regardless, a 6-5 map that limits Dems to a seat in Richmond, a seat in Hampton Roads, and 3 seats in NoVa seems pretty extreme to me. Is it even possible to push a Virginia gerry any further than that and draw a 7R-4D map?

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722


I had a map but deleted but Oryx made a map here, and I don't think its legally possible anymore for a 7-4 due to the VRA problems but as you can see here VA 7th is made safe R quite cleanly. VA 2 is a bit messier but it could probably be made around Trump +5 to 6 points without any of the mess ,check the VA redistricting thread for my now deleted map which is quite similar.
All it really takes for a relatively secure 5 D 6 R is basically making some decisions for VA 7th and VA 2nd that shift it a few points R. I obviously don't support a Safe 5 D 6R map but Im not opposed to a map with 5 Clinton and 6 Trump districts

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Please show me a 7-4 fair map with no bipartisan incumbency, VA 2nd at the very least would still tilt R. You will have 2 Inner NOVA districts and starting from there you can have one likely D  and one tilt R if you split outer NOVA or one Safe and then likely R so NOVA doesn't deserve 4 districts.

Don't have time to do a VA map right now, but basically:

VA-01: Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax inside the Beltway.  (Safe D)
VA-02: Loudon, Reston, Tysons, Vienna. (Safe D)
VA-03: Springfield, Chantilly, Manassas, Prince William. (Safe D)
VA-04: Fredericksburg, Tidewater. (Safe R)
VA-05: Charlottesville, Henrico, white Richmond. (Safe D)
VA-06: Shenandoah Valley. (Safe R)
VA-07: Roanoke, Bristol. (Safe R)
VA-08: Lynchburg, Danvile.(Safe R)
VA 09: Southside, black Richmond VRA (Safe D)
VA-10: Hampton Roads VRA (Safe D)
Va-11: Delmarva, Virginia Beach, Norfolk. (Lean D)

A light D gerry (8-3) kills the Fredricksburg/Tidewater seat in favor of 3 wedges in NoVa outside the beltway. A heavy D gerry (9-2) carves up the southeast and puts Roanoke, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, and Henrico in a seat. A light R gerry (6-5) makes the Virginia Beach seat Republican and a heavy R gerry (5-6) splits out white Richmond into the rurals.

And splitting Richmond isn't a bipartisan Gerrymander and then bringing it to Charlottesville? And putting Norfolk instead of Cheasapke city with VA beach is also a bit of a chip push there.

Don't you have to split Richmond for VRA purposes? Yeah, I guess Charlottesville is a bit of a stretch but assuming you keep white Richmond and Henrico together and pair it with random rurals, you'll still probably get a lean R district. I think Norfolk-Virignia Beach is a perfectly fair pairing (it seems to have more metropolitan contiguity than Chesapeake-Virginia Beach. Regardless, a 6-5 map that limits Dems to a seat in Richmond, a seat in Hampton Roads, and 3 seats in NoVa seems pretty extreme to me. Is it even possible to push a Virginia gerry any further than that and draw a 7R-4D map?

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722


I had a map but deleted but Oryx made a map here, and I don't think its legally possible anymore for a 7-4 due to the VRA problems but as you can see here VA 7th is made safe R quite cleanly. VA 2 is a bit messier but it could probably be made around Trump +5 to 6 points without any of the risk, check the VA redistricting thread for my now deleted map which is quite similar.
All it really takes for a relatively secure 5 D 6 R is basicaly making some decisions for VA 7th and VA 2nd that shift it a few points R.

Fair enough, although I really doubt the 7th will hold through the decade and the 1st is risky. You have to get quite a bit uglier if you want to get 6 safe R seats.

[lfromnj]

Please show me a 7-4 fair map with no bipartisan incumbency, VA 2nd at the very least would still tilt R. You will have 2 Inner NOVA districts and starting from there you can have one likely D  and one tilt R if you split outer NOVA or one Safe and then likely R so NOVA doesn't deserve 4 districts.

