I had a similar partial map a couple months ago:
Minnesota probably depends somewhat on whether or not Democrats get total control over redistricting. That probably depends on whether or not Democrats can win back the MN Senate. It has one of the stranger terms, with elections in the 0-2-6 years, so there was no opportunity for a big win in 2018 (like the massive win Democrats had in the MN House).
Either way, I think the current MN-07 is done (and there does seem to be the expectation that one way or the other Colin Peterson will not be running in 2022 anyway, either through defeat or winning one last term). Like most, I expect MN-08 to move west to the ND border, taking in the northern third of the state. That could actually pull it a couple points to the left if drawn right, but the trendlines are very bad. After that, the outstate districts basically draw themselves. If Dems have total control, I think they try lock down the current four districts they have around MSP and maybe tinker around the edges in the outstate districts.
I don't think Democrats would ever try to attempt a 5-2 map unless they somehow won back MN-01 or MN-08 this year (the latter being a much further reach than the former). Even then, it's going to be a monstrosity. I might give it a try soon, but it'd have to involve separating Duluth from the more Republican western areas of the Iron Range and sending it down into the MSP area. A district that runs from the Duluth area and runs down along the Wisconsin border taking in Washington County and ending in Rochester would be almost exactly even between Clinton and Trump. Short of and still possibly including a number of tentacles, that'd leave a contiguous region in MSP stretching to Mankato and St. Cloud at roughly 59-60% two-party vote for Clinton to divide among 4 districts.
I was thinking about something like this:
It was just a rough draft so not even close to perfected or anything of the sort (not to mention dividing the state into 7 parts based on the 2010 Census). It's just to get a visual. The blue district is 1 district that's about 50-50 Clinton-Trump. The yellow area is roughly equal to 4/7 of the population, and close to 60% Clinton two-party share. The purple is about 2 districts that voted just over 2-1 Trump over Clinton. If Dems have full power over the pen, I think they should absolutely go for what I'm showing here. It's not 5-2, more like 4D-2R-1, but I like the D odds in the blue seat. If Nashville is facing a pizza slice, Democrats in other states need to be aggressive and that could and should include Minnesota.
It looks like we had a similar idea in combining the Iron Range with Washington County and parts southeastern MN. I have a tendency to try to keep my gerrymanders somewhat cleaner looking whenever possible, hence combining the Iron Range with Rochester.
