Bold Predictions for Unexpected Lean/Likely State Flips

[ElectionWatcher25]

In 2016, this "unexpected" state was most likely Wisconsin. I know RCP didn't even characterize WI as a toss-up state on the day of the election (unlike PA and MI which were). Instead, it was Lean D.

What are your bold predictions for unexpected state flips in 2020? Try to think of states that are most likely to be in the Lean (or even Likely) category on election day. Could any of them unexpectedly flip? Also, try to pick one for each party.

I'll go ahead and say Nevada (unexpected GOP pick-up) and Ohio (unexpected Dem pickup).

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Georgia and/or Texas are the D flips since everyone outside of a handful of people sees them as fool's gold or "not there yet"

New Hampshire and Maine for the GOP

[here2view]

Maine for GOP (most likely Clinton state for Trump IMO) and Texas for Dems

[BaldEagle1991]

Georgia, Texas, Ohio for a Democratic pickup

Nevada, Virginia, Minnesota for a Republican pickup

[Ritz]

Alaska for the Dems. It was a Likely R state in 2016 and the polling always seems to be off but it's the most elastic state in the country and maybe the economy's so bad it happens.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is the key to the election and is the first Trump battleground state that will seal the deal for Biden

In an unlikely Trump win, PA, before his nosedive was tilting R

[S019]

Georgia or Texas for the Democrats (really more so TX, since people acknowledge GA is a tossup or close to it)


New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine or Nevada for the Republicans



Either of these combinations requires a decent win, except GA, which is much closer to flipping than people think. But if Republicans win any of the four states listed above, then of course, Georgia and Texas won't flip, and if Georgia and/or Texas flip, then none of the four states flip.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Maine is absolutely competitive. Biden could win the election while losing Maine.

[Unimog]

Bold predictions?

Here you go:

GA going DEM; MN going GOP

[Podgy the Bear]

For Biden: Georgia, Texas, and (most unexpected) Montana

For Trump: Nothing

[afleitch]

As in really bold?

Montana. Obama was only 2 points adrift here in 2008. Civiqs polling also has Trump in negative approval.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Biden will come "close" in MT

[SnowLabrador]

I think Trump has a decent chance in Minnesota. He only barely lost it in 2016 and he's targeting it heavily this time.

[7,052,770]

As in really bold?

Montana. Obama was only 2 points adrift here in 2008. Civiqs polling also has Trump in negative approval.

I'll go even bolder and say the state Obama lost by less than 4,000 votes in 2008:

Missouri (!?)

[Senator-elect Spark]

FL for Ds, NH for Rs

[Non Swing Voter]

I think OH and SC will be more D than people are predicting.  I don't know if Ohio will flip and I definitely don't think SC will but I think they'll be more D than consensus.  I don't think Cunningham's win was a fluke.

[MT Treasurer]

R -> D: Texas (+SEN), Alaska (+SEN), Ohio

D -> R: Nothing in this kind of environment, but Maine or Minnesota in general (although Maine is certainly more likely than Minnesota)

[Politician]

Ohio, Texas, Iowa, maybe even Montana

[morgankingsley]

Unexpected? Colorado for republicans and Iowa for democrats would be a shock even if either have a less than 5 percent chance of happening

[lfromnj]

As in really bold?

Montana. Obama was only 2 points adrift here in 2008. Civiqs polling also has Trump in negative approval.

Well
https://civiqs.com/results/favorable_joe_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&home_state=California
Tossup California here we go

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL goes Dem early, officially making Trump concede the election

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Trump concede the election

That's the boldest prediction so far.

[pppolitics]

The polls will turn out to be mostly correct.

[Xing]

For Biden: GA, possibly TX
For Trump: ME or MN

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm starting to think that Ohio and Iowa are the real dark horses here.  They swung the hardest to Trump and I think they are going to swing the hardest right back.  At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if both are too close to call well into the night.