Don't have time to do a VA map right now, but basically:

VA-01: Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax inside the Beltway.  (Safe D)
VA-02: Loudon, Reston, Tysons, Vienna. (Safe D)
VA-03: Springfield, Chantilly, Manassas, Prince William. (Safe D)
VA-04: Fredericksburg, Tidewater. (Safe R)
VA-05: Charlottesville, Henrico, white Richmond. (Safe D)
VA-06: Shenandoah Valley. (Safe R)
VA-07: Roanoke, Bristol. (Safe R)
VA-08: Lynchburg, Danvile.(Safe R)
VA 09: Southside, black Richmond VRA (Safe D)
VA-10: Hampton Roads VRA (Safe D)
Va-11: Delmarva, Virginia Beach, Norfolk. (Lean D)

A light D gerry (8-3) kills the Fredricksburg/Tidewater seat in favor of 3 wedges in NoVa outside the beltway. A heavy D gerry (9-2) carves up the southeast and puts Roanoke, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, and Henrico in a seat. A light R gerry (6-5) makes the Virginia Beach seat Republican and a heavy R gerry (5-6) splits out white Richmond into the rurals.

And splitting Richmond isn't a bipartisan Gerrymander and then bringing it to Charlottesville? And putting Norfolk instead of Cheasapke city with VA beach is also a bit of a chip push there.

Don't you have to split Richmond for VRA purposes? Yeah, I guess Charlottesville is a bit of a stretch but assuming you keep white Richmond and Henrico together and pair it with random rurals, you'll still probably get a lean R district. I think Norfolk-Virignia Beach is a perfectly fair pairing (it seems to have more metropolitan contiguity than Chesapeake-Virginia Beach. Regardless, a 6-5 map that limits Dems to a seat in Richmond, a seat in Hampton Roads, and 3 seats in NoVa seems pretty extreme to me. Is it even possible to push a Virginia gerry any further than that and draw a 7R-4D map?

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722


I had a map but deleted but Oryx made a map here, and I don't think its legally possible anymore for a 7-4 due to the VRA problems but as you can see here VA 7th is made safe R quite cleanly. VA 2 is a bit messier but it could probably be made around Trump +5 to 6 points without any of the risk, check the VA redistricting thread for my now deleted map which is quite similar.
All it really takes for a relatively secure 5 D 6 R is basicaly making some decisions for VA 7th and VA 2nd that shift it a few points R.

Fair enough, although I really doubt the 7th will hold through the decade and the 1st is risky. You have to get quite a bit uglier if you want to get 6 safe R seats.

This map isn't fair I will admit but the GOP court could absolutely pass as it reasonably passes parts of a cleanness test(fix some of NOVA and VA 2 of course)

[lfromnj]

Blairite

Here's  a possible competetive "fair map"
Its a bit ugly


Drew it before but updated it for 2018 map instead of 2016.
Trump won 6 districts here but D's would have probably won 8 districts in 2018 and could with 2 more years of growth carry a potential 9th in a mega wave year with the blue district,(it would lose the most extended county)

The blue district is mostly ugly because I wanted to put Hanover county with Suburban Richmond which is Trump +3. Its easy enough to make the remainder NOVA district much cleaner. It was basically shape vs COI.

The split of Loudoun actually looks bad but in reality it actually makes some sense as Western Loudoun is much more mountainous than Eastern.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catoctin_County,_Virginia

Even makes a college district Thats Trump +2 and trending relatively D(from Obama +1 in 2008)

Not my favorite map as it doesn't fully respect COI's but makes a competitive district in Western Virginia is a nice pro

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Blairite

Here's  a possible competetive "fair map"
Its a bit ugly


Drew it before but updated it for 2018 map instead of 2016.
Trump won 6 districts here but D's would have probably won 8 districts in 2018 and could with 2 more years of growth carry a potential 9th in a mega wave year with the blue district,(it would lose the most extended county)

The blue district is mostly ugly because I wanted to put Hanover county with Suburban Richmond which is Trump +3. Its easy enough to make the remainder NOVA district much cleaner. It was basically shape vs COI.

The split of Loudoun actually looks bad but in reality it actually makes some sense as Western Loudoun is much more mountainous than Eastern.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catoctin_County,_Virginia

Even makes a college district Thats Trump +2 and trending relatively D(from Obama +1 in 2008)

Not my favorite map as it doesn't fully respect COI's but makes a competitive district in Western Virginia is a nice pro

What is the PVI of the college district?

