Biden's +6 Pop vote victory
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 09:29:05 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Biden's +6 Pop vote victory
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Biden's +6 Pop vote victory  (Read 449 times)
American2020
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,499
Côte d'Ivoire


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 03, 2020, 01:03:23 PM »

What'll be the map if Biden wins the popular vote +6?

Discuss.

Mine:



Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,740


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2020, 01:06:35 PM »

Give NE-2 to Biden and ME-2 to Trump
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2020, 01:11:21 PM »

Well, just adding about 4 points to Hillary’s victory in 2016 across the board flips MI, PA, WI, FL, NE-02, AZ, and NC. In the order of closest to least close. So your map is on the right track, but add NE-02.

It almost flips Georgia as well, so if we assume that continues to trend towards the Dems by at least a point or two more than the rest of the country, it might well flip in this scenario too. Then there’s Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. If they continue to trend (TX) or reverse trend (OH/IA) towards the Dems at a greater rate than the country as a whole, they could possibly flip as well, though it’s less likely.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2020, 01:36:39 PM »


This, and GA would probably go for Biden.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,774


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2020, 01:45:17 PM »


This, and GA would probably go for Biden.
Logged
Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,200
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2020, 02:52:34 PM »

It is crazy to think that Ohio and Iowa aren't in play unless it's a landslide victory for Biden.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,544
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2020, 03:10:10 PM »

Logged
Nightcore Nationalist
Okthisisnotepic.
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,827


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2020, 04:14:49 PM »

What'll be the map if Biden wins the popular vote +6?

Discuss.

Mine:



Yours, but GA would go Biden, too.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,181


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2020, 06:50:04 PM »

It's really hard to predict because so much of the national margin is impacted by a handful of states.  A massive trend among minority and suburban voters for instance in Texas, California, and New York could push Biden to a 6 point margin.  On the other hand, a small but nationwide trend of white suburban voters could push Biden to a 6 point margin.  I think the latter seems more likely, in which case even Ohio could flip. 
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.038 seconds with 12 queries.