[lfromnj]

Blairite

Here's  a possible competetive "fair map"
Its a bit ugly


Drew it before but updated it for 2018 map instead of 2016.
Trump won 6 districts here but D's would have probably won 8 districts in 2018 and could with 2 more years of growth carry a potential 9th in a mega wave year with the blue district,(it would lose the most extended county)

The blue district is mostly ugly because I wanted to put Hanover county with Suburban Richmond which is Trump +3. Its easy enough to make the remainder NOVA district much cleaner. It was basically shape vs COI.

The split of Loudoun actually looks bad but in reality it actually makes some sense as Western Loudoun is much more mountainous than Eastern.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catoctin_County,_Virginia

Even makes a college district Thats Trump +2 and trending relatively D(from Obama +1 in 2008)

Not my favorite map as it doesn't fully respect COI's but makes a competitive district in Western Virginia is a nice pro

What is the PVI of the college district?

R+3.11, so probably around Romney +3 or 4?


Heres a cleaner blue district, this makes it Safe R and cleaner but also pushes VA 7th to Trump +0.6. According to wikipedia if I add up the 4 big colleges(including Liberty) there are almost 120k people either as a student or staff member !. Quite a smart district to make especially considering it sticks to Western VA and mostly follows whole counties. I could probably clean up the Richmond arm too.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Blairite

Here's  a possible competetive "fair map"
Its a bit ugly


Drew it before but updated it for 2018 map instead of 2016.
Trump won 6 districts here but D's would have probably won 8 districts in 2018 and could with 2 more years of growth carry a potential 9th in a mega wave year with the blue district,(it would lose the most extended county)

The blue district is mostly ugly because I wanted to put Hanover county with Suburban Richmond which is Trump +3. Its easy enough to make the remainder NOVA district much cleaner. It was basically shape vs COI.

The split of Loudoun actually looks bad but in reality it actually makes some sense as Western Loudoun is much more mountainous than Eastern.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catoctin_County,_Virginia

Even makes a college district Thats Trump +2 and trending relatively D(from Obama +1 in 2008)

Not my favorite map as it doesn't fully respect COI's but makes a competitive district in Western Virginia is a nice pro

What is the PVI of the college district?

R+3.11, so probably around Romney +3 or 4?


Heres a cleaner blue district, this makes it Safe R and cleaner but also pushes VA 7th to Trump +0.6. According to wikipedia if I add up the 4 big colleges(including Liberty) there are almost 120k people either as a student or staff member !. Quite a smart district to make especially considering it sticks to Western VA and mostly follows whole counties. I could probably clean up the Richmond arm too.

This map is also quite elegant. Good work!
I have no major quibbles with it.

[lfromnj]

So yeah 6 trump districts but I don't think anyone who actually looks at the communities involved and the actual partisan makeup of the districts unfair. It is a bit ugly I admit but I tried my best to respect the COI's involved while maximizing competition. Sadly its a bipartisan gerrymander instead or a GOP tilting gerrymander that will end up happening

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Blairite

Here's  a possible competetive "fair map"
Its a bit ugly


Drew it before but updated it for 2018 map instead of 2016.
Trump won 6 districts here but D's would have probably won 8 districts in 2018 and could with 2 more years of growth carry a potential 9th in a mega wave year with the blue district,(it would lose the most extended county)

The blue district is mostly ugly because I wanted to put Hanover county with Suburban Richmond which is Trump +3. Its easy enough to make the remainder NOVA district much cleaner. It was basically shape vs COI.

The split of Loudoun actually looks bad but in reality it actually makes some sense as Western Loudoun is much more mountainous than Eastern.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catoctin_County,_Virginia

Even makes a college district Thats Trump +2 and trending relatively D(from Obama +1 in 2008)

Not my favorite map as it doesn't fully respect COI's but makes a competitive district in Western Virginia is a nice pro

I like it well enough. I generally prefer wedges to rings in NoVa (Loudon and PWC are generally more connected to Fairfax than to eachother), but definitely a cool concept.